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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Just now, TT-SEA said:

That was the map through Monday afternoon... do you want just tonight?

Yeah that would be great like through tomorrow afternoon.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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This runs says ICY roads Wednesday morning.  You would never know that SW wind happened.

1677682800-P0NOjVovAqo.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another run showing a roaring SW wind in Seattle on Tuesday afternoon with a really strong c-zone along the King/Snohomish line.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_mph-7625200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-7646800.png

This map shows what I've explained in the past for here having the Olympics block the warming sw wind. I'm just the the left of that 12 on map. Almost calm winds.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

This runs says ICY roads Wednesday morning.  You would never know that SW wind happened.

1677682800-P0NOjVovAqo.png

Yeah... that c-zone just falls apart in place and doesn't move south and then it clears up and the wind goes back to offshore.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tuesday morning through 10 a.m.... that morning looks very snowy for King County.    Even though it also shows a strong SW wind developing.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7607200.png

This looks really good for Clark County and @BLI snowman who I think will be out of town...

Looks decent for the northern and western parts of Washington County too.

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18 hours ago, Phil said:

I bet I know where we can find Tim weeks 3/4. 🌴 

5F51EF32-6C05-45CA-8E8B-B1C5573B88A1.jpeg

Nome, Alaska?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Hey are we just going to ignore the 12z GEFS?

gfs-ens_T850a_namer_53.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

36 here, pretty confident we atleast see 40 today despite high clouds. Won’t matter since the DP is 23 and evaporative cooling is going to be doing its thing tonight. 

Yep, if dew point stays that low the temp won't matter much. I've seen it snow hard at 40 degrees with a very low dewpoint. Temps will crash fast tonight. Might get back into the upper 20's in places under heavy bands. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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6 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

This looks really good for Clark County and @BLI snowman who I think will be out of town...

Looks decent for the northern and western parts of Washington County too.

Seems like the theme for the week. Outside of Monday with a bit more traditional set-up these marginal temp south wind events seem usually only good for conversational snow outside of Clark Co/Forest Grove/Gresham areas.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thursday system still looks a little too warm for lowland snow for the Seattle area.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7801600 (2).png

Mostly to warm here it looks like, which dovetails nicely with the NWS forecast for 2000' snow levels that day. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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There is post frontal snow to the north on Friday morning... this is exactly what the 00Z run showed as well.   Getting good consistency on the ECMWF overall with the Tuesday system being the wild card because it all comes to precise location of the surface low.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7888000 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-7801600.png

I'm almost speechless.  It would be cool if we could pinpoint an area for a total. Is that possible? Looking at colors I would say about 15 or 16 here which is ubsurd and approaching record territory for this time of year.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

There is post frontal snow to the north on Friday morning... this is exactly what the 00Z run showed as well.   Getting good consistency on the ECMWF overall with the Tuesday system being the wild card because it all comes to precise location of the surface low.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7888000 (2).png

SCORE.

 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Snow depth on Friday evening... not a great deal for my area.   My area is very exposed to the SW wind.   Places that are protected from the SW wind will do much better at preserving snow cover this week.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_depth-7888000 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep, if dew point stays that low the temp won't matter much. I've seen it snow hard at 40 degrees with a very low dewpoint. Temps will crash fast tonight. Might get back into the upper 20's in places under heavy bands. 

Lighter precip rates could hinder the evaporative cooling effect especially if things are getting mixed with any type of south wind. 

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Projecting SLE's temps the rest of the month they would end up with a -3.6 departure. They would also end up exactly 2F colder than this January. It would rank 17th coldest, which is pretty decent considering period of record is about 130 years. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm almost speechless.  It would be cool if we could pinpoint an area for a total. Is that possible? Looking at colors I would say about 15 or 16 here which is ubsurd and approaching record territory for this time of year.

Pivotal lets you do that tho who knows with how much actual accuracy.

 

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This is one of the most ridiculous Advisories I’ve ever seen. “Up to 10 inches” with no lower bound including cities like Covington? Just terrible communication coming out of the NWS right now.

C5477576-A25F-42CE-8703-973F89FC4839.jpeg

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snow depth on Friday evening... not a great deal for my area.   My area is very exposed to the SW wind.   Places that are protected from the SW wind will do much better at preserving snow cover this week.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_depth-7888000 (2).png

Hard to tell exactly, but looks like 12-15" here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Pivotal lets you do that tho who knows with how much actual accuracy.

 

The only downside is their Kuchera maps are not as generous as WB. LOL

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

This is one of the most ridiculous Advisories I’ve ever seen. “Up to 10 inches” with no lower bound including cities like Covington? Just terrible communication coming out of the NWS right now.

C5477576-A25F-42CE-8703-973F89FC4839.jpeg

I totally agree and the same thing earlier today.   It's ridiculous to pick one spot near Gold Bar that could get 10 inches and just blanket say the entire EPSL could get 10 inches.   Hurts their credibility when most of the EPSL has bare ground tomorrow afternoon. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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