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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Here's what I'm watching tonight. Tahoe City getting righteously dumped on.

 

No, I'm not jealous at all! Why would you say that?

https://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/cobblestone-center

That’s a magnificent shot.

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Interestingly... the northern low position tomorrow morning on the 00Z GFS is basically identical to the 12Z and 18Z run but still ends up snowier for Seattle.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

00z GFS is further south with that surface low coming ashore tomorrow AM. Would be more of a central WV special if this verified. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_3.png

Mark Nelsen just mentioned the possibility
There will probably be a few towns/spots that pick up 1-3″ in the lowlands. I have a feeling someone between Longview and Eugene in the I-5 corridor will get nailed by at least 2″ of snow in the next 24 hours. That didn’t happen this morning, but it’s more likely tomorrow morning. We can’t tell you where that will happen, which is even more reason to give yourself extra time in the morning. 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly... the northern low position tomorrow morning on the 00Z GFS is basically identical to the 12Z and 18Z run but still ends up snowier for Seattle.

Yea was about to mention that…..  a lot less precip out near Neah Bay and a lot more in the sound this time….. who knows lol

7490E974-12BC-4BFC-B6BC-CFBF194D4883.png

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea was about to mention that…..  a lot less precip out near Neah Bay and a lot more in the sound this time….. who knows lol

7490E974-12BC-4BFC-B6BC-CFBF194D4883.png

Absolutely lovely!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The NAM, ICON, and GFS are all better than their 18z runs.  This could still end up ok.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Can someone explain to me what this part of Cliff Mass's latest blog post means? He starts by saying rhe model is showing snowfall, not snow depth. But then talks about how the snowfall wpuld be less over the warmer water. Why? If we're just talking about snowfall and not accumulating snow, why would the sea level temp matter? If the snow levels is dropped due to evaporation rates, how would the surface below the precipitation impact the amount that falls? Is it that much warmer feet above the water than feet above the land?

Obviously being closer to water makes snow less likely but I thought that had more to do with it being less chance of accumulating or in the case of the coast, less access to continental air than how much snow actually fell. Anyone bored and care to explain? 

Screenshot_20230227-193803_Chrome.jpg

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Radar really blossoming both at the Washington Coast and South of Centralia. That’s a good sign for the Puget Sound region after midnight.

 

2DA8DFBE-7134-4F36-A47A-A0779942A630.png

3FCF57B3-0A76-4331-ACFE-DB8286AA37A1.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, MWG said:

This really gives me hope about tonight into tomorrow! 🤗

Rooting for you as you're still super overdue! Great video of snow at the school. I bet you still have people in Medford complaining about the snow, right? Enjoy it!

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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SEA is really racking up the minus departures.  A -8 today and their 11th freezing min of the month.  Dec and Feb are both going to end up over 3F below normal, and decently below the old normals.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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00z GEM is bringing that little surface low into the central WV too. Unless the 00z Euro says otherwise I think this will be a pretty nice surprise for people down there. I will never say no to more snow but if PDX gets missed but Salem to Eugene get a nice little event, that is just fine by me. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_3.png

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM is way better from Seattle northward than its 12Z run. 

gem-all-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7639600 (1).png

Yuck.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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37 minutes ago, Dave said:

Sticking everywhere. Already have a half inch on my fence. This brings my seasonal total to 1".

Wow. I’m already wrong and the night is young. This band moving through here has dropped about an inch in 15 minutes. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

00z GEM is bringing that little surface low into the central WV too. Unless the 00z Euro says otherwise I think this will be a pretty nice surprise for people down there. I will never say no to more snow but if PDX gets missed but Salem to Eugene get a nice little event, that is just fine by me. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_3.png

I'm not gonna be too unhappy if that thing misses PDX, but I do also think that it's still definitely gonna be a GOLU and SILAR (stay inside look at radar 😅) situation for us. We know how those small minute differences make all the difference in real time.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

WRF-GFS doesn’t look good so far🤮

It's showing way too much drying in King County.  The offshore flow is weak.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The NAM, ICON, and GFS are all better than their 18z runs.  This could still end up ok.

The NAM and GFS are better... the ICON is terrible and worse than its 18Z run.    We can add in the GEM being overall better now as well.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, MossMan said:

We are almost to the point of looking at the most reliable model out there…

496FEB4C-0AED-4C43-9554-E75CD3BEC08C.jpeg

For security purposes, click the tiles that show a lampost.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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