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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Had a low of 22. Currently 25 with some high clouds rolling in. DP 21. 
 

Not much of a -PNA change yet…Sorry Tim! (And me if this was late March) 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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We’re down to -1.3F as of yesterday for February. Could finish around -2F this month. Should finally hit 40 today for the first time since Tuesday afternoon but a 42/21 temp spread is still a huge negative departure this time of year. 
 Looking like each of the next 4 days should each have measurable snowfall here. We’re already at 13 days with snowfall this year…amazing how many light snowfalls have occurred this winter. We never got more than 1.2” in a day…however the potential for a 2” event still exists coming up. 

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1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

I don't believe that convergence zone location for 1 second.

Over Seattle?    That is not a c-zone at that time.   That is just stratiform precip tonight and it must assume that is where temps will be more favorable.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Over Seattle?    That is not a c-zone at that time.   That is just stratiform precip tonight and it must assume that is where temps will be more favorable.

From what Mike Snyder was talking about on his briefing yesterday…that’s caused by southerlies off of the Olympic mountains and cascades. Mid level warming creates compression and dries things out a bit. Looks like that’s the reason southern pierce county and places in the NW interior are shadowed. 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF only shows .3 to .4 in total precip for the EPSL through that time,    And shows temps in the 40s on Sunday afternoon.   They are going the other way now.   Not sure how there could be 10 inches of snow in the EPSL in the next 36 hours.

You may want to look at the short range models instead of the longer range. Short range should have a better handle on how much moisture these systems will produce. 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Had a low of 22. Currently 25 with some high clouds rolling in. DP 21. 
 

Not much of a -PNA change yet…Sorry Tim! (And me if this was late March) 

E2AAAE84-81EF-4D29-832F-29ADCA1A9CF2.jpeg

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Still thinking there will be some sort of pattern change after next weekend... but anything warm seems unlikely.    It seems like the models want to move the focus of the troughing to the east eventually. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8579200 (1).png

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1 minute ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

You may want to look at the short range models instead of the longer range. Short range should have a better handle on how much moisture these systems will produce. 

ECMWF is by far the best model for surface details within 3 days.    It may go out to 10 days... but the absolutely best part of the ECMWF is its accuracy with the surface details in the short range.  

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Both the nam and fv3 lift this very nice snow band through the sound Tuesday morning. 

nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_54.png

fv3-hires_ref_frzn_nwus_50.png

I think Monday night and Tuesday is the main period to watch for some crazy things to happen.  

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

We will see if it comes around. Could really be the difference between a decent event or a more significant one. 

Yeah... the Tuesday situation is just hard for the models in general.   Similar to the situation in Portland earlier this week.   The potential for a major event somewhere is really high that day and even the ECMWF will bounce around with that scenario.  

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think Monday night and Tuesday is the main period to watch for some crazy things to happen.  

Just hoping the precip shield can extend farther east than what these are showing. Though it’s probably very hard for the models to nail exactly how far east it goes.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

March 1951… this map is Jim-approved!

I have always been fascinated with 1951.    After an insanely cold and snowy period in early March... it turned into a spectacular spring.   It rained on only 4 days out here in April with numerous days in the 70s.   And it was just a gorgeous summer.

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38 minutes ago, luterra said:

17 in Corvallis with no snow cover.  I thought snowy areas might be colder.

We hit 17 with 10” depth. We were 5 deg colder yesterday. 

 

32 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

12z Meso models all improved. Love to see it as 9/10 times it feels like it goes the other way right before the event. Here we go! image.thumb.png.5aa86d2917dcbaf148319da2a5c22589.pngimage.thumb.png.92656f3a5b70dcee22d5b1a206aee053.png

If you don’t hear from me this week, please send a plow. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have always been fascinated with 1951.    After an insanely cold and snowy period in early March... it turned into a spectacular spring.   It rained on only 4 days out here in April with numerous days in the 70s.   And it was just a gorgeous summer.

I looked at late a March 1951 and it actually wasn’t super warm up here, but given we peaked with almost 40” snow depth on the 10th, I have a feeling snow cover would have held temps down a bit up here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I looked at late a March 1951 and it actually wasn’t super warm up here, but given we peaked with almost 40” snow depth on the 10th, I have a feeling snow cover would have held temps down a bit up here. 

Yeah... the rest of March was not warm.    But it really dried out during the second half of the month.   The warmest temp at SEA was 63.     But April was just crazy.   It did not rain at all at SEA until the 18th and only rained on 4 days that month.     Many days at 65+ degrees but with chilly nights which kept the overall average cool.    Based on the temps it must have been a very sunny month.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Ended up with a very impressive low of 16 here. Clear and calm with several inches of snow still around. Great to see PDX finally hit teens as well after a couple swings and misses this winter.

Still just 19. Will be interested to see how chilly today stays with increasing clouds later on.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I love how everywhere around me has a WWA. Pretty rare to have Woodinville not included in EPSL advisories.

 

Also, I've been telling my wife about this weekend all week and she only now believes bc her app shows snow starting tonight at 8 lol. Got to love it. 

My app shows rain starting at about 7pm.

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5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is a text book winter storm track for the Puget Sound.  Could be a major event. 

a79b5a2e-fb25-4985-bca8-08ff85bcc069.gif

Yep... that will be a very interesting day.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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