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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We should get 2-3 inches with the main front.   Interestingly the models show the strongest SW wind gusts in the foothills on Sunday.    But it will be a cold SW wind with convective precip and sun breaks.     There could be occasional snow out here in the post-frontal action despite a roaring SW wind.   Unusual set up.

Hey, 2-3 inches is something, but D**n, wanted more :)

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4 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

Hey, 2-3 inches is something, but D**n, wanted more :)

This period from sunday through next week is very much like a period i had in feb 19. There will be a ton of wet snow here next week above 500ft. Between sunday and friday i would imagine i should get 10-14 inches total.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

DP 6 here in Belltown Seattle 

This ridiculously dry air is what sets the stage for Saturday night.    The upper levels are not that cold with that system and it would just be cold rain for the most of the lowlands without this pre-existing air mass.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Stunning morning here. Partly sunny and 25 degrees after a low of 24. East winds coming in gusts of 35-40mph and swirling snow everywhere. Haven’t gone out and measured since last night, but it looks like we ended up right around 10”, maybe a little more.

FUKKK YES!!!

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

This ridiculously dry air is what sets the stage for Saturday night.    The upper levels are not that cold with that system and it would just be cold rain for the most of the lowlands without this pre-existing air mass.  

And we are going into another chilly post shower air mass so the snow wont just melt very fast.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And we are going into another chilly post shower air mass so the snow wont just melt very fast.

Yeah... the models show low 40s on Sunday but with a dewpoint around 30.     Can't remember that much dewpoint suppression with a strong SW wind.    The ECMWF shows the SW wind could gust close to 50 mph in the foothills on Sunday afternoon and yet any precip would likely be some sort of frozen variety.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Pretty wild to see PDX holding at 26 degrees as of 9am. If there’s a day they have a shot at their first ever sub-freezing high in the last week of February, it’s today. Widespread 8-10” on the ground, clouds at times, and raging east winds along with stout CAA.

Also pretty curious to see what happens with lows the next couple nights.

Edited by Cascadia_Wx
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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Stunning morning here. Partly sunny and 25 degrees after a low of 24. East winds coming in gusts of 35-40mph and swirling snow everywhere. Haven’t gone out and measured since last night, but it looks like we ended up right around 10”, maybe a little more.

This was my favorite event of the winter so far. 

Because it was snowing in many places not just my area.

It was 23-24 degrees with wind and snow, very rare,

it wont get above freezing today at home with 5 inches on the ground. Very rare. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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This event reminds me of Feb 3rd/4th of 2019 up here. Had heavy 23 degree snow from a deformation band with a super brisk northerly wind for hours that resulted in 8 inches of beautiful powdery snow. 

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the models show low 40s on Sunday but with a dewpoint around 30.     Can't remember that much dewpoint suppression with a strong SW wind.    The ECMWF shows the SW wind could gust close to 50 mph in the foothills on Sunday afternoon and yet any precip would likely be some sort of frozen variety.  

Low 40's where? Seattle proper or all of western washington? 36-43 will be a safe range most likely. I could see 40-43 around tacoma and 34-38 around shelton up through the canal and port angles.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Low 40's where? Seattle proper or all of western washington? 36-43 will be a safe range most likely. I could see 40-43 around tacoma and 34-38 around shelton up through the canal and port angles.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-7456000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This was my favorite event of the winter so far. 

Because it was snowing in many places not just my area.

It was 23-24 degrees with wind and snow, very rare,

it wont get above freezing today at home with 5 inches on the ground. Very rare. 

But the thunder and snow i had in december was bad a**.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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All these incredible snow reports while we barely have enough to coat the ground here.   No sun yet but it's probably coming soon.   Won't melt anything today though. 

20230223_091159.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-7456000.png

Thanks, we will see. The euro has been really far off some places and good in others. You were right it struggles with this area over here with cold air pool.  I will bet money it wont be warmer than 36 here sunday.  It has been off as much as 8 degrees this winter for highs.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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On 2/17/2023 at 11:08 AM, yellowstone said:

I’m dumbstruck that this is real. This event is 5 days away and they’re making 0.1” snowfall predictions?!?  Even with the range, this is insane. 

Re-upping this today for no particular reason. Hope this encourages them never to post something this detailed this far out again. Adding the photo directly to the post for clarity. 8DE6E6D2-3411-4B3D-9A3C-D6892B6E82EA.jpeg.d2292c3bc35460b92f4674c43a5cea2c.jpeg

 

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SREF ensemble plumes showing that temperatures have stayed warmer than forecast this morning at SEA.

Looking toward the weekend, plumes are showing trace-2.5 inches of snow for SEA. Notable that no members have zero, so everyone should see some snow. Although these plumes default to a 10:1 ratio which is unlikely given temperatures will be around the freezing mark, so may need to shave off about 25% of these amounts.

SEA2.png

SEA1.png

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