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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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56 minutes ago, mtep said:

Down to 25 IMBY. Today was the kind of cold that makes you want to punch your steering wheel, but I still had a good time. The sunny skies/higher sun angles juxtaposed with the extreme wind and cold was pretty cool to see. 

Got down to 20 for me last night and got up to 28 during the day.  I am on the southern/eastern edge of the outflow zone so we usually don't get the full brunt of the winds, but we are getting it today. 

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1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

With more on the way, I’m sure even Monday is questionable. 😃

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8 minutes ago, Requiem said:

  Now that the event is finally over, my thoughts. Just an absolutely top tier event-- widespread snow, strong winds, and definitely some of the heaviest accumulation since January 2017. In fact, I think in many ways this is comparable to that event and it's definitely not just a "lite" version. Have to mention the almost ground blizzard-like conditions today as strong easterlies whipped up the snow under some of the prettiest blue skies I've seen in years. I genuinely think a storm like this was worth the wait. From the perspective of our little weather nerd subculture it was incredible to have a storm where near-term models were constantly self-correcting in real time-- obviously a terrible thing for most of the general public as we saw what an unprepared and nearly completely unforecast snowstorm did to the city last night. A video from my neck of the woods below.

 

 

How much did you get in the end? The ground blizzard part of this storm was really fun too, I don't remember that in 2017

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8 minutes ago, Requiem said:

  Now that the event is finally over, my thoughts. Just an absolutely top tier event-- widespread snow, strong winds, and definitely some of the heaviest accumulation since January 2017. In fact, I think in many ways this is comparable to that event and it's definitely not just a "lite" version. Have to mention the almost ground blizzard-like conditions today as strong easterlies whipped up the snow under some of the prettiest blue skies I've seen in years. I genuinely think a storm like this was worth the wait. From the perspective of our little weather nerd subculture it was incredible to have a storm where near-term models were constantly self-correcting in real time-- obviously a terrible thing for most of the general public as we saw what an unprepared and nearly completely unforecast snowstorm did to the city last night. A video from my neck of the woods below.

 

 

What park is that? Looks like an awesome view.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

NWS did terrible. No winter weather advisory, until the snow started, then a winter storm warning way after the snowstorm has began east metro. Many people there got stuck during the day. Then the winter storm warning ended before the heaviest snow arrived west metro, which basically brought blizzard conditions. There were definitely 2"+ hour rates in those bands.

Thanks for your answer! This would make a lot of sense and frankly inexcusable. What about media coverage? Did they underplayed this as well? 
 

I swear, there are more useful stuff on here than from the NWS or media. Feel for those that were not prepared for this.

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Looking for some advice from you kind folks. We're pretty new to the area and want to make the drive out to Leavenworth this weekend. Do you guys think I-90 will be passable with a Subaru Outback with snow tires? Don't wanna take any serious risks, but also don't wanna cancel for nothing. We were thinking of leaving around noon as the snow tapers off, but it looks like at least a foot will have fallen over the pass overnight.

 

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4 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hoping the cold goes well into April and May!

Why stop the fun there? Let's spend most of July and August cloudy and below 65F! 😁

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Thanks for your answer! This would make a lot of sense and frankly inexcusable. What about media coverage? Did they underplayed this as well? 
 

I swear, there are more useful stuff on here than from the NWS or media. Feel for those that were not prepared for this.

KPTV and Mark Nelsen went with T-3" the day before which was better than the NWS forecasting nothing but still way off. However the morning of the event Mark clearly communicated that the potential for a surprise snowstorm was definitely there and that people should head home as early as they can.

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8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What park is that? Looks like an awesome view.

Council Crest! Some of the best views in Portland, imo.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Mid NAM run

721B33BF-9142-4691-A5DA-A32A93816B52.png

The model is dead to me after yesterday 😂

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

Looking for some advice from you kind folks. We're pretty new to the area and want to make the drive out to Leavenworth this weekend. Do you guys think I-90 will be passable with a Subaru Outback with snow tires? Don't wanna take any serious risks, but also don't wanna cancel for nothing. We were thinking of leaving around noon as the snow tapers off, but it looks like at least a foot will have fallen over the pass overnight.

