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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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This is the 04z run at 4a. Nice band, but not as good as 03z run. Very minor differences in low placement will make a huge difference. 

EF399C58-222A-464C-8E7C-94CD99594310.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

What does he say about the weekend event?

Seems like the weekend event is much easier to forecast given that it's a progressive front and not dependent on surface lows and deformation bands.   

It's pretty clear that the main front will be snow given time of day and dry air in place so it just comes down to precip amounts.  And the front is through the Seattle area by around dawn followed by a period of strong SW wind.  This would be just a standard frontal passage except for the low dewpoints at the start.     But its not followed by a big warm up... in fact the post frontal showers will likely be in the form of graupel and hail.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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50 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.

IMG_3371.JPG

Never in my wildest dreams would I ever thought today could rival 1/10/17 but somehow it did and even outdid that event. Gotta love snowstorms that way over-perform!!!

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Radar doesn't look great right now, I think 3-4" will be what we end up with. Nice but kind of disappointing compared to the massive snowstorm east metro

I wish we’d gotten an inch, let alone 3”. Brutal, brutal day. Glad Portland homies got something regardless.

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Light snow and 32 at Florence, OR on the Central Coast.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This is kind of the opposite of the January 2017 event in that the higher amounts with that were west side. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Starting to look like this might be a non event IMBY but I’m to really too disappointed with that since I’m gone. The only thing that bugs me about not getting snow is that I probably won’t be able to maximize the low temps the next few days. Though I’m glad there is still potential this weekend the night I get back. Just hoping it doesn’t get pushed forward where it starts before my flight is supposed to get in.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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7 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Starting to look like this might be a non event IMBY but I’m to really too disappointed with that since I’m gone. The only thing that bugs me about not getting snow is that I probably won’t be able to maximize the low temps the next few days. Though I’m glad there is still potential this weekend the night I get back. Just hoping it doesn’t get pushed forward where it starts before my flight is supposed to get in.

When do you arrive?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yep, just finally started sticking and accumulating quick here. Finally got some phat flakes. Down to 31. 

I think you are going to get more than that 1/2” tonight based on radar. Hoping you do well!

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Checking some cameras, we got snarling traffic in Vancouver over the I-5 bridge, I assume for cars spinning out in the snow.  The roads are completely snow covered.  Whatever the issue is, avoid Vancouver right now, traffic is horrible heading south from either freeway.

image.jpeg.c3e5be9296f583646b0d712492f4b381.jpegimage.jpeg.6e4ae3d4049c7936e758be4946033aaf.jpeg

Head north just a bit to Ridgefield and the condition continue to be snowy.

image.jpeg.32524d3592f094af1ec5486970fc2ffe.jpeg

But all the snow disappears less then a dozen miles north once you get to Kalama and Longview.  The roads are just wet. Cameras show non-snowy conditions up into the Seattle metro with Olympia, Tacoma, Seattle, and Everett simply being wet.  No snow on the sides of the roads.  North of Everett, there is now snow. It's cold but no moisture!

image.jpeg.79d95e0f67c0e80ed5b0fcf7239532c4.jpeg

On the Olympic Peninsula, snow again appears in areas north of Queets.  The Hood Canal is seeing some snow on the sides of the roads, but nothing on the roads. 

image.jpeg.c5d36eda68ddc41bc2b562596981a741.jpeg

The snow is very localized to mainly Southwestern Washington and up the Columbia Gorge a bit such as North Bonneville.  The snow gets less and less as you head towards White Salmon until it is merely a dusting at Dallesport.

 image.jpeg.fa81ecbf81dbec7ebcb1841d64ab1e87.jpeg

As for the Portland metro, it's a winter wonderland for a change with white scenes across the PDX.

image.jpeg.0e5211bea40a6be59f5fafcf70d0c8c2.jpeg

image.jpeg.08bda3c5e624639af45a436ab8deeb9f.jpeg

But while the snow remains, the roads simply become wet very quickly as you head east, south, or west of downtown.  It might be snowing/raining in parts of Eugene, but it isn't sticking according to the cameras.

image.jpeg.b8d78a484d9dbc3b315a4dffb225c0a8.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

When do you arrive?

