Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
This is probably going to be a memorable outbreak for some. Everything is coming together for some big days. SPC just updated their day 3 outlook to add an enhanced. I suspect we get a moderate or two during this stretch.
My experience says May-September is the intolerable season, and obviously June is the worst since its just sunny and hot. If you go up to Flag or some of the other communities it makes a big difference.
A more in-depth analysis of the event from Rollenbeck at al, 2022:
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/4/824
Note the murky overlap between EOF(s) defining niña-modoki and niño-costero. The truth is ENSO has multiple spectra, and the niño 3.4/ONI metric is out of date (and should be done away with entirely).
The 2023/24 niño emerged from a niño-costero event. First time we’ve seen that type of evolution before the 1976 Pacific Climate Shift.
This is fascinating stuff when you really dig into it.
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