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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Just now, MossMan said:

It appears that Snowmizer was the big winner in western Wa! 

And he might be in the best spot going forward for the next week as well.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Southerlies broke through about 8 AM here, temp is 35.4F now. Got about 2 inches of new snow on non road surfaces and just 1 inch on the road which is now quickly turned to slush. 

No complaints from me though. I do wish it had gone a bit better for most of the PDX metro, was just a bit too warm last night. 

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ECMWF is a little farther south... notable improvement for the Seattle area for Tuesday.     Models seem to be converging on the same track of the low.    The devil is in the details in terms of precip amounts and temps.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7628800 (3).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

We will see what happens today/tonight. I’m not expecting a whole lot of action here, although it is possible we could get a bit of snow tonight or maybe some hail this afternoon. Our next good chance will be tomorrow night. 

I’m just good with the active weather regardless.  Been fun this year with all our chances.  Been years where absolutely nothing falls.  So this has been a real treat! Gorgeous out now ☺️

39* with south winds still blowing 15-20 

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Surprisingly the GFS did the best here out of all the models. All models were showing 1.5”+ here and the GFS was the lowest at 1.5”. Even the ECMWF had me getting near 2”. Definitely a tough situation for the models to get right as a lot of other areas near the sound had the same fate unfortunately. Got 0.25” in reality.

(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is a little farther south... notable improvement for the Seattle area for Tuesday.     Models seem to be converging on the same track of the low.    The devil is in the details in terms of precip amounts and temps.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7628800 (3).png

I’m liking what I see. What time will snow start on Monday? This looks way better than last night. 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is a little farther south... notable improvement for the Seattle area for Tuesday.     Models seem to be converging on the same track of the low.    The devil is in the details in terms of precip amounts and temps.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7628800 (3).png

That is respectable, I will take it. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’m liking what I see. What time will snow start on Monday? This looks way better than last night. 

The event looks like its spread out from 8 p.m. on Monday through noon on Tuesday.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Quick 3/4" last night was what was managed before it started warming again. Euro did pretty well. 

Same here across the river. Had high hopes as it was snowing pretty hard when I went to bed, but the only accumulation IMBY this morning are leftovers from Wednesday.

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The euro for the Monday night Tuesday deal looks like a non event compared to most other models.

If u zoom in, it looks good and a lot better for up north. I would be surpised if totals were that low tbh for the south sound 

AD9A3FFC-D163-4D33-9290-021521F1AF77.png

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40 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It appears that Snowmizer was the big winner in western Wa! 

If I got 5 then right along the canal got 7 in places I'd guess. Last week when I got 4.7 cuahman got 12 inches. Talked to a person who lives there. He also said they are about 100 inches on the season total. Incredible for 1000ft .

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If u zoom in, it looks good and a lot better for up north. I would be surpised if totals were that low tbh for the south sound 

AD9A3FFC-D163-4D33-9290-021521F1AF77.png

Should also mention that the slightly weaker and further south scenario means the SW wind does not punch through nearly as much on Tuesday afternoon as previous runs showed.   Then it clears up Tuesday night and Wednesday starts off frozen solid and is sunny all day with temps struggling to reach 40.    It should not melt nearly as fast after that event.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If u zoom in, it looks good and a lot better for up north. I would be surpised if totals were that low tbh for the south sound 

AD9A3FFC-D163-4D33-9290-021521F1AF77.png

I was going to take down the Christmas lights today…But perhaps I should wait…

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, smerfylicious said:

Well NWS and all the models except WRF busted for my area.

NWS thought we were getting 3".

We got zero. It just never cooled down enough, even with extremely low dew points and relatively low temps. Nothing more disappointing 

I imagine you caught some downsloping with SE flow last night.  There was a fairly strong low crossing SW BC around midnight.  Pressure was down to 994mb at my place around midnight.  Not sure if it went any lower. 

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