Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
The last 2 months have already established a warm CONUS pattern which, when manifesting during post-niño springs, almost always precedes warm summers nationally.
This bears striking resemblance to spring 2010. Only difference is cool anomalies aren’t as prevalent.
This would be a closer match to 2010 than 2012. Because 2012 wasn’t coming off a strong niño, where-as there are still niño-like elements to the current base state (albeit attenuating).
Of course there will be subseasonal scale differences as well. Unwise to project from any analog pool alone.
You don’t have a point. The context was *leaving town* on a day with desirable weather, to a destination with more desirable weather. Not *returning home* to desirable weather.
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