Jump to content

PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

This is starting to feel more and more like the lead-up to February 2019 did in Seattle.

Maybe it will also hit 80 degrees here in late March like it did in 2019.   I can dream.  😀

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1
  • Sun 2
  • Sick 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

NBM MODEL INPUTS

 
NBM MODEL INPUTS: These are the model inputs and sources for the NBM v4.1. Model names with an * are new to NBM v4.1
Model Name Agency Resolution Cycles/Day Members Cycles Updated
ACCESS-G BoM Australia 12 km 2x 1 07, 19
ACCESS-GE * BoM Australia 35 km 4x 18 02, 08, 14, 20
EC MOSD ECMWF N/A (Stations only) 2x 1 08, 20
EC MOSE ECMWF N/A (Stations only) 2x 50 09, 21
ECMWFD ECMWF 25 km 2x 1 08, 20
ECMWFE ECMWF 50 km 2x 50 09, 21
GDPS CMC Canada 25 km 2x 1 05, 17
GEPS CMC Canada 50 km 2x 20 07, 19
GEFS NCEP 25 km 4x 30 01, 07, 13, 19
GFS NCEP 13 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GFS MOS STN NCEP N/A (Stations only) 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
GLMP NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 Every hour
GMOS NCEP 2.5 km 2x 1 07, 19
HiResW ARW NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HiResW ARW MEM2 NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HiResW FV3 NCEP 3 km 2x 1 04, 16
HMON NCEP 1.5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
HREF NCEP 5 km 2x 8 07, 19
HRRR NCEP 3 km 24x 1 Every hour
HRRR-EXT NCEP 3 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
HWRF NCEP 1.5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
LAMPMOS NCEP N/A (Stations only) 24x 1 Every hour
MELD NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 Every hour
MMEBC NCEP/WPC 5 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
NAM NCEP 12 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAMMOS NCEP N/A (Stations only) 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAMNest NCEP 3 km 4x 1 03, 09, 15, 21
NAVGEMD FNMOC 50 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
NAVGEME FNMOC 50 km 2x 20 06, 18
RAP NCEP 13 km 24x 1 Every hour
RAP-EXT NCEP 13 km 4x 1 00, 06, 12, 18
RDPS CMC Canada 10 km 4x 1 04, 10, 16, 22
REPS CMC Canada 15 km 2x 20 07, 19
RTMA NCEP 2.5 km 24x 1 every hour
QMD MDL 2.5 km 4x 1 01, 07, 13, 19
SREF NCEP 16 km 4x 24 01, 07, 13, 19
REWPS * CMC Canada 2.5 km 2x 20 05, 17
GEPS Waves CMC Canada 25 km 2x 20 07, 19
NAVGEMD Waves FNMOC 100 km 2x 1 07, 19
NAVGEME Waves FNMOC 50 km 2x 20 07, 19
GFS WW3D Waves NCEP 25 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GEFS WW3E Waves NCEP 25 km 4x 30 01, 07, 13, 19
WW3D HIRES Waves NCEP 9-17 km 4x 1 05, 11, 17, 23
GLWU Waves NCEP 2.5 km 4x 1 02, 08, 14, 20

Sounds like there's something wonky with their weighting is my guess. It's probably giving too much weight to some extremely inaccurate models and not enough to the better ones. I pay attention to the NBM quite a bit actually, and anecdotally I've noticed that it really doesn't seem very accurate at all for anything even remotely outside of climo.

It seems like its output is almost always going to produce a result that is overly biased toward climo. This often works out for it, because, well, that's how climo works. But when you get unusual situations like this, look what happens. It's totally blind to the possibility.

Another thing I've noticed is that NBM has an extremely high resolution, even well beyond most mesoscale models, so there's got to be something getting lost in translation when generating the output it does.

I'm obviously far from an expert in anything to do with this, so I won't claim to know how to fix it. But obviously something is extremely broken with the thing.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe it will also hit 80 degrees here in late March like it did in 2019.   I can dream.  😀

Yeah I had both nearly 80 degrees and snow still on the ground! 😀

5C8755F3-F1CB-4E6C-8169-C88CC7EC7AC9.jpeg

0B912AB8-FE9B-4A52-B425-4A2CC7F57AD0.jpeg

  • Like 5
  • lol 4

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was 18F when I checked just before 11. Usually by this time it's usually safe to say we could have a subfreezing day since after this time there's no weird sun angel shenanigans on my weather station. Snow is still here. Very little melting even for the very light depth we have.

