Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
The fact these urbanizing UHI stations are relied on so heavily in surface climate datasets is a joke.
It’s obvious sfc datasets are corrupted because the vast majority of “observed” warming has occurred at night, even in areas where cloud cover has declined. Also, satellites are in near perfect alignment w/ sfc datasets over the oceans, but on land sfc datasets are warming up to 2X faster than satellite data in some areas.
Yes, GHG-induced warming will also skew slightly higher at night (for a multitude of reasons that require lots of jargon to explain), however it’s a minuscule difference when you actually calculate it, even if you are extra generous w/ how you construct the “fractal” of diurnal/nocturnal fluxes.
FWIW, one of the leading Apr-Jun EOFs during p8-1-2 transitions in waning niños is troughing at the coasts and a ridge in the middle of the country. There are other possible outcomes (subseasonal responses are always state dependent), but I could definitely see that pattern verifying.
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