Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
Tropical forcing was already El Niño like by spring 2023, despite the lack of an official declaration.
January 2023 was an intraseasonal event but was also a harbinger of things to come. Couldn’t know this in real time, but the ocean/atmosphere system had already made up its mind about where it was going at that point.
I wouldn't want to miss a sunny 70-degree weekend at home in April. Supply of those perfect days is limited... and always prefer to have stormy/rainy weather at home when we are gone.
There was no El Nino in spring 2023 and it was one of our coolest and cloudiest springs on record. It's extremely rare to have the jacarandas not bloom until late June or early July here, but that's what happened last year.
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