Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
The Niño 3.4 number doesn’t tell the whole story.
There was a healthy, quasi-stable niña low pass signal during the first part of that winter. The atmosphere was well coupled. There was no major intraseasonal event (MJO/SSW et al) that could have torpedoed the base state like that.
Not only did it abruptly fall apart without warning, but come February the atmosphere had coupled to the niño-costero signature as if it was a mature niño event. That’s not supposed to happen.
It’s cute you think it’s as simple as a cursory glance at the niño3.4 number, though. I used to think that way..when I was 11 years old.
54 currently, low of 22.
12z gfs was fine, pretty good for the Oregon cascades but only gave me a couple inches, and the Washington cascades and BC didn't get a lot of snow. Oregon doesn't need the snow, WA and BC does, 00z gfs was better for them.
What sounds better, seeing 12" of snow on vacation and then 4" at home a few days after you come back, or see 12" on vacation while 4" falls at home, and then when you come back it's back to boring weather?
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