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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

GFS looks very snowy for Clark county, they should be able to resist the southerlies a bit better up there. I also expect the low lands in the coast range to do very well. Places like Banks, Buxton, Vernonia etc can trap cold air for a long time and are more shielded from the southerlies. 

This pattern is usually not at all good for most of the PDX metro for accumulating snow so I'm skeptical most of the city even sees an inch worth watching since the euro and gem have been showing a little snow for a while. 

snku_acc-imp.us_state_or.png

You guys aren’t due to get nailed with snow for another 6 years! 

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Might take a big volcanic eruption, but someday...

Just need to have persistent westerlies, troughing, and we need to not flash fry the hydrosphere. Things we've avoided every summer dating back to 2012.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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41 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Was just going through the NWS PDX Twitter page. Just some horribly communicated stuff. Even when the advisory was put up they said T-1” below 500’. Then later attributed to the very high totals due to the front stalling out. 
 

The models showed this stall 36-48 hours prior. Incredible. 

Unbelievable.  They need to own it.  So many of us on the forum were talking about how ridiculously conservative they were being with the forecast.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just need to have persistent westerlies, troughing, and we need to not flash fry the hydrosphere. Things we've avoided every summer dating back to 2012.

Say what?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Here we go again! WOW. PDX metro Widespread 6-10" highest totals east of I-205.

If you score that much again that would be INSANE. It is the GFS though. 

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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15 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Temps staying cold until April

Its only February 23rd... chances are pretty decent that the second half of March is at least close to normal and the cold is focused in the east.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GFS has a low tracking south of Seattle early next week.  Big potential there.

In the meantime the temp continues to fall here even with the wind.  Currently 25.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Some of the March 1951 or 1971 analogs being tossed around might not be too far off. Very chilly pattern coming up next week for this time of year. 

I think it's more like 1971.  Not as crazy as 1951, but still really good.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:
Guess what? Next Friday-Saturday, anafront situation. More heavy wet snow. 24hr snowfall totals 4 AM NEXT Friday to 4 AM Saturday PM. Wow.
sn10_024h-imp.us_nw.png

This dovetails nicely with the 12z ECMWF.  Pretty ridiculous amounts of snow being shown for various places in the lowlands.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

GFS has a low tracking south of Seattle early next week.  Big potential there.

In the meantime the temp continues to fall here even with the wind.  Currently 25.

If the gfs was on its own entirety I would discount it entirely, but it’s not. It’s definitely overdoing it with some of these ridiculous maps coming up. 
 Down to 27 here. Breezy east wind to the fact its still dropping at a good pace without calm conditions and no snowcover shows how legit this blast is. 

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This is better than heroin

FCFCD524-5FD3-4054-AF9C-D174BB56654B.png

I could easily see the Puget Sound area doing much better than what is shown here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

 

9.5 - 14.6 inches in Tillamook. What the hell. Ridiculous. 

Also 13 inches in St Helens but @BLI snowmanin Ridgefield had quite a bit less I think and the distance between those two isn't much. 

Yeah some of those totals seem a bit high, I measured 6.1" but Rockcreek shows 8.5" and Hillsboro show 10". Maybe people measured drifts or I didn't measure properly. My measurement was probably a bit low since all of the snow kind of blew away

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Pretty interesting to note this is the 4th consecutive GFS run to be better with the snowfall Saturday night in the Puget Sound area.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

GFS looks amazing for the Portland area!

Huge potential for the Seattle area with many of the events as well.  The 12z ECMWF had 13 inches for Seattle.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I think the GFS and ICON actually start the precip as rain here on Sunday morning. Which is why their totals are in the 3-4” range as opposed to the 6-8” the GEM and EURO, and now NAM have been spitting out. 
 

The Monday night period looks pretty solid up here, also some good cold low potential toward the middle of next week. The thing next weekend has potential too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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23 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This is better than heroin

FCFCD524-5FD3-4054-AF9C-D174BB56654B.png

Hope to see the purple and pepto's start to fill in the Sound 🤞🏽

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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If I recall March 1951 had some very warm weather late in the month. And the end of March 2019 was ridiculously warm, we were in the upper 70s with over a foot of snow still on the ground, I think Salem hit 84. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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