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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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2 minutes ago, BlvuSumit said:

Can see snow down to Lake WA shore towards SeaTac.

Liking the 12z GFS output haha

 

44D84EFC-7566-4E4F-8D88-4B67EBB9CF3B.jpeg

I love that area up there.  You must be very close the Newcastle golf course.    The views up there on a clear day are truly stunning!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I love that area up there.  You must be very close the Newcastle golf course.    The views up there on a clear day are truly stunning!  

Definitely the place to live if you want to score significantly more snow but not live a long ways out from Downtown Seattle or Downtown Bellevue.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Weekend trough looks improved. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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55 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Only a dusting fell by 1:30am? That’s crazy we probably had 3/4 to almost 1” here by that time. We didn’t get much accumulation after about 2:30-3:00am roughly. I believe the gfs and euro run’s yesterday afternoon had us at 1.2-1.4” so it was very close to being accurate atleast here. Haven’t been down to the waterfront but I’d guess they had less than half what I got. 

I’m pretty exposed to the sw wind here so maybe that made a difference.
 

Current state shown below. 

57052B07-CC8C-464D-B845-99DC25CE7AC2.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I love that area up there.  You must be very close the Newcastle golf course.    The views up there on a clear day are truly stunning!  

Man if you like weather… wind events outrageous up here because unobstructed exposure and you can see it coming as the transformer flashes work their way up the puget lowlands. And of course elevation nice for the snow events. And during inversions you’re above the socked in fog. 
down below is the golf course (see open snowy are in foto). But man is the wear and tear on home is brutal!

15F8FCEA-F0A0-4C71-A2DA-F59B6630778D.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Weekend trough looks improved. 

12Z GFS shows lots of Hood Canal snow over the weekend... but a little too warm elsewhere.    

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_48hr-8104000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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35 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

The GFS is just an awful model for snow totals.  I actually started to think the more it showed the better chance for snow.  Not true.  That model's output for snowfall is not much better than a random generator.  34 after a low of 32.7

It's a resolution issue. If your a low elevation location next to mountains it has zero chance of verification in marginal temp scenario's. Gfs last week was showing 150-200" for donner summit in the 15 day and it looks like it will verify after this next blizzard finishes. It had 60-90" for my house and it is going to verify as well. 

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1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

It's a resolution issue. If your a low elevation location next to mountains it has zero chance of verification in marginal temp scenario's. Gfs last week was showing 150-200" for donner summit in the 15 day and it looks like it will verify after this next blizzard finishes. It had 60-90" for my house and it is going to verify as well. 

That is the issue in my area... too close to the mountains the only way I know the GFS is seriously showing snow for my area is when it shows snow in the Seattle area.   Verbatim... I would probably have like 500 inches of snow this winter per the GFS.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, BlvuSumit said:

Man if you like weather… wind events outrageous up here because unobstructed exposure and you can see it coming as the transformer flashes work their way up the puget lowlands. And of course elevation nice for the snow events. And during inversions you’re above the socked in fog. 
down below is the golf course (see open snowy are in foto). But man is the wear and tear on home is brutal!

15F8FCEA-F0A0-4C71-A2DA-F59B6630778D.jpeg

We looked at property somewhere up that way probably 13 or so years ago, the view was incredible and all I could think of was the snowfall potential! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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40 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

The GFS is just an awful model for snow totals.  I actually started to think the more it showed the better chance for snow.  Not true.  That model's output for snowfall is not much better than a random generator.  34 after a low of 32.7

The Euro hasn't been much better this week. It's routinely been showing anywhere from 10-20" of snow for the next week up here. I'll be shocked if we end up getting 10% of that. Reminds me of November? (or was it December) when it was showing almost a foot of snow the night before and all we had was 38F rain.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

It's a resolution issue. If your a low elevation location next to mountains it has zero chance of verification in marginal temp scenario's. Gfs last week was showing 150-200" for donner summit in the 15 day and it looks like it will verify after this next blizzard finishes. It had 60-90" for my house and it is going to verify as well. 

I've noticed that too, in places that are not marginal (ie high elevation areas 3000-4000' +) it seems to be quite good, low elevations or areas of variable elevation change, not so much

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34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Breakfast! 

E1ACE8BB-8FB8-43C2-BEAC-894F5481622E.jpeg

What is that giant black bird next to the sheep? Looks a bit large for a chicken.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Just now, Skagit Weather said:

The Euro hasn't been much better this week. It's routinely been showing anywhere from 10-20" of snow for the next week up here. I'll be shocked if we end up getting 10% of that. Reminds me of November? (or was it December) when it was showing almost a foot of snow the night before and all we had was 38F rain.

This week atleast here in the south sound might play out very similar to late November-early Decembers events. Bunch of 32-34 degree snows with the snow level at about 100’. 

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1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

The Euro hasn't been much better this week. It's routinely been showing anywhere from 10-20" of snow for the next week up here. I'll be shocked if we end up getting 10% of that. Reminds me of November? (or was it December) when it was showing almost a foot of snow the night before and all we had was 38F rain.

These marginal situations cause the models huge problems and when the marginal situation goes on for a week or more the total snowfall maps get pretty ridiculous.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The mesoscale models are picking something up….❄️

362CD949-AE5A-4B08-B7B5-EB2C2962A5DB.png

994F9C99-EED2-48E7-AE53-52B66B456B95.png

Pepto needs to trend a little more north. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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You all enjoying that snow guys? 

Still hasn't really snowed at all here other than that one day in December. And more thunderstorms might be on the way tomorrow. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

NAM hates Spokane but has been pretty close with this event.  yesterday was showing 1-2" seems like that may even be a little aggressive but close.  The HRW suite has been pretty close too.  RDPS, not so much 

I’m just going to take a moment to remind you that you probably live in the best climate for cold and snow than any other Oregon/Washington poster.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m just going to take a moment to remind you that you probably live in the best climate for cold and snow than any other Oregon/Washington poster.

It's been decent this year.  This season has been weird.  way more nickel and dimers than normal.  only one real 'big' (6"+) event to speak of (7.5" on 11/30). Jan and Feb have been pretty crappy so far for snow. I think we'll come in right at or just below normal on annual snowfall this season.  Not exactly what I was expecting for a triple dip Nina.  it'll be ok though, still some late season chances

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6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

It's been decent this year.  This season has been weird.  way more nickel and dimers than normal.  only one real 'big' (6"+) event to speak of (7.5" on 11/30). Jan and Feb have been pretty crappy so far for snow. I think we'll come in right at or just below normal on annual snowfall this season.  Not exactly what I was expecting for a triple dip Nina.  it'll be ok though, still some late season chances

What’s your total?

It's called clown range for a reason.

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