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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Frosty here. Going on hour 8 of my second power outage. Last night 7-10, then again at 4am. Hoping not like previous storms where it was out a week. Generator all nice and warm, and unused, buried in an outbuilding.

20230223_065104.jpg

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3 minutes ago, MWG said:

According to NWS we got 0.6 yesterday and probably only where the airport is because where I'm at was just some trace not even measurable lol

Yeah, you've gotta be the most due. That's a huge bummer.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Also really glad that Salem to PDX finally got off the schneid.

Who is the "most due" at this point?

I still think you're due as is Medford/Ashland.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I expect that the 31 degree midnight temp will hold as PDX's high for the day today. Pretty incredible for February 23.

Record min/max is 39 I believe. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

I wonder how cold they'll get tomorrow morning

I'm wondering how deep into the teens we can get tonight. 11" of fresh snow cover, and hopefully clearing skies. NWS says 16, but I bet we can do better. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I think my biggest wish was that I had snow on Halloween instead of the day after. Because that's legendary status that would almost never happen here. 1 inch fell the next day in a surprise. So far my season totals are half of what I had last year but I had a great April. I don't mind though since we did have enough really to play in it for a day or two in Dec. 

I also wish I had started recording snow for 2020-2021 because we had some amazing events in my corner that Spokane missed out on (I think western WA did okay for some of those too).

But my favorite fact for my location is that we had snow before the first freeze. So still awesome though maybe more common on the west side. For my location I'd give this winter a C or C plus. Nothing special but compared to the outlier two years it's normal to have regression. We also do have ten inches total more than MWG so there's no room to complain here.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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57 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

I’m surprised there aren’t more people calling them out for this..

4C3BCFD2-087C-41D7-B90E-47C317A62AA3.thumb.jpeg.e3df89b082aaad85ea5bb63d8ae9def4.jpeg

 

I honestly think that it's expected out of them at this point. 

The see/saw effect with them is very real, also. You can practically guarantee that they will overcompensate by deciding to go all-in on the next borderline setup that comes about and will get burned once again in the opposite direction. Never fail to fail....

Edited by BLI snowman
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Looked at the 10:1 ratios forecast for my location over the next 10 days:

GEM: 36"

EURO: 26"

GFS: 27" 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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FWIW 

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_1.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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33 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

PDX NWS needs to fire its coaching staff immediately.

One consequnce of this event is that the model-riding is gonna get even more manic around here. At least in the Portland area, it’s been easy to default to a “trust the mets” attitude. That was my bias for sure. Because they’ve been right to be a wet blanket on our snow chances for years now. But this one was brutal; all of the best models were showing a significant event 24 hours out and they still refused to bite. It’s a good reminder that they’ll miss the outliers, and those are typically our best storms.

Now who has the latest hour 354 snow map?

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SLE back into the mid-30s now. No sub-freezing high down here, but still should put up a good departure. Looks like its 26 at home, our midnight high of 28 might stand. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I think my biggest wish was that I had snow on Halloween instead of the day after. Because that's legendary status that would almost never happen here. 1 inch fell the next day in a surprise. So far my season totals are half of what I had last year but I had a great April. I don't mind though since we did have enough really to play in it for a day or two in Dec. 

I also wish I had started recording snow for 2020-2021 because we had some amazing events in my corner that Spokane missed out on (I think western WA did okay for some of those too).

But my favorite fact for my location is that we had snow before the first freeze. So still awesome though maybe more common on the west side. For my location I'd give this winter a C or C plus. Nothing special but compared to the outlier two years it's normal to have regression. We also do have ten inches total more than MWG so there's no room to complain here.

I had flurries the day before my first freeze last November. First freeze and first sticking snow were one and the same event.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Snow showers holding up well as they are moving N.

3C259A1D-A194-4708-BB7A-BF51291927C6.thumb.jpeg.0e330f358e3764cbd26d894379926cb1.jpeg

The sky looks convective. A bit of an airmass clash still going on too, some of these could get juicy as the afternoon goes along. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

At least Mark Nelsen acknowledged that there was real potential for a snowstorm. He even mentioned we could get a January 2017 surprise and clearly communicated that everyone should leave and get home early. The NWS just put out some random percentages in their AFDs

10% chance of getting 1". LMAO. It's probably an even worse bust than January 2017. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It's good to look at each model separately, and to use each model for the purpose for which it is designed. For example, blending in models like the HRRR (which is designed for predicting severe weather) and the GEFS (which captures long-term trends) to create short-range snowfall probabilities for the PNW doesn't really make sense.  

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3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Just saw this on reddit. Crazy!
 

 

Isn't that ridiculous. LOL

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

The "National Blend of Models" strikes me as a useful, but flawed, tool. Blending together models with different skill levels, and models that are optimized for different purposes is not a great way IMO to generate forecast probabilities. 

 

I noticed it has Tropical Models in it for Cyclone forecasting.  HWRF, HMON etc.  completely different dynamics than a winter storm

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42F and partly cloudy.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, Phishy Wx said:

I noticed it has Tropical Models in it for Cyclone forecasting.  HWRF, HMON etc.  completely different dynamics than a winter storm

The NBM is like making a smoothie out of everything in your fridge. It's all good food, but it makes no sense to combine it all together. 

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