About 8pm Saturday night. Based off the 12z Euro it looks like it starts just a couple hours after I land.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Dumping snow just west of Corvallis. 
 

Also heavy snow on HWY 126 between Florence and Eugene. 

97C4F86A-AFB0-4E58-96C9-8DF952381F65.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

About 8pm Saturday night. Based off the 12z Euro it looks like it starts just a couple hours after I land.

You should be good... it won't start that early.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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There is really dry air in King County right now.   SEA is at 32 with a dewpoint of 12.   It seems unlikely there will be enough precip to overcome the very dry air and the radar does not look too promising.  But I am also hesitant to doubt the ECMWF.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Radar doesn't look great right now, I think 3-4" will be what we end up with. Nice but kind of disappointing compared to the massive snowstorm east metro

There was an intense deformation band sitting over PDX, east metro and southern Clark county for more than 8 hours. Always tough to predict where those will set up and certainly going to be hard to top that. 

I can understand the disappointment though. 

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Best hope is for the southern activity to rotate up the westside, probably in the early morning. Window looks like it maybe extends to 7-8am before the low is finally out of the picture.

Looks like east metro wins again, but at least this winter isn't going to be completely snowless. Pretty amazing event

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4 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Sorta? Jan 2017 had some winners and losers but a LOT more winners.

Image

True, I was thinking that and more widespread. Though we don’t know what will happen over the next 8-12 hours. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The snow is coming down in parts the Lower Mainland but it isn't sticking to the roads.  Abbotsford, Vancouver, Langley, the roads are all bare or just wet.

image.jpeg.cc121773b844a8f2a93e3bc4f712ac00.jpeg

image.jpeg.445b3b1d87db2ee0e25e3d42490acdcb.jpeg

The real snow fall is on Vancouver Island, and in a localized region.  Victoria is seeing a dusting.

image.jpeg.e689f7f2931a82adc7e6b25e4a7e53cb.jpeg

While other more rural areas are seeing the snow come down and begin to consume the roads such as the camera below south of Naniamo.

image.jpeg.260b67f1b650bb6492d5a59c9f61feb3.jpeg

Or check out the snow-crews working on Shawnigan Lake Road. ;)

image.jpeg.0e92a4ca1f1332725db1bedc62832822.jpeg

Further north towards Campbell River, the snow is coming down, but the roads seem bare or wet.

image.jpeg.c601a5fbc1d8f2ea5210a585ac33c9d0.jpeg

It's a snowy time on Vancouver Island!! 

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Radar doesn't look great right now, I think 3-4" will be what we end up with. Nice but kind of disappointing compared to the massive snowstorm east metro

S. Metro curse continues! I’ve got barely .5 inch in Gladstone/OC. Perspective is everything.  Your three inches seems “massive” to me.  Maybe I should rephrase that. 

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1 minute ago, The Blob said:

Big score for me!

20230222_213555.jpg

That’s awesome! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like east metro wins again, but at least this winter isn't going to be completely snowless. Pretty amazing event

Given the models it was a total reverse. I was completely prepared for 2" while you all got hammered. No model got this right. Hoping against hope for some overnight magic there. 

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10 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I think you are going to get more than that 1/2” tonight based on radar. Hoping you do well!

We will see, temps down to 30…but just not getting sustained precip. We’ve slowly been getting more flakes but just enough to barely coat the beauty bark and elevated surfaces. I’m sure eventually some precip will break through and we manage 1/2” or so. Maybe more if we’re lucky. 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some nice enhancement south of Tacoma right now on the radar.

Looks good! Hopefully it can make it up to me. I have had snow overhead for five  hours that has equaled 5 snowflakes!

485B7B07-FFF7-402E-AD96-83786267909C.png

Edited by SouthHillFrosty
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Radar starting to blossom over the south valley. Next band is forming. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.

IMG_3371.JPG

Just need some Xmas lights to top it off

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Genuinely grinning like an idiot at all the OR-flavored joy here right now. So awesome! Y'all deserve it! 🥰

It's definitely sticking here, now. We've had constant, light snow for the last several hours and I think we probably just passed 1/2 inch on gravel and cars, though not sticking to the concrete patio/streets that I can tell. 

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3 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

Just need some Xmas lights to top it off

Yes! One of the reasons why I keep mine up until the end of February! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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