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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems as good a time as any to mention the ensemble improvement and the fact the operational GFS was a huge outlier in the long range. 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_51.png

gfs-ens_T850a_namer_51.png

That blocking is quickly moving poleward in the long range on GEFS... maybe we have zonal flow coming next?   That would make the most sense.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1677369600-1678233600-1678579200-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, MillCreekMike said:

Let’s not trend any further north than this. Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it did. 

The GFS was actually a bit south of earlier runs so it might be a compromise.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

That blocking is quickly moving poleward in the long range on GEFS... maybe we have zonal flow coming next?   That would make the most sense.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1677369600-1678233600-1678579200-10.gif

We shall see.  Maybe this will be a long overdue dry spring.  I know I'll skewered for saying that though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Let’s not trend any further north than this. Although it wouldn’t surprise me if it did. 

I have a feeling it will still wobble around and from my experience they almost never set up in the exact spot the models show them to be.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That blocking is quickly moving poleward in the long range on GEFS... maybe we have zonal flow coming next?   That would make the most sense.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1677369600-1678233600-1678579200-10.gif

Maybe that delivers an overrunning event. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What did Sunday pm-Monday 4p snow look like? Didn't see a map posted for that period. 

I post this with some hesitancy because a few certain people might jump all over me for posting any map with lighter snow.  I got in big trouble earlier today having some fun with your "so we are just to ignore" thing.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7542400 (3).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Cold Snap said:

I have a feeling it will still wobble around and from my experience they almost never set up in the exact spot the models show them to be.

Yeah, that just makes me think of the classic last minute north trend. Hopefully we avoid that.

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I post this with some hesitancy because a couple people might jump all over me for post a map with lighter snow.    I got in big trouble earlier today having some fun with your "so we are just to ignore" thing.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7542400 (3).png

I appreciate your posts Tim, and I only get cranky when you have snow and I don't :)

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2 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Hmmm not sure about that? Latest Euro spitting out an inch or two of slop - and that's assuming every wet flake mixed with rain sticks to the ground.

Not what I'm seeing.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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For the record the ECMWF shows it easily being cold enough for snow Monday night.  I think 30 is cold enough...right?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

For the record the ECMWF shows it easily being cold enough for snow Monday night.  I think 30 is cold enough...right?

I think Monday evening through Tuesday morning is going to be fine for snow in terms of temps.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I post this with some hesitancy because a few certain people might jump all over me for posting any map with lighter snow.  I got in big trouble earlier today having some fun with your "so we are just to ignore" thing.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7542400 (3).png

I don't think this period ever had much heavy snow except the runs which showed that deformation band. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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FWIW Wunderground keeps upping my totals for Monday and Tuesday. Showing me getting 2 inches both of those days now.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I would go with Kuchera for that period... it will be a wet snow.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7607200 (2).png

I'm a bit confused though, because the surface obs say it will be 30 in this area for much of that.  At any rate the next run will be different anyway.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow for Monday night and Tuesday (through 4 p.m.)... a little less for Seattle than the 12Z run but better to the north.    This is the same general theme as the GEM.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7628800 (2).png

Not bad!

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm a bit confused though, because the surface obs say it will be 30 in this area for much of that.  At any rate the next run will be different anyway.

If you look at the precip loop... its dry when it drops to 30.   Maybe it clears out briefly?  The main precip band comes through between 4-7 a.m. and it shows 34 at 4 a.m.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

If you look at the precip loop... its dry when it drops to 30.   Maybe it clears out briefly?  The main precip band comes through between 4-7 a.m. and it shows 34 at 4 a.m.   

It shows a lot of snow falling fairly early Monday night though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I guess it's kind of ridiculous to be splitting hairs aver an event a couple of days out when we have snow tonight.  I feel good about the Monday night / Tuesday prospects though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, lowlandsnow said:

NWS issued a winter storm warning for Whatcom county 

Winter Weather Advisory for Western Whatcom county upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Locations away from the water...Lynden, Sumas Ferndale now forecast to get 3 to 6 inches of snow tonight into Sunday morning

Another great Whatcom County winter for sure.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It shows a lot of snow falling fairly early Monday night though.

You are right... there is an initial band between 4-7 p.m. that evening.    I was wondering earlier if that might be convective.   Its in the mid 40s on Monday afternoon and then temps drop to mid 30s that evening with that precip.     Don't think that would be 10:1 snow.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Saturday looks much more interesting on this ECMWF run.   Precip is much farther east... but its during the day so temps are more challenging.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7974400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-7974400.png

Saturday trended better on the GFS too. 

Looking at the ensembles it isn't a mystery as to why. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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