It was about 13 degrees when I took my son to school and due to the dry air I did not have to scrape. The kids get invited inside at school if the temp drops below 15F or wind-chill the same which is good. 

  • Like 2

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This has escalated very quickly… 

  • Like 7
  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Timmy said:

 

F5120EDB-B0DC-448B-935C-FAEF12F66583.jpeg

Is that the south jetty near Warrenton?

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The NWS in Portland is a joke. Plenty of us saw this coming well before they did and they went out with a WWA that expired at noon yesterday. I know its a hard job but come on? There was plenty of model data and real time analysis/observations that said the PDX metro was likely to experience a significant event. Funniest part is this guy was promoted to lead forecaster a month ago and starts his tenure with an epic bust.
 

 

What was that forecaster who made a mistake maybe about two months ago and felt absolutely crestfallen? What was that one about and does anyone remember the office?

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cold nights in Nov

Crazy 5 min convective graupel/snow in early Dec

Sub-freezing high in late Dec

Warmest Christmas day on record

Cool nights in the back half of Jan

Cold nights in Feb

3 separate dates that produced snowfall on the grass & elevated surfaces

1.75" of snow so far

 

Doesn't take much down here. I still give this winter an A

  • Like 7

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

PDX NWS needs to fire its coaching staff immediately.

  • Like 5

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Starting to look like I will be ready for a pattern change by the time it comes. 

 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seeing all the pictures and videos coming out of Portland is insane. Legit was the equivalent to a Midwest type of snowstorm especially with all the blowing snow and abandoned cars everywhere. I feel like there never usually are abandoned cars everywhere like that during PNW snowstorms is because normally even if an inch or 2 of snow is in the forecast people stay off the roads. But since the NWS didn’t say anything until it was too late it caused that to happen.

  • Like 8

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also really glad that Salem to PDX finally got off the schneid.

Who is the "most due" at this point?

  • Like 3

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BLI snowman said:

 

The whole region. For a dud.

Probly multiple sadly. Once those duds are done then...I guess inland SW Oregon?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/19/2023 at 6:10 PM, TT-SEA said:

@Hawksfan2008 should be happy... gets to enjoy Maui without missing any snow in North Bend. 

You were right about not missing home here… this place is incredible! That said, feels like the cherry on top that I get to fly home on Saturday and head right into multiple snow storms for the next week. Doesn’t make the end of vacation so sad. Congrats to all that have some snow already! Looking forward to being more active when I get back. Cheers!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Seeing all the pictures and videos coming out of Portland is insane. Legit was the equivalent to a Midwest type of snowstorm especially with all the blowing snow and abandoned cars everywhere. I feel like there never usually are abandoned cars everywhere like that during PNW snowstorms is because normally even if an inch or 2 of snow is in the forecast people stay off the roads. But since the NWS didn’t say anything until it was too late it caused that to happen.

Happened up in the puget sound in December 1990 where everyone abandoned their vehicles on I-5 and were walking in mass groups down the road, was quite the sight! Also the flash freeze of November 2010 I believe it was…People were in their cars all night on I-5 and 405. 

  • scream 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wonder what it’s doing on Mt. Davidson in SF. That's around 900' IIRC.

@AlTahoewhere in the Oakland Hills was this? Or is it from WW?

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've never experienced it, was that blowing snow and drifting in PDX? I don't know what that is.

  • Weenie 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Happened up in the puget sound in December 1990 where everyone abandoned their vehicles on I-5 and were walking in mass groups down the road, was quite the sight! Also the flash freeze of November 2010 I believe it was…People were in their cars all night on I-5 and 405. 

Happened up this way just last November!

  • Excited 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Breezy!

First time in our 13 years here that we’ve had legit blowing/drifting. 

Definitely one of the windiest episodes I can remember here while we’ve had fresh snow cover on the ground.  Lots of blowing snow off the roof tops and trees.  Huge clouds of snow blowing off the buildings in town this morning.  Looks wintery 💨 ❄️ 

  • Like 3
  • Windy 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Medford? Idk if they got any yesterday 

According to NWS we got 0.6 yesterday and probably only where the airport is because where I'm at was just some trace not even measurable lol

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...