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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Winter storm warning going for 5-10” here. Seems like a decent call. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's showing way too much drying in King County.  The offshore flow is weak.

I don't think its drying from east wind... all the models shows southerly flow into Seattle by morning.   I have not seen any models showing offshore flow tomorrow.    It just comes down to track of the low and where the best lifting will end up to the north and east of the low.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Requiem said:

I'm not gonna be too unhappy if that thing misses PDX, but I do also think that it's still definitely gonna be a GOLU and SILAR (stay inside look at radar 😅) situation for us. We know how those small minute differences make all the difference in real time.

The 18z Euro is fairly close to ideal, spreads the precip much further north but still good snow cover down south. Will be curious to see what the 00z Euro says and as you said, it will be impossible to predict the exact placement of this thing. Surprises are almost certain to happen. 

There is a reason why Mark thinks lowland snow is likely somewhere but won't narrow it down more than saying somewhere between Longview and Eugene. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-7639600.png.cd2598bbdc2aa2b43be3014d7cf0be6a.png

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2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

This is… odd looking image.thumb.png.b579fa04e1207b77ae5bec4a0f3774c4.png

Way different than the 12km.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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36 minutes ago, Dave said:

400' here. Street lamp alert.

 

20230227_193937.jpg

Great pix! Anything for @TigerWoodsLibidosince our other Eugene area posters like you and @Eujunga and @Eugene Snow have flakes???

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  • Snow 1

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM is way better from Seattle northward than its 12Z run. 

gem-all-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7639600 (1).png

I’m in the purple!

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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I really like the 4km WRF, but I'm trying to figure out why it's showing what it is.  I think this confirms the relatively high uncertainty with this event.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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With the ICON I was looking at water equivalent and not snowfall.  It is wetter that its 18z run.  Precip type probably isn't a question late tonight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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New euro weeklies keep the CONUS in a generally cool, stormy pattern out to at least mid-April, including the West. ❄️ 

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Loving the last minute trends snowier on the GFS and GEM. Hoping the Euro will follow suit. I feel like with how it’s basically stuck to its guns today it’s either going to be about the same or snowier.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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King County dew points are well below 30 now.  That and cold mid levels should definitely do the trick for precip type.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'll take it...

 

The initial shortwave disturbance rotating around within the broad
upper level trough of lower pressure is swinging across the 
northern mountain zones, which also includes the Spokane/Coeur 
d'Alene corridor. We have received a couple reports already of 
near an inch in the Spokane Area. Snow ratios appear to be close 
to 10/1, which is a bit higher that previously forecast and 
partially accounts for the higher snowfall totals so far.

There will be a little break in the moderate snow, but the next 
shortwave disturbance is already rounding the trough and pushing 
across northeast Oregon. Radar imagery is showing enhancement near
Walla Walla with colder cloud tops also being noticed on IR
satellite imagery. This next round looks to bring a period of
moderate to heavy snow late tonight. It's a little bit stronger
and models are indicating a meso low spinning up over eastern
Washington that would bring enhancement as well. A surface low
spinning up will also draw warm, moist air aloft where a west-east
oriented band of heavier snow is expected to form after midnight
tonight. Along with steep lapse rates at mid levels, we are likely
to see pockets of convective enhancement where bursts of heavy
snow will be possible.


The nested NAM seems to be doing a good job with the track of 
this meso low spinning it up near Walla Walla over the next few 
hours through about midnight. Then the model tracks this low 
northward across St. John and into the Spokane Area between 
2:00-4:00 AM. The heaviest snow is expected to fall where this 
smaller scale circulation spins up and we could see snow rates of 
up to an inch per hour.
 Expect roads to be snow covered, slick and
difficult to drive on during the morning commute tomorrow

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Pouring rain.

This winter gets a C+. So many great patterns and hardly anything to show for it. We did have a couple of good arctic air intrusions, and a decent ice storm, but other than that this winter will go down as rather unmemorable.

Time to go back to daydreaming about moving to a place with more consistent winter weather. ❄️

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7 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

RGEM is not good south of Everett.

EAD0601D-3B8E-497A-BEBF-9174D11D1916.png

We're pretty much to watch the radar time now.  I think it will come out better than that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, awright-31 said:

Pouring rain.

This winter gets a C+. So many great patterns and hardly anything to show for it. We did have a couple of good arctic air intrusions, and a decent ice storm, but other than that this winter will go down as rather unmemorable.

Time to go back to daydreaming about moving to a place with more consistent winter weather. ❄️

I think you are in one of those places that has fallen through the cracks this winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're pretty much to watch the radar time now.  I think it will come out better than that.

Yeah the radar looks juicy to the south.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think you are in one of those places that has fallen through the cracks this winter.

I've had less snow than you from your signature but I really enjoyed this winter because most of it fell all at once with that incredible snowstorm last week. Only half of January 2017's total here but it was really incredible especially for late February

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20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

With the ICON I was looking at water equivalent and not snowfall.  It is wetter that its 18z run.  Precip type probably isn't a question late tonight.

I am confused about precip type as well... the ECMWF shows the southerlies that are reaching Portland now translating up to Seattle by morning with the main precip band before the low falls apart and the wind dies off later in the day.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_mph-1677520800-1677556800-1677628800-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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