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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

WOW

xww_snowacc.108.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.dkQX8O1ebs.webp

Hood Canal special!  

FWIW... the ECMWF has been showing that relative donut hole around SW King County and NE Pierce County as well.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Fircrest said:

Yeah, it seems like we don't do as well as other areas quite often.  I live one block east of the UP/Fircrest border just south of the golf course.

Yea, we are close to each other, im right down by Fred Meyer... 67th & Bridgeport. You are at least a 100 ft in elevation over me so you do better in sticking snow than I do.

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The NWS in Portland is a joke. Plenty of us saw this coming well before they did and they went out with a WWA that expired at noon yesterday. I know its a hard job but come on? There was plenty of model data and real time analysis/observations that said the PDX metro was likely to experience a significant event. Funniest part is this guy was promoted to lead forecaster a month ago and starts his tenure with an epic bust.
 

 

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Well, worst fears realized.  I did learn a few things, though. 

We ended up with about 1/2".  Rain till about 6pm when temp started to drop from 37f to 32f about 7pm.  Wifey and I jumped in the truck because i wanted to see what was happening above us.  We're in a small valley along Clear Creek that runs into the Clackamas River, 6 miles away in Carver.  We're in a triangle between  Redland, Carver and Estacada.  Carver is about 5 miles from Sunnyside.  Big increase in snow amounts as you head west and NW.  Much more east wind. 

We climbed up the hill to Springwater Rd to 450' elevation.  At that point the east wind was starting to ramp up but was relatively quiet at our place only a mile away.  We headed east towards McIver Park which is at 850' and there was just a dusting and little wind.  We turned around and headed back west.  At 200' at Carver there was several inches and strong east wind.  Mother in law 5 miles further west had 9". 

Same thing happened in '17.  The geography of my specific area doesn't initially get the early big push of colder east wind air.  Everyone west of me does.  They got snow.  Until the colder air mixes in in my spot I get rain.  The other thing was precip rates.  I got .21'of rain yesterday but it was never heavy.  When the rates picked up9about 6pm) , that also helped drop the temps.  Between that and cold air mixing in, then I got snow. 

It was another disappointing day but even with a small amount of snow on the creek it's gorgeous out.  Truly happy for everyone that scored.  It's a celebration.  It's just where I live.  It's a microclimate that sucks in these kinds of events.  I learned some things and that's always a good thing. 

IMG_1307.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The NWS in Portland is a joke. Plenty of us saw this coming well before they did and they went out with a WWA that expired at noon yesterday. I know its a hard job but come on? There was plenty of model data and real time analysis/observations that said the PDX metro was likely to experience a significant event. Funniest part is this guy was promoted to lead forecaster a month ago and starts his tenure with an epic bust.
 

 

Lol, I don’t understand. Do they only look at their one model? People were posting multiple different models in the 48 hour lead up that showed this as a possibility. 

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11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

or_snowacc.108.0000.gif

Looks like it could be a big one up here. 
 

Down in Silverton now. They got 1-2” in town. Drippy and 33 now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Lol, I don’t understand. Do they only look at their one model? People were posting multiple different models in the 48 hour lead up that showed this as a possibility. 

Sometimes the model needs to be turned off and the brain needs to be turned on. What has happened in the past when we had a sub 1000mb low spinning off the coast of Astoria for 20 hrs with a cold enough airmass for snow? 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 hour ago, FroYoBro said:

Went out and we have 4.5 inches on the ground. Temperature has dropped another degree to 27 since sunrise. It’s amazing out there! 

I don't have the 'steel jaw trap' memory and recall that many on here have, and even though we only received around 3" total, the raging east wind while it was coming down last night was top-tier.  Then walking my boy this morning the biting wind, 25 degrees,  and blowing snow with some sun breaking through truly made this one of the better ones.  So happy that many of you scored!

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Live look at Coquille, OR.

F27165AF-A128-435A-966A-0B7F7FB11550.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Euro and WRF are remarkably in lockstep for Saturday night’s storm.

EB66C975-5792-46BA-879B-C9C6C15B9E23.thumb.gif.5fe871b13f3ae21ea47cec92fd8f8403.gifD46E906A-FB17-4B54-A86F-D4B847B7C320.thumb.jpeg.dfa80430e04fd29eaa829f6a143f6c8a.jpeg

Yeah... its a relatively easy set up for the models given that its a progressive front and not dependent on surface lows and deformation bands.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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22 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

Re-upping this today for no particular reason. Hope this encourages them never to post something this detailed this far out again. Adding the photo directly to the post for clarity. 8DE6E6D2-3411-4B3D-9A3C-D6892B6E82EA.jpeg.d2292c3bc35460b92f4674c43a5cea2c.jpeg

 

Intern was on shrooms when they did that.  I get it.  I like shrooms too

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33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-7456000.png

Those are actually extremely cold highs for the end of February. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Those are actually extremely cold highs for the end of February. 

For sure... and then factor in that dewpoints are at or below freezing.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Both the GFS and GEM looked great. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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22 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The NWS in Portland is a joke. Plenty of us saw this coming well before they did and they went out with a WWA that expired at noon yesterday. I know its a hard job but come on? There was plenty of model data and real time analysis/observations that said the PDX metro was likely to experience a significant event. Funniest part is this guy was promoted to lead forecaster a month ago and starts his tenure with an epic bust.
 

 

I too love to spread misinformation over the internet.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hood Canal special!  

FWIW... the ECMWF has been showing that relative donut hole around SW King County and NE Pierce County as well.

Don’t rain on my parade Tim…..

But yea this isn’t a good placement for the Tacoma area. I definitely agree that area will get shadowed. I have seen it many times before 

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McMinnville getting destroyed.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Deterministic and ensemble members remain in lockstep with each other regarding the Saturday system, starting to nudge onto the coast mid to late Saturday afternoon but not becoming a widespread concern until Saturday evening. The timing of the entrance of this front, given that cold air will remain in place, looks to be conducive to another round of lowland snowfall. Projected amounts look to be a little higher than the previous round. That being said, it does spread this snowfall out over a 36 hour period that extends into the long term, making for a complicated forecast thanks to daytime heating. Since this would start at the very earliest in the fourth period, no headline decisions need to be made at this time. I used to write blue book essays for exams in college. Where If I didn't study or know the material, I would try to BS my way through Sometimes I succeeded-most times not. But this write up takes the cake. How to write a forecast without saying anything. Thanks Seattle NWS!   

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I really hope that South Sound snowhole isn’t that terrible, I don’t have it in me to be burned time and time again especially with a good event this weekend while the rest of the Sound scores.  

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Don’t rain on my parade Tim…..

But yea this isn’t a good placement for the Tacoma area. I definitely agree that area will get shadowed. I have seen it many times before 

Even the ECMWF shows 1.5-2 inches in that relative donut hole... its going to snow!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Even the ECMWF shows 1.5-2 inches in that relative donut hole... its going to snow!

Oh I know it will! I have done well this year and can’t complain. It would be nice to see a regional snowstorm without any major donut holes but that is impossible😂😂😂

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