PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[ShawniganLake]

Some unofficial reports of 16-24” totals from the strait effect snow squalls just north of Nanaimo. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

McMinnville getting destroyed.

We were just down there for my great great Aunt’s 100th Birthday on Saturday.

[DDDRWx]

43 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Rod Hill says non event on Saturday night. 

I watched Rodney yesterday morning (trace to an inch) and told my wife, 'Look at the 6Z Euro, it shows 8" of snow, there is no way he is right.'  Believe it or not, she actually looked at it and quoted it to one of her friends! 

[T-Town]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Oh I know it will! I have done well this year and can’t complain. It would be nice to see a regional snowstorm without any major donut holes but that is impossible

I can’t complain either. However, please be prepared for some complaining. 

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We were just down there for my great great Aunt’s 100th Birthday on Saturday.

I was there Saturday too at the waterpark

[Deweydog]

Breezy!

First time in our 13 years here that we’ve had legit blowing/drifting. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We were just down there for my great great Aunt’s 100th Birthday on Saturday.

Wow 100?

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Breezy!

First time in our 13 years here that we’ve had legit blowing/drifting. 

This whole sequence has had some real teeth to it. Old school feel.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Breezy!

First time in our 13 years here that we’ve had legit blowing/drifting. 

This is one for the records man. There is something very special to see it do that west of the cascades.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

I can’t complain either. However, please be prepared for some complaining. 

I already got some “weenie” posts lined up and ready to go

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

This whole sequence has had some real teeth to it. Old school feel.

And we are just getting started with this cold period. Probable a couple more cold trough's coming.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow 100?

Yeah. She’s my grandma’s dad’s sister, on my dad’s side of the family, if that makes any sense.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And we are just getting started with this cold period. Probable a couple more cold trough's coming.

Hard to even wrap your head around. It boggles the mind to think what low temps could look like tomorrow and Friday morning in places where it clears out and the wind dies off, with a cold airmass overhead and deep snowcover.

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This whole sequence has had some real teeth to it. Old school feel.

Can’t help but wonder “what If this happened January 1st”?

[Snownerd3000]

23 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Intern was on shrooms when they did that.  I get it.  I like shrooms too

Did they promote the intern to head met? I'd be pissed if I was a normie and got stuck in my car overnight in those conditions like some did.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

28 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Oakland Hills at 800' 

Wonder what it’s doing on Mt. Davidson in SF. That's around 900' IIRC.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I already got some “weenie” posts lined up and ready to go

Worked great for me on Tuesday night when I weenied all over the forum…Then woke up to a massive surprise nearly 3” of snow! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Timmy said:

Can’t help but wonder “what If this happened January 1st”?

I ask myself that every day Andrew.

[RentonHill]

nooooooooooo

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This whole sequence has had some real teeth to it. Old school feel.

Just so rare to get a decent dump going into a big advection event here. 2/14 we had the inverse with the big advection followed quickly by the snow, but by then we had transitioned to more of a gap wind.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF snow with main frontal passage... which is through the area by 7 a.m. on Sunday morning.  

[Timmy]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I ask myself that every day Andrew.

I’m not Andrew you silly goose

[MossMan]

From my relatives in Minnesota! 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows the temp in Seattle is around 34 or 35 during the snow event but the dewpoint is around 30 at that time. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

From my relatives in Minnesota! 

Too funny... I just saw a FB post from a friend in MN asking where her mailbox was.  

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF snow with main frontal passage... which is through the area by 7 a.m. on Sunday morning.  

Looks okayish…However I’m going with the rock solid WRF!!! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Some preliminary snow numbers so far and there’s still some snow falling across the area too.

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks okayish…However I’m going with the rock solid WRF!!! 

Wind maps are interesting for Sunday afternoon... gusting over 40 mph out here while its basically calm in your area.   Probably c-zone in the calm area.

 

[Perturbed Member]

40 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Lol, I don’t understand. Do they only look at their one model? People were posting multiple different models in the 48 hour lead up that showed this as a possibility. 

They seemed to only be looking at the NBM and the SREF. Both of which were never on board for more than 1 inch of snow for PDX and were completely at odds with most of the other models. By the 00z Suite Tuesday night, you had pretty much every global and mesoscale model on board for a major event except the NAM. You had an arctic airmass approaching from the east and you had a low that was already looking pretty organized on satellite approaching the NW OR coast. Doesn't take a genius to figure out there could be big potential from that.  

