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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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9 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

It may already work that way to some degree. They state that  it's "bias-corrected" but I don't see an explanation of how that works or what it means. image.thumb.png.060378daff4ab23d21a5363847dbc260.png

I'm sure it's bias corrected, but clearly their weighting for it is FUBAR. My biggest question is how it is translating so many low resolution outputs into such a high resolution forecast. If this event is any indication, it almost seems like it overcompensated when correcting for the effects of terrain bleed that cause the models to assume the entire area is at a higher elevation than it really is. Total guess here, but my gut feeling is that part of the issue has to do with this. Like how the 384hr GFS assumes all of the PNW is at 2,500ft in elevation, it almost seems like the NBM acts like all the valleys are at 0ft.

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Just noticed that the ECMWF shows almost every night below freezing in Seattle.   Ironically... the only day that doesn't touch freezing is Sunday which is the day of the region wide snow event.  😀

ecmwf-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-7153600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

This sums up how it is out here. It's a ground blizzard with East wind gusts 40-50mph with 11 1/2" on the ground! AMAZING! I do hate that the wind blew most of the snow off the trees though. 12z Euro/EPS keeps the threat of lowland snow very real several times over the next 10 days! WOW! Moses Lake 19 F at 1 PM under clear skies and bright sunshine. That's incredible for late Jebruary. It's a Jebruary to remember!

MVI_3376.MOV 29.7 MB · 4 downloads

 

I just drove through that area and it was not that bad at all. Wow of all people i can't believe you would make up a story like this. 2 inches of slush at best there. WOW! 😉

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Just noticed that the ECMWF shows almost every night below freezing in Seattle.   Ironically... the only day that doesn't touch freezing is Sunday which is the day of the region wide snow event.  😀

ecmwf-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-7153600.png

Wow.. loving the 42/20 spread!

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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It's a Winter wonderland. What river/creek is that? Looks like an amazing place to live. I'd be busy fishing.

It's the middle fork of the Smith River.  Been coming here for decades (shared family place) and this is the first time I've been here when it's snowed more than once.  Just unreal beauty everywhere

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16 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Dewey needs to post puppy photos asap 

The Arctic Hounds are all sleeping in the rumpus room and unavailable for photos at this time. They’re exhausted after doing the dirty work to put together this late season BLAST.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I'm sure it's bias corrected, but clearly their weighting for it is FUBAR. My biggest question is how it is translating so many low resolution outputs into such a high resolution forecast. If this event is any indication, it almost seems like it overcompensated when correcting for the effects of terrain bleed that cause the models to assume the entire area is at a higher elevation than it really is. Total guess here, but my gut feeling is that part of the issue has to do with this. Like how the 384hr GFS assumes all of the PNW is at 2,500ft in elevation, it almost seems like the NBM acts like all the valleys are at 0ft.

Thank you for posting a bunch so far. It's great when events like this bring in new folks or people who don't post super often.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Living vicariously through y’all. Nothing quite like bust in the snowy direction. :lol: Looking forward to more pics and videos.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe it will also hit 80 degrees here in late March like it did in 2019.   I can dream.  😀

It hit 81°F here today. Warmer than North Bend’s average high in the meat of summer. 😭

Wayyy too early for this s**t. I’m not remotely ready.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It hit 81°F here today. Warmer than North Bend’s average high in the meat of summer. 😭

Wayyy too early for this s**t. I’m not remotely ready.

Glad to see you are still thinking of me!   Even though North Bend and Seattle have basically the same average highs in the summer.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, RCola said:

Snow or no snow this round, here's something that may or may not put a smile on your face: DCA set a new daily max temperature of 81F today: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDCA.html . My condolences, Phil.

Trash weather. I’m not remotely acclimated and was sweating like a pig walking around campus the sun (as were many others, lol).

Would be a beautiful day by summer standards, but this simply does not belong in February. Period.

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

PDX now has more snow on the season than Boston.

May not last long but we'll take the W anyways....

Judah in a shambles.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Glad to see you are still thinking of me!   Even though North Bend and Seattle have basically the same average highs in the summer.  😀

I replied to your post about 80 degree weather, hence the NB reference. Don’t flatter yourself. 😆 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

PDX now has more snow on the season than Boston.

May not last long but we'll take the W anyways....

Has that ever happened before? Would be one hell of a feat. 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Trash weather. I’m not remotely acclimated and was sweating like a pig walking around campus the sun (as were many others, lol).

Would be a beautiful day by summer standards, but this simply does not belong in February. Period.

NWS has a 30% chance of snow showers early on Saturday, so I guess that's something small to look forward to. Certainly a subfreezing low, which has become a big deal over that way.

Sometimes I miss the crazy temp swings in the east, but that SE ridge in Feb I don't miss.

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3 minutes ago, RCola said:

NWS has a 30% chance of snow showers early on Saturday, so I guess that's something small to look forward to it. Certainly a subfreezing low, which has become a big deal over that way.

Sometimes I miss the crazy temp swings in the east, but that SE ridge in Feb I don't miss.

My area radiates well, so have had plenty of subfreezing lows locally. But DC proper is often 10+ degrees warmer at night vs this location. 😕 The difference never used to be that much.

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Living vicariously through y’all. Nothing quite like bust in the snowy direction. :lol: Looking forward to more pics and videos.

Your welcome to move; we would gladly take you. 🙂

I would recommend a place in the foothills. They get more snow, even with the marginal events. There also more prone to wind events. Great time for the fall/winter. 

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1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

Managed to make it up to 30.5 so far.  Roads here in BG are mainly dry, even side roads.  Driving into Vancouver they get snowier and ice covered.  This morning's drive in was fun!

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Hey can I come take that 'yota for a spin? 😁

Even in the snow I don't care. 

195572.png?1673757432

 

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