PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Gummy said:

Conflicting ICON reports!

I got a report. ICON is unimportant?

[Cold Snap]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That just happened IMBY on December 20th. None of the models predicted 10–14" in metro Vancouver.

Yeah that storm trended just north enough to where I was less than 10 miles south of the rain snow line but you guys got hammered instead of the Seattle area. I still managed a 3” depth when all was said and done but that could have been huge for the Seattle area had it been 15 miles south of the original track.

[Slushy Inch]

18 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I wish I could have lived through all the days when the models busted on the less snowy side. The only snowstorm I can think of that the models busted too low was the first storm of Feb 2019. I was predicted 1-2” but I ended up with 7.5” from that storm!

Last event of 2019 was underdone as well.

[Slushy Inch]

Funny how little the mean changed.

[Weiner Warrior]

A lot of wishful thinking going on tonight 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I believe the February 2011 event was also supposed to be nearly nothing snow wise up here anyway…Ended up with about 20”. 

Way too early to get either too excited or disappointed about snow prospects.  I will say that in general blocking in the position this is going to be usually supports snow for the Puget Sound region.  This is going to be very -PNA heavy with only modestly low EPO.  Usually good for Seattle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Funny how little the mean changed.

Gorgeous. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

A lot of wishful thinking going on tonight 

For what?  The cold pattern is very likely to happen.

[Slushy Inch]

Freezing high in March? That would be something. Mean is 39.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gorgeous. 

I mean after the first trough brings in the cold, a follow up system could start as snow.

[Weiner Warrior]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

For what?  The cold pattern is very likely to happen.

I don't know. I'm only happy if we get some snow with the cold and It's not looking to great 

[Slushy Inch]

Cold troughs forever. 

[Doinko]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models are often too dry going into these things.  The greatest all time bust I saw was in Nov 2010.  Models showed zilch for the Seattle area 24 hours before the Arctic air arrived and we got nailed.

This was the WRF less than 12 hrs before the 13" snowstorm started here

 

[Bueryan]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Cold troughs forever. 

I've got some magic beans for sale.

[Doinko]

Day 6

[Slushy Inch]

 

 

 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Bueryan said:

I've got some magic beans for sale.

What?! Don’t think we’ll have cold troughs forever? Dang. Guess your right.

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

 

 

 

Literal snowhole around PDX yet again 

[Slushy Inch]

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

This was the WRF less than 12 hrs before the 13" snowstorm started here

 

That is a classic situation where the WRF will fail miserably.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Not as horrible here at least. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not as horrible here at least. 

Better than expected honestly.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z ECMWF is definitely a step back in terms of snow for western WA compared to its 12Z run... and the 12Z run was a big step back from the 00Z run last night.    Not good trends today.   

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is a classic situation where the WRF will fail miserably.    

Euro was better but still way off. That was an amazing event

[Bueryan]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

What?! Don’t think we’ll have cold troughs forever? Dang. Guess your right.

Ok fine.. cold troughs forever.

[thickhog]

4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Literal snowhole around PDX yet again 

Forever and ever, Amen

[Doinko]

Euro is a bit slower with the cold than the 12z but it doesn't look nearly as likely to dig offshore and moderate quickly. The trough looks better entrenched over the west

[snow_wizard]

Some snow for King County on this ECMWF run.  850s drop at least to -15 as well.

[Doinko]

Day 7

[Requiem]

Where are the classic overrunning systems? We need one of those methinks, enough of the cold just slowly moderating.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Actually, definitely, technically, substantial....

 

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by GHweatherChris

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z ECMWF is definitely a step back in terms of snow for western WA compared to its 12Z run... and the 12Z run was a big step back from the 00Z run last night.    Not good trends today.   

Actually a bit more for here.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z ECMWF is definitely a step back in terms of snow for western WA compared to its 12Z run... and the 12Z run was a big step back from the 00Z run last night.    Not good trends today.   

12z was not a step back. The reality currently is that there is a chance for a dusting to a few inches.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Euro is a bit slower with the cold than the 12z but it doesn't look nearly as likely to dig offshore and moderate quickly. The trough looks better entrenched over the west

Might be easier for a re-load on this run for sure.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

34.0˚F. C'mon!!!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

12z was not a step back. The reality currently is there is a chance for a dusting to a few inches.

That was the 00Z run last night.   The 12Z was a big step back from that.   

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Might be easier for a re-load on this run for sure.

850s are actually colder on this run for PDX than the crazy 00z run yesterday, get down to -13/-14 which is very impressive. Surface isn't as cold though. 

[snow_wizard]

Another thing worth considering is it's extremely rare to have late season cold waves without decent snowfall.  Too early to get worked up yet.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That was the 00Z run last night.   The 12Z was a big step back from that.   

What I mean is that the 0z from last night was not that impressive, except for southern WA. Though this mornings EPS was a big step back.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Actually a bit more for here.

Even an inch would make the cold spell more memorable for sure.