I'm willing to cut a lot of slack for people forecasting snow in our region because it can be really challenging but this was completely inexcusable. Have you seen the traffic maps in Portland the past 24 hours? This type of negligence and incompetence has consequences. 

This guy trying to go on Twitter to blame the models is just pathetic. The PDX NWS is getting raked over the coals for this one and they deserve it. There should be consequences for waiting until an event starts or ends before issuing advisories and warnings, it completely defeats the purpose of it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In North Salem on the river and it’s snowing and 33.

Silverton was sunny and drippy, but the amount of snow increased toward Salem, I’d say 2-3” in north Salem/Keizer and coming down pretty good. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Models showing a solid 4-6” here on Sunday morning. NWS says 1000’ snow level down here at least. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

I really hope that South Sound snowhole isn’t that terrible, I don’t have it in me to be burned time and time again especially with a good event this weekend while the rest of the Sound scores.  

In that case, move out of Fife.

[MikeInEverett]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wind maps are interesting for Sunday afternoon... gusting over 40 mph out here while its basically calm in your area.   Probably c-zone in the calm area.

 

That gives me some hope, worried about that snow hole with the main front creeping closer to me.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF snow with main frontal passage... which is through the area by 7 a.m. on Sunday morning.  

Very consistent. Can you show precip for same period.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

They seemed to only be looking at the NBM and the SREF. Both of which were never on board for more than 1 inch of snow for PDX and were completely at odds with most of the other models. By the 00z Suite Tuesday night, you had pretty much every global and mesoscale model on board for a major event except the NAM. You had an arctic airmass approaching from the east and you had a low that was already looking pretty organized on satellite approaching the NW OR coast. Doesn't take a genius to figure out there could be big potential from that.  

I'm willing to cut a lot of slack for people forecasting snow in our region because it can be really challenging but this was completely inexcusable. Have you seen the traffic maps in Portland the past 24 hours? This type of negligence and incompetence has consequences. 

This guy trying to go on Twitter to blame the models is just pathetic. The PDX NWS is getting raked over the coals for this one and they deserve it. There should be consequences for waiting until an event starts or ends before issuing advisories and warnings, it completely defeats the purpose of it. 

One of my wife’s counterparts who works at Legacy Emanuel left work at 3:45 yesterday and arrived home in Vancouver at 9:15.

[TT-SEA]

Scattered areas of snow on Monday and Monday night.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Very consistent. Can you show precip for same period.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows the temp in Seattle is around 34 or 35 during the snow event but the dewpoint is around 30 at that time. 

Under heavy snowfall that temp will hit 32 no problem.

[SpaceRace22]

12 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

They seemed to only be looking at the NBM and the SREF. Both of which were never on board for more than 1 inch of snow for PDX and were completely at odds with most of the other models. By the 00z Suite Tuesday night, you had pretty much every global and mesoscale model on board for a major event except the NAM. You had an arctic airmass approaching from the east and you had a low that was already looking pretty organized on satellite approaching the NW OR coast. Doesn't take a genius to figure out there could be big potential from that.  

I'm willing to cut a lot of slack for people forecasting snow in our region because it can be really challenging but this was completely inexcusable. Have you seen the traffic maps in Portland the past 24 hours? This type of negligence and incompetence has consequences. 

This guy trying to go on Twitter to blame the models is just pathetic. The PDX NWS is getting raked over the coals for this one and they deserve it. There should be consequences for waiting until an event starts or ends before issuing advisories and warnings, it completely defeats the purpose of it. 

I am normally extremely defensive of professional mets who are overly conservative in their forecasts, but this honestly seems like a case of straight up malpractice.

It really does seem like they only looked at their seriously flawed NBM and took it as gospel. I can absolutely understand remaining skeptical of some of the higher end solutions that were shown, but to completely discount the possibility of *anything* happening is just mind blowing to me.

It's not like there was only one outlandish solution from one crappy model that was showing that something could happen. I hope the Portland NWS takes a serious and honest look within after this and figures out what the hell happened here.

They are way too married to their statistical analysis forecast voodoo and it really came back to bite them this time. I just hope that no one who got stuck in their car overnight ended up dying.

[Meatyorologist]

41 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

@Meatyorologist laid it out perfectly ahead of time, and he's like 15

I'm going to legally drink away the memory of this post