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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Maybe because I didn't fly up here specifically to see snow, lol. I maybe chose to time my trip for right now because of the snow, but I had to come up here within the next couple weeks anyway for totally unrelated reasons. I apologize for not sharing the finer details of my personal life on a public forum.

You realize I just came from California where the mountains less than an hour away are currently getting 7-10 feet of snow, right? If I wanted to travel 100% for snow there was a much better option available to me.

Welcome to the forum.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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46 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

So EPS is snowier now? wtf?image.thumb.png.8fdbe95bb625d942080dc3483c419a23.pngimage.thumb.png.8ad0b6df7103d62bdc96ca107bd9b9c3.png

What on earth?? I know this is clown range, but... what are the odds this far out?  I got maybe 1/4" last night but after a few relative busts in the swamp I'd love a solid few inches on winter's way out. But getting snow in early/mid march requires just about everything to go perfectly, and I feel like we've seen constant "snow 2 weeks from now" models this winter. 

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4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I know Moss had snow but did any places in Thurston or Pierce co get some good snow. I'm having a debate with a coworker who says it's quiet because of school district closures.

Puyallup schools were 2 hours late. They announced it an hour after snow had already stopped last night. I assume they were worried about ice, because we got a dusting that barely stuck to roads at all.

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2 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

What on earth?? I know this is clown range, but... what are the odds this far out?  I got maybe 1/4" last night but after a few relative busts in the swamp I'd love a solid few inches on winter's way out. But getting snow in early/mid march requires just about everything to go perfectly, and I feel like we've seen constant "snow 2 weeks from now" models this winter. 

This is very different than snow forecasted two weeks from now.

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8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can’t understand why anyone who flew up here on a whim specifically to see snow would spend all day in the least snowy part of town when there are widespread 8-10” totals just several miles away.

You know what? **, actually. I flew up here because my mother is dying and she needs my help around the house right now. I am not going to leave my mom at home while I go drive to the other side of town to sit in a snowy Fred Meyer parking lot, what the ****.

I wanted to see some decent snow here because it would be a small silver lining during what is otherwise a very painful and difficult time for me and my family. My mom really likes snow too and I was hoping that this storm would be something that I could look back on fondly as one of the last happy memories I had with my mother. I am so very sorry that my disappointment is upsetting to you.

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43F so we should see a pretty solid negative temp departure given the normal high is 53F.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

You know what? **, actually. I flew up here because my mother is dying and she needs my help around the house right now. I am not going to leave my mom at home while I go drive to the other side of town to sit in a snowy Fred Meyer parking lot, what the ****.

I wanted to see some decent snow here because it would be a small silver lining during what is otherwise a very painful and difficult time for me and my family. My mom really likes snow too and I was hoping that this storm would be something that I could look back on fondly as one of the last happy memories I had with my mother. I am so very sorry that my disappointment is upsetting to you.

My condolences. I dealt with the death of my own mother last summer.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

You know what? **, actually. I flew up here because my mother is dying and she needs my help around the house right now. I am not going to leave my mom at home while I go drive to the other side of town to sit in a snowy Fred Meyer parking lot, what the ****.

I wanted to see some decent snow here because it would be a small silver lining during what is otherwise a very painful and difficult time for me and my family. My mom really likes snow too and I was hoping that this storm would be something that I could look back on fondly as one of the last happy memories I had with my mother. I am so very sorry that my disappointment is upsetting to you.

Seriously, lay into him. I'm not kidding. He's kicking a bunch of people in the south valley while they're down too. I don't get it.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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5 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

Puyallup schools were 2 hours late. They announced it an hour after snow had already stopped last night. I assume they were worried about ice, because we got a dusting that barely stuck to roads at all.

I thought schools were closed for "President's Week"? Which is why traffic has been so much better the last few days.

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

There was a pretty prominent hole from Hazel Dell to Ridgefield once we got cold enough for accumulations in the late afternoon. Hours of really light stuff with a lot more precip on both sides of it. Sounds like Scappoose was reporting 6" and Battle Ground down to Orchards also had 5-6".

Yeah, we did really well with the morning stuff, then caught the first part of the afternoon stuff but dynamics focused south after sunset. We got maybe an inch after that.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

absolutely no chance for those small cells to the south, completely torn apart as they enter the metro

Some fairly robust easterlies out there, didn't notice in all the excitement over the storm. PDX was reading S33G45 a bit ago.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Same thought crossed my mind. Don’t even want to bother going down that rabbit hole though. It’s a beautiful day. 

What an absolutely bizarre thing to doubt, but okay you do you. Congrats on your snow. Maybe you can rub it in more next to some of the Eugene posters after you drive me out of here.

