Jump to content

PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


Recommended Posts

19 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Worked great for me on Tuesday night when I weenied all over the forum…Then woke up to a massive surprise nearly 3” of snow! 

Febuary 8, 2019 was a massive success for weenie mode for me. Woke up to a fresh 9" the next morning!

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I am normally extremely defensive of professional mets who are overly conservative in their forecasts, but this honestly seems like a case of straight up malpractice.

It really does seem like they only looked at their seriously flawed NBM and took it as gospel. I can absolutely understand remaining skeptical of some of the higher end solutions that were shown, but to completely discount the possibility of *anything* happening is just mind blowing to me.

It's not like there was only one outlandish solution from one crappy model that was showing that something could happen. I hope the Portland NWS takes a serious and honest look within after this and figures out what the hell happened here.

They are way too married to their statistical analysis forecast voodoo and it really came back to bite them this time. I just hope that no one who got stuck in their car overnight ended up dying.

well technically the NBM is a blend of pretty much every other model.  But yeah, I get your point

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

well technically the NBM is a blend of pretty much every other model.  But yeah, I get your point

From my understanding there's a little more under the hood to it than that. If it were a straight up blend of every model it wouldn't have shown they tr-1" output with a high end of 2" like it did.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

ECMWF shows another vigorous front one week from today... and its close to lowland snow.     The difference is that there is not really dry air in place ahead of that one.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7801600.png

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Aaron Rodgers just left Oregon before the snow came!

“Aaron Rodgers has emerged from his darkness retreat, according to the owner of the facility in southern Oregon where the Green Bay Packersquarterback spent the past several days and nights.

Scott Berman, who owns Sky Cave Retreats, said Rodgers left the dark room and the facility Wednesday.”

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35717301/aaron-rodgers-leaves-oregon-facility-ends-darkness-retreat

  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

From my understanding there's a little more under the hood to it than that. If it were a straight up blend of every model it wouldn't have shown they tr-1" output with a high end of 2" like it did.

I'm sure there is, but thats how I've always understood it.

 

The National Blend of Models (NBM) is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance. The goal of the NBM is to create a highly accurate, skillful and consistent starting point for the gridded forecast. This new way to produce NDFD grids will be helpful providing forecasters with a suite of information to use for their forecasts. The NBM is considered an important part of the efforts to evolve NWS capabilities to achieve a Weather-Ready Nation.

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm#:~:text=What is NBM%3F,and post-processed model guidance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NBM MODEL INPUTS

 
NBM MODEL INPUTS: These are the model inputs and sources for the NBM v4.1. Model names with an * are new to NBM v4.1
Model Name Agency Resolution Cycles/Day Members Cycles Updated
ACCESS-G BoM Australia 12 km 2x 1 07, 19
ACCESS-GE * BoM Australia 35 km 4x 18 02, 08, 14, 20
EC MOSD ECMWF N/A (Stations only) 2x 1 08, 20
EC MOSE ECMWF N/A (Stations only) 2x 50 09, 21
ECMWFD ECMWF 25 km 2x 1 08, 20
ECMWFE ECMWF 50 km 2x 50 09, 21
GDPS CMC Canada 25 km 2x 1 05, 17
GEPS CMC Canada 50 km 2x 20 07, 19
GEFS NCEP 25 km 4x 30 01, 07, 13, 19
GFS NCEP 13 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GFS MOS STN NCEP N/A (Stations only) 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
GLMP NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 Every hour
GMOS NCEP 2.5 km 2x 1 07, 19
HiResW ARW NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HiResW ARW MEM2 NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HiResW FV3 NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HMON NCEP 1.5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
HREF NCEP 5 km 2x 8 07, 19
HRRR NCEP 3 km 24x 1 Every hour
HRRR-EXT NCEP 3 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
HWRF NCEP 1.5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
LAMPMOS NCEP N/A (Stations only) 24x 1 Every hour
MELD NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 Every hour
MMEBC NCEP/WPC 5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
NAM NCEP 12 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAMMOS NCEP N/A (Stations only) 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAMNest NCEP 3 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAVGEMD FNMOC 50 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
NAVGEME FNMOC 50 km 2x 20 06, 18
RAP NCEP 13 km 24x 1 Every hour
RAP-EXT NCEP 13 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
RDPS CMC Canada 10 km 4x 1 04, 10, 16, 22
REPS CMC Canada 15 km 2x 20 07, 19
RTMA NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 every hour
QMD MDL 2.5 km 4x 1 01, 07, 13, 19
SREF NCEP 16 km 4x 24 01, 07, 13, 19
REWPS * CMC Canada 2.5 km 2x 20 05, 17
GEPS Waves CMC Canada 25 km 2x 20 07, 19
NAVGEMD Waves FNMOC 100 km 2x 1 07, 19
NAVGEME Waves FNMOC 50 km 2x 20 07, 19
GFS WW3D Waves NCEP 25 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GEFS WW3E Waves NCEP 25 km 4x 30 01, 07, 13, 19
WW3D HIRES Waves NCEP 9-17 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GLWU Waves NCEP 2.5 km 4x 1 02, 08, 14, 20
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I am normally extremely defensive of professional mets who are overly conservative in their forecasts, but this honestly seems like a case of straight up malpractice.

