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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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47 minutes ago, Doinko said:

HRRR also shows a few bands of snow in the metro area with temps around 32/33. Not going to get to excited since marginal events barely go well here but something could happen at least
snku_acc-imp.us_nw.png

Yeah the latest 01z HRRR shows a band of snow coming through early tomorrow that looks a lot like the Euro and GFS

ref1km_ptype.us_state_or.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_state_or.png

prateptype_cat-imp.us_state_or.png

 

The 00z NAM has it too but puts SLE in the bullseye

ref1km_ptype.us_state_or.png

The 12z GEM also puts the focus over SLE

prateptype-imp.us_nw.png

 

The euro actually shows 31F as the surface temp in PDX during this

sfct-imp.us_state_or.png

here is the GFS

sfct-imp.us_state_or.png

 

I think this exact feature is on enough models that it actually is more interesting than I first thought. 

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2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Yuck, it even swings too far north for here. Looks like that nails the exact same area that was nailed last week in a completely different setup.

It’s over. Well onto spring!! Oh wait we have to wait one more day. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

So we won’t get snow in the northern Willamette valley right 

No? I mean, we could. Just choose your contender as far as models go. EURO and GRAF are pretty great for at least some brief sticking snow down to sea-level metro-wide, while other models are stingier with the precip and as such leave us with nothing or a dusting at the highest elevations in the city. What will happen we have no idea until it actually does.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

alright. Time to wrap it up and shut down the forums for the spring and summer. May be quite UNBEARABLE. If you know, you know.

What about spring and summer thunderstorms?!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Maybe time to stop watching the models and start watching the radar. It's snowing here again and cooling down quick. Most of the earlier stuff melted but the ground is now covered again. If we get screwed tonight it will be 100% due to a lack of precipitation not temperatures. 

On the UW radar loop... it looks like the precip shield is becoming negatively tilted across all of western WA and OR and beginning to move inland.   You can see the center of circulation off the central WA coast.

https://atmos.uw.edu/current-weather/northwest-radar/

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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One note on the UW radar loop... sometimes its helpful to set the loop length to 8 hours and go at the highest speed to see the overall picture of what is happening.    Its hard to get context when only viewing the default 1-hour loop.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I needed to see what the latest was. Everyone round these parts think we are going to get few inches to a dumping of snow 🤣🤔. The UW model is rarely right over here but it was correct last time. Temp is marginal, but maybe an inch. Enough for that two hour delay or closure. 
sure hope El Niño will be kind to the kids in July 🤣

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Anyone have tips for nowcasting this? Don't have much experience with analyzing sat imagery for stuff like this.

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The nam is on moonshine.

There won't be that huge dry spot east of Aberdeen like that. 

And right over my house.   Like that ever happens.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The nam is on moonshine.

There won't be that huge dry spot east of Aberdeen like that. 

It the NAM is on moonshine... what is the ICON smoking??    The 00Z run is so stupid.  

icon-all-washington-total_snow_10to1-7628800 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, gusky said:

Anyone have tips for nowcasting this? Don't have much experience with analyzing sat imagery for stuff like this.

This MAY come off as sarcastic, but I suggest you sit by a window with a view of a street light. Indirect lighting is most effective.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Use your streetlight.  

Trust me, I don't need to learn that one. I'm halfway out my window staring straight at the lightbulb when snow is starting

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

This MAY come off as sarcastic, but I suggest you sit by a window with a view of a street light. Indirect lighting is most effective.

See my last post... I'm surprised I haven't fallen out of my window looking at streetlights

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Cloud said:

alright. Time to wrap it up and shut down the forums for the spring and summer. May be quite UNBEARABLE. If you know, you know.

Get out of my head. Literally just thought this reading through the comments. I give this winter an A for effort but a B- or worse for performance in my area.

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12 minutes ago, gusky said:

Anyone have tips for nowcasting this? Don't have much experience with analyzing sat imagery for stuff like this.

I used to think you could extrapolate based on precip moving on the radar, but then I realized it almost always dissipates before hitting me, especially when snow is involved... Now I just look at the forum and am even more confused. 

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1 minute ago, Eugene Snow said:

Biggest snowflakes I have ever seen.  1 inch on the ground and accumulating fast.  Gonna be a fun night.

Radar doesn’t even usually pick things up by Eugene and it’s showing up plenty so must be quite convective with high cloud tops.

D447CC79-C295-4ED6-ACEA-91E57A8A6709.thumb.png.9965ffd380b306fd2be0b459d3e206bf.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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One thing that is pretty easy to Nowcast is comparing where a low center is modeled to be vs. where it actually is. You can figure out where it is based on surface winds, sea-level pressure readings, or, when it's offshore, where it looks like the clouds are spinning around. 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Radar doesn’t even usually pick things up by Eugene and it’s showing up plenty so must be quite convective with high cloud tops.

D447CC79-C295-4ED6-ACEA-91E57A8A6709.thumb.png.9965ffd380b306fd2be0b459d3e206bf.png

I seriously don't think I could handle living in an area with almost no radar coverage!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It the NAM is on moonshine... what is the ICON smoking??    The 00Z run is so stupid.  

icon-all-washington-total_snow_10to1-7628800 (1).png

At least it has the southern focus right over my house. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Radar is looking quite vibrant and dewpoints are crashing.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Phishy Wx said:

oof NWS Spokane has fallen victim to the "Graphic"

 

 

Oof. Though according to the recent post by mjreich, the NBM should be performing better now than it did last week, because we are not in the midst of a major pattern switch but have had a similar pattern for a little while now. 

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3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

oof NWS Spokane has fallen victim to the "Graphic"

 

 

At least it's not as bad as this one

image.thumb.png.0ea414aa2187ef49e295a5f800fdbfac.png

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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