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5 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Par for the course for him. 

And Fred and co still put up with it. Now he insults people mourning loved ones. I don't get it.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

What an absolutely bizarre thing to doubt, but okay you do you. Congrats on your snow. Maybe you can rub it in more next to some of the Eugene posters after you drive me out of here.

I would like nothing more to see Eugene get a big event. And my condolences about your mother. You have to understand from the posts yesterday it seemed like you based your decision to come up here mostly on the snowstorm. I didn’t have any other details of your trip, so you can understand why I would be confused that you didn’t travel to a snowier part of town. Now that I have the details it makes sense. Apologies if I upset you. Hope the rest of your trip goes well.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, Margaritaville said:

Olympia School District is closed today. Not sure about any others in Thurston.

Ty and Chris! My work centers around those two counties and Spokane so that's really helpful.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Just now, MillCreekMike said:

Ahh the toxic side of this place is showing

Cruelty is a difficult trait for some to overcome.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 hour ago, joelgombiner said:

The "National Blend of Models" strikes me as a useful, but flawed, tool. Blending together models with different skill levels, and models that are optimized for different purposes is not a great way IMO to generate forecast probabilities. 

 

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. One way that could be better is if the weighting of the models changed as a function of how far out the forecast was. Perhaps the mesoscale models are great for what happens over the next few hours, while the global models are not weighted as strongly. For one to four days out, the global models are weighted above ensemble and mesoscale models. After five days, the ensembles should probably get the most weight. 

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In other news it is snowing moderately again here in Salem. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

Puyallup schools were 2 hours late. They announced it an hour after snow had already stopped last night. I assume they were worried about ice, because we got a dusting that barely stuck to roads at all.

Much appreciated. How much did you get? Icy roads in your area this am?

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Still should post a solid negative temp departure. A lot nicer than racking up the NFL players in the summer.9E6A0201-052E-419E-8C02-3A4C1832DD9B.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

This sums up how it is out here. It's a ground blizzard with East wind gusts 40-50mph with 11 1/2 on the ground! AMAZING! Click on [720] for HD quality. I do hate that the wind blew most of the snow off the trees though. 12z Euro/EPS keeps the threat of lowland snow very real several times over the next 10 days! WOW! Moses Lake 19 F at 1 PM under clear skies and bright sunshine. That's incredible for late Jebruary. It's a Jebruary to remember!

MVI_3376.MOV 29.7 MB · 2 downloads  

 

 

61n7vHZ8PyL._AC_SL1000_.jpg

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4 minutes ago, RCola said:

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. One way that could be better is if the weighting of the models changed as a function of how far out the forecast was. Perhaps the mesoscale models are great for what happens over the next few hours, while the global models are not weighted as strongly. For one to four days out, the global models are weighted above ensemble and mesoscale models. After five days, the ensembles should probably get the most weight. 

It may already work that way to some degree. They state that  it's "bias-corrected" but I don't see an explanation of how that works or what it means. image.thumb.png.060378daff4ab23d21a5363847dbc260.png

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5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Dewey needs to post puppy photos asap 

Here is one of dogs refusing to come back in this morning! 

F89BE2C7-0AE5-4878-819F-ED07EEFD26C8.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, DRG said:

Woke up to about 5" in Gasquet this morning.  Warmed up down here a fair amount this morning, lots of melting.  Then winds kicked up and now it's trying to stick again (vid).

House in PDX had 10"+ this morning according to neighbors (pic).

Screenshot_20230223-091534.png

It's a Winter wonderland. What river/creek is that? Looks like an amazing place to live. I'd be busy fishing.

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2 minutes ago, RCola said:

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. One way that could be better is if the weighting of the models changed as a function of how far out the forecast was. Perhaps the mesoscale models are great for what happens over the next few hours, while the global models are not weighted as strongly. For one to four days out, the global models are weighted above ensemble and mesoscale models. After five days, the ensembles should probably get the most weight. 

I also think the nature of the event matters.

I can imagine the NBM being a more useful tool with a stratiform precip event with a well defined front and temperature overlay.

But in a more dynamic situation like a deformation zone with very nebulous boundaries and rapid changes like yesterday there's no way that looking at any model blend is the most accurate way to go.

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8 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

It may already work that way to some degree. They state that  it's "bias-corrected" but I don't see an explanation of how that works or what it means. image.thumb.png.060378daff4ab23d21a5363847dbc260.png

As a mathematician who has visited the GFDL before, I'd be skeptical of that. Some of their techniques leave a lot to be desired. Then again, some of their techniques are incredible. It's a real mixed bag.

 

A lot of the stunted progress is unfortunately due to government budget cuts.

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