It really does seem like they only looked at their seriously flawed NBM and took it as gospel. I can absolutely understand remaining skeptical of some of the higher end solutions that were shown, but to completely discount the possibility of *anything* happening is just mind blowing to me.

It's not like there was only one outlandish solution from one crappy model that was showing that something could happen. I hope the Portland NWS takes a serious and honest look within after this and figures out what the hell happened here.

They are way too married to their statistical analysis forecast voodoo and it really came back to bite them this time. I just hope that no one who got stuck in their car overnight ended up dying.

Yeah at the very least with 1/10/17 it was completely out of left field and they adapted quickly-- no model knew anything of the likes was on the way. With this event we had models and very consistent ones adamant that *someone* would get heavy and disruptive snow. The event didn't pan out like any one model prediction (except maybe yesterday's 18Z EURO) but the point is the ingredients were there and most people didn't even think to leave work early let alone stock up on supplies or cancel plans. I'd definitely consider this a forecast failure from most everyone-- not that it makes the NWS any less awesome than they already are mind you (they do excellent work 99% of the time). But definitely a good reminder that maybe complete reliance on the CAMs or the NBM can be (as in this case) horrifically misleading and even the chance of a significant (unlikely) snowstorm should have been mentioned.

https://twitter.com/BonnieSilkman/status/1628727831391010818?s=20

  • Like 2

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Similar to what we had up here yesterday morning. Took my sister 40 minutes to go from one end of Stanwood to the other yesterday morning. Kitsap’s turn this morning! 

