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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I guess it's kind of ridiculous to be splitting hairs aver an event a couple of days out when we have snow tonight.  I feel good about the Monday night / Tuesday prospects though.

Monday night and Tuesday are much more challenging for the models because it comes down to the track of a surface low.   Tonight is a much easier scenario for the models.   I think that system has the best potential this week for sure... but you are right that the details just can't be known yet.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm a bit confused though, because the surface obs say it will be 30 in this area for much of that.  At any rate the next run will be different anyway.

Always remember to look aloft! - 925 mb height temps are above freezing on the Euro.

Can see a fairly definitive warm nose aloft that would "slopify" the snowflakes as they move through that layer.

 

Screen Shot 2023-02-25 at 10.34.41 PM.png

Screen Shot 2023-02-25 at 10.44.55 PM.png

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You are right... there is an initial band between 4-7 p.m. that evening.    I was wondering earlier if that might be convective.   Its in the mid 40s on Monday afternoon and then temps drop to mid 30s that evening with that precip.     Don't think that would be 10:1 snow.

Sounds like a layer of slushy mush, then a freeze, then some mode slush just in time for the morning commute? Won't take much accumulation to make a mess on the roads if that's the case. Dense slop is awful for driving.

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2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Snowing at a decent clip in north Seattle 

Very good news!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

NWS issued a winter storm warning for Whatcom county 

Winter Weather Advisory for Western Whatcom county upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Locations away from the water...Lynden, Sumas Ferndale now forecast to get 3 to 6 inches of snow tonight into Sunday morning

¡Qué una sorpresa!

It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

NWS issued a winter storm warning for Whatcom county 

Winter Weather Advisory for Western Whatcom county upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Locations away from the water...Lynden, Sumas Ferndale now forecast to get 3 to 6 inches of snow tonight into Sunday morning

The NWS is such a hot mess....I got the alert about 10-20 minutes ago, pulled it up and said it was for the foot hills, Mt. Baker Ski area, etc.  Now I when I check, it aligns with what you posted...not  the first time this has happened this winter...

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24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We shall see.  Maybe this will be a long overdue dry spring.  I know I'll skewered for saying that though.

Hell yeah you will. We literally just had our driest spring in recorded history two years ago. Last year was cold and wet but it was our first such spring in 10 years. Spring 2019 and 2020 were also incredibly dry.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, westcoastexpat said:

Always remember to look aloft! - 925 mb height temps are above freezing on the Euro.

Can see a fairly definitive warm nose aloft that would "slopify" the snowflakes as they move through that layer.

 

Screen Shot 2023-02-25 at 10.34.41 PM.png

Screen Shot 2023-02-25 at 10.44.55 PM.png

It drops quickly though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saturday trended better on the GFS too. 

Looking at the ensembles it isn't a mystery as to why. 

All of next weekend is much wetter on the ECMWF compared to its 12Z run.    The trough is much less suppressed on the 00Z run.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hell yeah you will. We literally just had our driest spring in recorded history two years ago. Last year was cold and wet but it was our first such spring in 10 years. Spring 2019 and 2020 were also incredibly dry.

I guess spring is when I have no tolerance for gloom.  By far my least favorite season here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Temp has rose all the way up to 40.1 and not one drop of precip yet 

Been a slow but steady drop here all evening.  Right at 36 now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Monday night and Tuesday are much more challenging for the models because it comes down to the track of a surface low.   Tonight is a much easier scenario for the models.   I think that system has the best potential this week for sure... but you are right that the details just can't be known yet.  

The challenge for the models tonight was how much moisture makes it through the curtain of dry air.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Temp has rose all the way up to 40.1 and not one drop of precip yet 

I've been stuck in 40's hell and being under "light rain" on radar despite nothing actually falling yet. Felt way too warm outside when I was chilling on the porch. 

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Would also add surprisingly breezy given no Fraser valley influence.

The snow is small and quite dry.  I was not expecting that given our temps in the metro.

ECMWF shows its a SE wind right now ahead of the front.   Definitely makes sense that you are seeing windy conditions in Seattle.

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-wnd10m_stream-7391200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Blocking on steroids later on.  What a run!

EDIT:  I meant run of weather....not model run.

1678190400-j60tdjj1dz0.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Blocking on steroids later on.  What a run!

1678190400-j60tdjj1dz0.png

So much high latitude blocking... seems like its been a theme for a couple years now.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Blocking on steroids later on.  What a run!

EDIT:  I meant run of weather....not model run.

1678190400-j60tdjj1dz0.png

Will be interesting once that period starts coming more into focus. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So much high latitude blocking... seems like its been a theme for a couple years now.  

That big SSW came home to roost.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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FWIW the GEFS control has been very cold for many runs now.  Most runs it drops to -10 to -12 and stays there for quite a while.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is at 39 with a dewpoint of 27 and a SW wind gusting to 37 mph.    Strange night. 

I'm thankful it's only easterly seepage here.  I think that might help this area.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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