Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
I’m actually optimistic about a wetter pattern as the MJO returns to the E-Hem. Maybe not quite to the level of the 12z CMC, but in that general direction. There’s nothing in the system state to suggest 2024 will be a dry tinderbox in the PNW.
That said, those in CA/SW US should keep a watchful eye as the second half of this year could flip dry. Good thing those reservoirs are filled to the brim because La Niña will take no prisoners once it establishes.
Only “good” news is we shouldn’t have the godzilla-like 4CH roasting the intermountain west this summer. Will be at least somewhat flatter/suppressed, but not to the extent of 2008 where it was almost nonexistent. More likely to resemble 2020 or 2010.
54 degrees and sunny now. Another beautiful morning, and even easier to enjoy with something besides endless sun and warmth in the forecast at the moment.
Nice to see widespread lows in the 30s again this morning. PDX decoupled more quickly and actually got a degree or two colder than last night it appears.
Low of 36 here with some light frost but not as much as yesterday. Still impressive to see frost on back to back mornings this late.
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