8420E826-40C5-4511-A0C3-406C70761E1D.jpeg

  • scream 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

NBM MODEL INPUTS

 
NBM MODEL INPUTS: These are the model inputs and sources for the NBM v4.1. Model names with an * are new to NBM v4.1
Model Name Agency Resolution Cycles/Day Members Cycles Updated
ACCESS-G BoM Australia 12 km 2x 1 07, 19
ACCESS-GE * BoM Australia 35 km 4x 18 02, 08, 14, 20
EC MOSD ECMWF N/A (Stations only) 2x 1 08, 20
EC MOSE ECMWF N/A (Stations only) 2x 50 09, 21
ECMWFD ECMWF 25 km 2x 1 08, 20
ECMWFE ECMWF 50 km 2x 50 09, 21
GDPS CMC Canada 25 km 2x 1 05, 17
GEPS CMC Canada 50 km 2x 20 07, 19
GEFS NCEP 25 km 4x 30 01, 07, 13, 19
GFS NCEP 13 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GFS MOS STN NCEP N/A (Stations only) 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
GLMP NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 Every hour
GMOS NCEP 2.5 km 2x 1 07, 19
HiResW ARW NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HiResW ARW MEM2 NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HiResW FV3 NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HMON NCEP 1.5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
HREF NCEP 5 km 2x 8 07, 19
HRRR NCEP 3 km 24x 1 Every hour
HRRR-EXT NCEP 3 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
HWRF NCEP 1.5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
LAMPMOS NCEP N/A (Stations only) 24x 1 Every hour
MELD NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 Every hour
MMEBC NCEP/WPC 5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
NAM NCEP 12 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAMMOS NCEP N/A (Stations only) 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAMNest NCEP 3 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAVGEMD FNMOC 50 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
NAVGEME FNMOC 50 km 2x 20 06, 18
RAP NCEP 13 km 24x 1 Every hour
RAP-EXT NCEP 13 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
RDPS CMC Canada 10 km 4x 1 04, 10, 16, 22
REPS CMC Canada 15 km 2x 20 07, 19
RTMA NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 every hour
QMD MDL 2.5 km 4x 1 01, 07, 13, 19
SREF NCEP 16 km 4x 24 01, 07, 13, 19
REWPS * CMC Canada 2.5 km 2x 20 05, 17
GEPS Waves CMC Canada 25 km 2x 20 07, 19
NAVGEMD Waves FNMOC 100 km 2x 1 07, 19
NAVGEME Waves FNMOC 50 km 2x 20 07, 19
GFS WW3D Waves NCEP 25 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GEFS WW3E Waves NCEP 25 km 4x 30 01, 07, 13, 19
WW3D HIRES Waves NCEP 9-17 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GLWU Waves NCEP 2.5 km 4x 1 02, 08, 14, 20

There is so many more models we can model ride with !!!!

  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

NBM MODEL INPUTS

 
NBM MODEL INPUTS: These are the model inputs and sources for the NBM v4.1. Model names with an * are new to NBM v4.1
Model Name Agency Resolution Cycles/Day Members Cycles Updated
ACCESS-G BoM Australia 12 km 2x 1 07, 19
ACCESS-GE * BoM Australia 35 km 4x 18 02, 08, 14, 20
EC MOSD ECMWF N/A (Stations only) 2x 1 08, 20
EC MOSE ECMWF N/A (Stations only) 2x 50 09, 21
ECMWFD ECMWF 25 km 2x 1 08, 20
ECMWFE ECMWF 50 km 2x 50 09, 21
GDPS CMC Canada 25 km 2x 1 05, 17
GEPS CMC Canada 50 km 2x 20 07, 19
GEFS NCEP 25 km 4x 30 01, 07, 13, 19
GFS NCEP 13 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GFS MOS STN NCEP N/A (Stations only) 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
GLMP NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 Every hour
GMOS NCEP 2.5 km 2x 1 07, 19
HiResW ARW NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HiResW ARW MEM2 NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HiResW FV3 NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HMON NCEP 1.5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
HREF NCEP 5 km 2x 8 07, 19
HRRR NCEP 3 km 24x 1 Every hour
HRRR-EXT NCEP 3 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
HWRF NCEP 1.5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
LAMPMOS NCEP N/A (Stations only) 24x 1 Every hour
MELD NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 Every hour
MMEBC NCEP/WPC 5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
NAM NCEP 12 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAMMOS NCEP N/A (Stations only) 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAMNest NCEP 3 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAVGEMD FNMOC 50 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
NAVGEME FNMOC 50 km 2x 20 06, 18
RAP NCEP 13 km 24x 1 Every hour
RAP-EXT NCEP 13 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
RDPS CMC Canada 10 km 4x 1 04, 10, 16, 22
REPS CMC Canada 15 km 2x 20 07, 19
RTMA NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 every hour
QMD MDL 2.5 km 4x 1 01, 07, 13, 19
SREF NCEP 16 km 4x 24 01, 07, 13, 19
REWPS * CMC Canada 2.5 km 2x 20 05, 17
GEPS Waves CMC Canada 25 km 2x 20 07, 19
NAVGEMD Waves FNMOC 100 km 2x 1 07, 19
NAVGEME Waves FNMOC 50 km 2x 20 07, 19
GFS WW3D Waves NCEP 25 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GEFS WW3E Waves NCEP 25 km 4x 30 01, 07, 13, 19
WW3D HIRES Waves NCEP 9-17 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GLWU Waves NCEP 2.5 km 4x 1 02, 08, 14, 20

blending good models might be a better way to start

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty snowy at the office in Salem. 

