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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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30 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yeah, it's a major soaker! Significant flooding is occurring.

ksox_20230225_1011_BR_0.4.png

What a blessing

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I can’t believe how much rain/snow California has had. It’s almost livable again. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I can’t believe how much rain/snow California has had. It’s almost livable again. 

Yeah, pretty major shift in the SPMM/NPMM dipole & Hadley/z-cells compared to recent years. Lends credence to the idea that La Niña is ending and the 4CH will be smaller in 2023.

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Wow. 😵

We’ll have to see if a trade burst follows as the MJO orbits back into the IO, but the fact there’s little if any indication of the low pass/niña standing wave is pretty incredible.

690CA68D-C135-423B-BCE5-1B4C9172FAD4.png

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8 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

When it said 10 inches for EPSL I figured that meant through Tuesday or something but nope it’s only through 10pm Sunday. Pretty bullish!

ECMWF only shows .3 to .4 in total precip for the EPSL through that time,    And shows temps in the 40s on Sunday afternoon.   They are going the other way now.   Not sure how there could be 10 inches of snow in the EPSL in the next 36 hours.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Reading the details of the WWA... I think the high end of the amounts might be up north in the foothills where the c-zone reaches the Cascades near Gold Bar on Sunday afternoon.    Its pretty silly to lump places like Maple Valley and Fall City in with that small area and just blanket say the entire EPSL could see 10 inches of snow.    It doesn't represent the reality of the situation.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF only shows .3 to .4 in total precip for the EPSL through that time,    And shows temps in the 40s on Sunday afternoon.   They are going the other way now.   Not sure how there could be 10 inches of snow in the EPSL in the next 36 hours.

Can you post the 06z euro through tomorrow mornings event ?

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Looking at the ECMWF... the circled area is why they put the high end at 10 inches.    Most of the EPSL has no chance of reaching 10 inches by Sunday evening.

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_kuchera-7477600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The unfortunate part of that WWA is that it will hurt their credibility the other way.    Only a very tiny percentage of the people in the EPSL live where 10 inches is even remotely possible.    But I guess that is better than what happened in Portland where no one was prepared because the NWS didn't say anything about the impending snowstorm.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The unfortunate part of that WWA is that it will hurt their credibility the other way.    Only a very tiny percentage of the people in the EPSL live where 10 inches is even remotely possible.    But I guess that is better than what happened in Portland where no one was prepared because the NWS didn't say anything about the impending snowstorm.

more bullish on the nam

EA514454-52FD-4C4C-A821-3A71B8E748E4.png

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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF only shows .3 to .4 in total precip for the EPSL through that time,    And shows temps in the 40s on Sunday afternoon.   They are going the other way now.   Not sure how there could be 10 inches of snow in the EPSL in the next 36 hours.

Yeah, it includes the town of Snohomish in that which is funny because we usually get pretty close to the same amount as they do over there

(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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The Monday night and Tuesday period looks more snowy on the 06Z ECMWF.   Another WWA will be needed then.    The NAM goes absolutely crazy in this period... but its the NAM and it really struggles with precip placement.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7628800 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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NWS SEA explanation for not putting up a WWA in the Seattle area is the chance for snow exceeding 1” is 50%…but the possibility of needing to put one up later tonight was something they admitted could happen in the AFD. I’d rather they don’t jinx this anyways. I think we see 1-1.5” tonight here. 

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59 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

When it said 10 inches for EPSL I figured that meant through Tuesday or something but nope it’s only through 10pm Sunday. Pretty bullish! Which is good to see.

And yet they only show up to 4 inches around the hood canal when every model clearly shows it will be one of the hardest hit areas in western Washington.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looking at the ECMWF... the circled area is why they put the high end at 10 inches.    Most of the EPSL has no chance of reaching 10 inches by Sunday evening.

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_kuchera-7477600.png

When I first saw the WWA I thought the NWS was being very bullish. After seeing this though it makes sense why they would show up to 10 inches. Looks like about 5” for MBY if this verifies.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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