 

Saturday looks fine but, I won't be surprised if they will close the pass on Sunday for at least a few hours. It often closes with around a foot of snow due to accidents, so it really depends on how people drive and whether they have the right vehicles. Chains might be required on Sunday. 

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2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

KPTV and Mark Nelsen went with T-3" the day before which was better than the NWS forecasting nothing but still way off. However the morning of the event Mark clearly communicated that the potential for a surprise snowstorm was definitely there and that people should head home as early as they can.

Here's a good timeline

https://www.kptv.com/2023/02/22/first-alert-live-blog-afternoonevening-forcasts-brings-worries/

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22 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Questions for PDX folks. 
 

Saw a bunch of road closures this morning in and out of the city. Did this somehow caught ODOT off guard? Or were the rates too much for them to handle? How did the NWS do? 
 

A week ago, the GFS showed a bunch of pepto across the region and I believe this verified to some extent with a large paint to brush that eventually got pinpointed down.
 

Hard to imagine that this wasn’t coming. 

NWS said trace-1”. Local mets too. Mark caved and said trace-4” right before. No winter storm warning issued until it was already underway. It caught ODOT/PBOT completely off guard. 

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4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

KPTV and Mark Nelsen went with T-3" the day before which was better than the NWS forecasting nothing but still way off. However the morning of the event Mark clearly communicated that the potential for a surprise snowstorm was definitely there and that people should head home as early as they can.

Was just going through the NWS PDX Twitter page. Just some horribly communicated stuff. Even when the advisory was put up they said T-1” below 500’. Then later attributed to the very high totals due to the front stalling out. 
 

The models showed this stall 36-48 hours prior. Incredible. 

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Just now, thisisacreativename said:

East winds are strong enough here to actually be heard inside.

Its been blowing 24 hours straight out here in Enumclaw, longest prolonged wind event I can remember out here for a long time.  Its just won't stop...  Lost some shingles off the roof last night and today.

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Was just going through the NWS PDX Twitter page. Just some horribly communicated stuff. Even when the advisory was put up they said T-1” below 500’. Then later attributed to the very high totals due to the front stalling out. 
 

The models showed this stall 36-48 hours prior. Incredible. 

The biggest traffic problems were probably people in the west metro trying to get back home in the central and east metro when snow started falling there and not in the west metro. Then it starting snowing in the hills and everyone got stuck on US-26, and then the blizzard conditions in the hills/west metro after midnight just made it worse.

 

Overall it looks like the Metro ended up with 4-12" on average.

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16 minutes ago, Doinko said:

KPTV and Mark Nelsen went with T-3" the day before which was better than the NWS forecasting nothing but still way off. However the morning of the event Mark clearly communicated that the potential for a surprise snowstorm was definitely there and that people should head home as early as they can.

That’s what separates Mark/Jeff from the rest. They are not afraid to give us last minute updates if models/obs rapidly change. I left work early yesterday largely due to Mark’s advice and I’m glad I did. Other Mets/NWS just stay quiet.

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12 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

Its been blowing 24 hours straight out here in Enumclaw, longest prolonged wind event I can remember out here for a long time.  Its just won't stop...  Lost some shingles off the roof last night and today.

Probably why it hasn't been that windy here... its usually either Enumclaw or North Bend with these east wind events but rarely both at the same time.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Weather.com says 3-5” IMBY Saturday night into Sunday morning. That would be really nice if it happened.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

NAM has temp at/below freezing for most of the Puget Sound/Portland area for this next round of precipitation 

1677499200-UjuZBMArlsQ.png

Is that an anafront that it’s showing there?

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:
 

prateptype_cat-imp.us_nw.png

Kind of looks like the same thing the NAM was showing except further south.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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GFS looks very snowy for Clark county, they should be able to resist the southerlies a bit better up there. I also expect the low lands in the coast range to do very well. Places like Banks, Buxton, Vernonia etc can trap cold air for a long time and are more shielded from the southerlies. 

This pattern is usually not at all good for most of the PDX metro for accumulating snow so I'm skeptical most of the city even sees an inch. Worth watching since the euro and gem have been showing a little snow for a while. 

snku_acc-imp.us_state_or.png

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