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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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AA06FE39-24F6-4634-AF68-EE50AF9A53FA.jpeg

I didn't see any flakes last night due to the dry air, but I did get a good vantage point to view the virga shield overhead. That last minute jog north the low made, along with a stronger than expected high in eastern WA, caused a stronger E-W pressure gradient than expected, and as a result stronger east winds and drying in the low levels.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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13 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I thought tim said Seattle got some overnight. The radar showed good echos Seattle/west

Seattle got snow yesterday morning.    Those radar echoes were deceiving last night... north of the King/Pierce county line it was pretty much all virga.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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40 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like 6.1" from this storm total. Definitely an amazing storm, that snow overnight was extremely heavy. So much wind and a lot of drifts outside. Received 3-4" from 1 to 3 am with those bands

Nice, you beat me! About 4" here total we with some melting yesterday. Depth stands just over 3" in the grass.  Hoping to maybe equal that Saturday overnight.

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Down to 22 now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, smerfylicious said:

I didn't even get a flake in Gold Bar, but that's okay. I got 16" in November, so I can't be too greedy I guess. I'm just happy for everyone else. Maybe I'll score this weekend or something.

Just flurries here but the models have been very consistent that my best chances come later.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Should be some very respectable min/maxes the next few days then remain pretty chilly in the longer range. Going to be a close call if we manage to stay below freezing today. Think we end up hitting 33…but we will see. Likely won’t see 40 degrees until Sunday. Getting excited for the Saturday night system. Probably going to have to pull an all-nighter for that one. 

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Nice, you beat me! About 4" here total we with some melting yesterday. Depth stands just over 3" in the grass.  Hoping to maybe equal that Saturday overnight.

Most of our snow fell around 1-2 am when it was in the mid 20 so no melting yet. I wasn't expecting much after the initial 2" of snow but then that extremely heavy band overnight was a great surprise. Never seen snow that heavy.

 

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I'm pretty sure La Nina is dead SST wise gonna a take 4 weeks for atmospheric pattern to change up so likely gonna be very Nina like thru at least late March somewhere 20th of March on up pattern may change. 

Screenshot_20230223-073612.png

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Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft

Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft

☥𓂀✡️

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6 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

I'm pretty sure La Nina is dead SST wise gonna a take 4 weeks for atmospheric pattern to change up so likely gonna be very Nina like thru at least late March somewhere 20th of March on up pattern may change. 

Screenshot_20230223-073612.png

Yeah... significant warming over the last week.

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

nino34.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13F and cold outside.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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12 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

I'm pretty sure La Nina is dead SST wise gonna a take 4 weeks for atmospheric pattern to change up so likely gonna be very Nina like thru at least late March somewhere 20th of March on up pattern may change. 

Screenshot_20230223-073612.png

La Nina is definitely just about done. CPC has raised odds of Nino next winter to 65%.

Ensembles definitely hinting at a strong +PNA sometime in mid March. An early spring would be great, I've never been a fan of cool springs as it delays the trees!

Screenshot_20230223-075040~2.png

Screenshot_20230223-075025~2.png

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Heading to Whistler tomorrow and the wind chill is -48 up top right now. Told my friends who are already there to stay on the lower runs today if they don’t want literal frostbite. Hopefully they take me seriously. 😅

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I think birds coming in for spring maybe 10-15 days late on arrival vs normal this year with the weather. First few of Swallows should have showed up a few days ago around parts of Puget Sound Region but nothing yet. 

Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft

Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft

☥𓂀✡️

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9 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Higher elevations of the Santa Cruz Mountains tend to get an accumulating snowfall every other year or so. Unusual, but not super-rare, either.

Its obviously Elevation dependent.  I lived 5 years around 1000' in Lompico area of Felton.  never saw a flake, but the higher mtns over 3k-3500k get snow pretty much every winter

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I still haven’t had any takers for last years celery…

Temp down to 25.5. Crazy to go from nearly 3” of rain just a few days ago, to a windstorm,  to a surprise snowstorm, to the air and ground being sooo dry and cold now! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, clipper_range said:

Sure hope the trends continue for regional snow Sat/Sun period. The wind stole the snow from the E. P.S.. Better consensus coming up!

It’s looking like the most solid snow set up this winter so far across the region. It’s an overrunning event unfortunately, but there will probably be some low elevation snow at times next week as well. 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s looking like the most solid snow set up this winter so far across the region. It’s an overrunning event unfortunately, but there will probably be some low elevation snow at times next week as well. 

I agree, my optimism says: " It could be a fun storm non the less". Late winter fun is better than none.

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