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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seems like focus will be right over the Seattle area too.

Pretty skeptical on tonight for Seattle with shadowing. WSW flow looks like it’ll bring scattered accumulations in the South Sound but I have a hard time imagining much makes it North of Seattle. Tomorrow night has my full attention though for sure. Temps look a couple degrees cooler than last night. 

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Today over achieved like crazy, our biggest calendar day snowfall of the year, quite possible we can add the inch or two necessary to get to 10” on the day. Some sunbreaks now and a little late afternoon melting, currently 33 on a 34/31 day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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53 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

A6DCB084-FE86-4353-83D5-39E6240D8250.png

This looks like a roided up version of the NAM. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Today over achieved like crazy, our biggest calendar day snowfall of the year, quite possible we can add the inch or two necessary to get to 10” on the day. Some sunbreaks now and a little late afternoon melting, currently 33 on a 34/31 day. 

What is your snow depth?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What is your snow depth? 

7DA1AAF5-E034-46BC-9462-B930F658D79A.jpeg
About 12-14”. We peaked at a 10” depth Thursday, by yesterday evening it had melted/settled to about 5-6”. So we have more than doubled it today. This has been very wet snow so there has been a little melting and some settling this afternoon too. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

The feature off shore will definitely be impacting well before tomorrow night.

Some models are showing it rotating a band of moisture up from the south tomorrow morning.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Here is a good view on the system coming in.  First band reaches the coast early tomorrow morning but that splits apart as it moves inland.   Then the surface low comes inland on Tuesday morning and that is where the focus of attention has been on here in the Puget Sound area.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_1hr_inch-1677434400-1677484800-1677632400-20.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hmmm fairly juicy precip coming offshore-- might be good for some hillier areas.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z EPS is pretty emphatic about the block lifting away later in the run... seems like this would lead to a wet pattern.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1677412800-1678276800-1678708800-10.gif

A wet pattern sounds good to me! We're still significantly behind precip on the year (I'm at 4.70" which is about half of normal), although February seems to have been closer to average for the mountains and the snowpack is starting to approach average (still pretty low for a la niña year though).

YearPNormDEWS_PACNW_0226.thumb.png.975cab4fea0b197de87381ad0c8a0438.png

MonthPNormDEWS_PACNW_0226.thumb.png.0df1da1ee0e33e4d73b4ed49d52a72c8.png

397669528_Screenshot2023-02-26at5_04_12PM.thumb.png.222ede3113eb0a9815951792c0c29305.png

 

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is a good view on the system coming in.  First band reaches the coast early tomorrow morning but that splits apart as it moves inland.   Then the surface low comes inland on Tuesday morning and that is where the focus of attention has been on here in the Puget Sound area.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_1hr_inch-1677434400-1677484800-1677632400-20.gif

Too bad it splits like that. Do you have a precip total map for this time period?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Too bad it splits like that. Do you have a precip total map for this time period?

This is from now through Tuesday evening.

ecmwf-deterministic-or_wa-precip_48hr_inch-7632400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is from now through Tuesday evening.

ecmwf-deterministic-or_wa-precip_48hr_inch-7632400.png

The Siskyious and Trinity Alps are going to get buried. 
 

This confirms what I saw on the loop, the focus of the moisture is more south. This does explain the Kuchera numbers we saw, as well. Looks like the EURO blesses us with around 1.2” of precip in this period. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

These showers are going to have an easier time moving in now…the flows more SWerly as opposed to straight westerly like it was this morning/early afternoon. Bodes well for places south of Seattle tonight. 

This is a good one and missing me by a few blocks. 

61BF9E56-2AB4-4C81-B6CF-11A637D19FBA.jpeg

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Shower activity really picking up again across NW Oregon. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seems like focus will be right over the Seattle too.

Yep. Might actually get more snow tonight than last night. We wasted a good chunk of the event on virga and rain.

I'm actually more interested in this evening than I was at any point about early this morning. Tonight's convective nature yields a much higher potential than last night's vanilla stratoform event.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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14 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Will Portland get anything tonight 

Yes, no, maybe so

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yep. Might actually get more snow tonight than last night. We wasted a good chunk of the event on virga and rain.

I'm actually more interested in this evening than I was at any point about early this morning. Tonight's convective nature yields a much higher potential than last night's vanilla stratoform event.

What makes you think there will be so much more moisture around the Central Sound than modeled? 18z Euro was basically totally dry North of Tacoma. 
 

I’m not sure the flow have enough Southerly component for the showers to push that far North, but I could be wrong. I’d feel pretty good living between about SeaTac and Olympia and especially out toward the foothills of South King and Pierce Counties.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

What makes you think there will be so much more moisture around the Central Sound than modeled? 18z Euro was basically totally dry North of Tacoma. 
 

I’m not sure the flow have enough Southerly component for the showers to push that far North, but I could be wrong. I’d feel pretty good living between about SeaTac and Olympia and especially out toward the foothills of South King and Pierce Counties.

Looks like a southerly component to the flow is added ahead of the incoming disturbance seen drifting a few hundred miles offshore on satellite. Perhaps its low center is stronger than projected, and as such cyclonic flow ahead it is enhanced. The lift in the Sound is caused by speed shear/sfc convergence.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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