CD760FF9-86B5-4003-A443-55BD9266D644.jpeg

  • Like 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

NBM MODEL INPUTS

 
NBM MODEL INPUTS: These are the model inputs and sources for the NBM v4.1. Model names with an * are new to NBM v4.1
Model Name Agency Resolution Cycles/Day Members Cycles Updated
ACCESS-G BoM Australia 12 km 2x 1 07, 19
ACCESS-GE * BoM Australia 35 km 4x 18 02, 08, 14, 20
EC MOSD ECMWF N/A (Stations only) 2x 1 08, 20
EC MOSE ECMWF N/A (Stations only) 2x 50 09, 21
ECMWFD ECMWF 25 km 2x 1 08, 20
ECMWFE ECMWF 50 km 2x 50 09, 21
GDPS CMC Canada 25 km 2x 1 05, 17
GEPS CMC Canada 50 km 2x 20 07, 19
GEFS NCEP 25 km 4x 30 01, 07, 13, 19
GFS NCEP 13 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GFS MOS STN NCEP N/A (Stations only) 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
GLMP NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 Every hour
GMOS NCEP 2.5 km 2x 1 07, 19
HiResW ARW NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HiResW ARW MEM2 NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HiResW FV3 NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HMON NCEP 1.5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
HREF NCEP 5 km 2x 8 07, 19
HRRR NCEP 3 km 24x 1 Every hour
HRRR-EXT NCEP 3 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
HWRF NCEP 1.5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
LAMPMOS NCEP N/A (Stations only) 24x 1 Every hour
MELD NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 Every hour
MMEBC NCEP/WPC 5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
NAM NCEP 12 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAMMOS NCEP N/A (Stations only) 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAMNest NCEP 3 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAVGEMD FNMOC 50 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
NAVGEME FNMOC 50 km 2x 20 06, 18
RAP NCEP 13 km 24x 1 Every hour
RAP-EXT NCEP 13 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
RDPS CMC Canada 10 km 4x 1 04, 10, 16, 22
REPS CMC Canada 15 km 2x 20 07, 19
RTMA NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 every hour
QMD MDL 2.5 km 4x 1 01, 07, 13, 19
SREF NCEP 16 km 4x 24 01, 07, 13, 19
REWPS * CMC Canada 2.5 km 2x 20 05, 17
GEPS Waves CMC Canada 25 km 2x 20 07, 19
NAVGEMD Waves FNMOC 100 km 2x 1 07, 19
NAVGEME Waves FNMOC 50 km 2x 20 07, 19
GFS WW3D Waves NCEP 25 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GEFS WW3E Waves NCEP 25 km 4x 30 01, 07, 13, 19
WW3D HIRES Waves NCEP 9-17 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GLWU Waves NCEP 2.5 km 4x 1 02, 08, 14, 20

Obviously it gives too much weight to less-accurate models that were outliers and not enough weight to the more accurate ones whose consensus was far snowier.

It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I didn’t think anybody would find my twitter….😂😂😂

I had no idea that was you 😂

  • Excited 1
  • lol 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Similar to what we had up here yesterday morning. Took my sister 40 minutes to go from one end of Stanwood to the other yesterday morning. Kitsap’s turn this morning! 

8420E826-40C5-4511-A0C3-406C70761E1D.jpeg

Yea, we didn't get much snow over here, but the roads are bad and all the schools are closed. Lots of spinouts and slippery accidents this AM. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well congrats to the Portland area! Looks like most of the posters on here down there got at least 6 inches. This is going to be remembered for a long time in the Portland area.

  • Like 2

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In case anyone missed it last night, MS called out the NWS Seattle and Portland in his livestream. He just couldn’t understand why there were no WWA’s issued up in my area until the event was basically done. I found that very confusing as well. Roads were horrible. 
 

He also mentioned that he would never miss reading an AFD except for one in a while in the summer, he hasn't bothered lately however…And I just realized that I don’t anymore either. I used to never miss any of them, but since JAYA retired along with others it’s just not the same. 

Edited by MossMan
  • Like 8

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...