PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Lotsa 50-burgers today. 

[MossMan]

This bird has been attacking my north facing bedroom window for the last hour straight…Think he is letting me know that it’s coming…From the north! 
 

Or he is just seeing himself in the window is is telling the “other bird to get lost, this is my territory!” 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Check out the 18z Euro run to run. Maybe GFS wins for once.

Yea we will have to wait until the EPS to see if this was reflected 

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea we will have to wait until the EPS to see if this was reflected 

It actually is a small difference by 90 hours.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Check out the 18z Euro run to run. Maybe GFS wins for once.

That is 06Z ECMWF compared to 18Z ECMWF.    Toggling back and forth between 18Z and 12Z runs at 90 hours doesn't look much different at all. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That is 06Z ECMWF compared to 18Z ECMWF.    Toggling back and forth between 18Z and 12Z runs at 90 hours doesn't look much different at all. 

Same for 6z to 18z basically the same by hour 90. Thanks for pointing that out.

[T-Town]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This bird has been attacking my north facing bedroom window for the last hour straight…Think he is letting me know that it’s coming…From the north! 
 

Or he is just seeing himself in the window is is telling the “other bird to get lost, this is my territory!” 

He wants in. He knows he can’t possibly survive what’s coming without shelter and a warm fire. 

[Prairiedog]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This bird has been attacking my north facing bedroom window for the last hour straight…Think he is letting me know that it’s coming…From the north! 
 

Or he is just seeing himself in the window is is telling the “other bird to get lost, this is my territory!” 

Song Sparrow.  I already am seeing some territorial behavior and songs have increased.  Gotta love the increasing photoperiods.  Now, can that somehow translate to more than slush on my windshield.  If I get the slushy trifecta, I'll stop feeding my birds, they're on their own.  Are bird songs and snowfall somehow mysteriously connected?  Worth studying.  LOL

[VancouverIslandSouth]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This bird has been attacking my north facing bedroom window for the last hour straight…Think he is letting me know that it’s coming…From the north! 
 

Or he is just seeing himself in the window is is telling the “other bird to get lost, this is my territory!” 

Let's hope that's it means the death of this snowless airmass - https://animals.howstuffworks.com/birds/10-superstitions-about-birds.htm#pt8

[MossMan]

North bend and Arlington will be the big cold winners next week according to NWS Seattle! 

Edited February 18, 2023 by MossMan

[Deweydog]

41 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Forcing my kids to listen to it until the first flakes fly, told them it was the only way. 

Hoping Andrew can swing this at Sunday service this weekend.

 

[RentonHill]

At captain whidbey for the night for the wifeys birthday. So calm. They have no idea what’s coming

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Song Sparrow.  I already am seeing some territorial behavior and songs have increased.  Gotta love the increasing photoperiods.  Now, can that somehow translate to more than slush on my windshield.  If I get the slushy trifecta, I'll stop feeding my birds, they're on their own.  Are bird songs and snowfall somehow mysteriously connected?  Worth studying.  LOL

Notice any frogs yet? I haven’t heard any so far this year, which at this point is getting pretty late. Hopefully it’s just the coolish weather and not a local population collapse.

[Slushy Inch]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is 06Z ECMWF compared to 18Z ECMWF.    Toggling back and forth between 18Z and 12Z runs at 90 hours doesn't look much different at all. 

There is a little trend at 6z Tuesday over the last three EPS runs. May just be timing changes. 

[T-Town]

57 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Forcing my kids to listen to it until the first flakes fly, told them it was the only way. 

Something your kids will be telling their therapist about in 20 years. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

There is a little trend at 6z Tuesday over the last three EPS runs. May just be timing changes. 

Seems like a slight trend towards faster... but at this point the differences should become negligible.

[BLI snowman]

33 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This bird has been attacking my north facing bedroom window for the last hour straight…Think he is letting me know that it’s coming…From the north! 
 

Or he is just seeing himself in the window is is telling the “other bird to get lost, this is my territory!” 

 

Desperate to break inside to escape the krazy koming kold.

Edited February 18, 2023 by BLI snowman

[Timmy]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Notice any frogs yet? I haven’t heard any so far this year, which at this point is getting pretty late. Hopefully it’s just the coolish weather and not a local population collapse.

There were a ton a few nights ago out here

[T-Town]

 

[Prairiedog]

17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Notice any frogs yet? I haven’t heard any so far this year, which at this point is getting pretty late. Hopefully it’s just the coolish weather and not a local population collapse.

Not a single croak.  This is the longest I've gone not hearing them in my favorite frog hangouts.  Odd.  Frogs are very sensitive to environmental issues.  They're like the canary in the coal mine.  Not sure what's going on. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

 

I hope they give the whole area 1 percent chance of snow. That worked out great last time for SeaTac.

[Gummy]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

 

Seattle only has two blue snowflakes, meanwhile Woodinville has 5!!! Frustrating!

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Doinko said:

 

I did a facepalm for my area but I honestly am excited for Southern Oregon on that run. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Seattle only has two blue snowflakes, meanwhile Woodinville has 5!!! Frustrating!

Wonder why Woodinville gets 5. Do they think there will be some lingering showers north of Seattle?

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Not a single croak.  This is the longest I've gone not hearing them in my favorite frog hangouts.  Odd.  Frogs are very sensitive to environmental issues.  They're like the canary in the coal mine.  Not sure what's going on. 

Guess there’s a skin fungus  (chytridiomycosis) that’s been decimating amphibian populations the last several years too.

[Prairiedog]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Guess there’s a skin fungus  (chytridiomycosis) that’s been decimating amphibian populations the last several years too.

I've heard of studies on amphibians in the high lakes in the Cascades.  Populations were declining per the research.  Can't remember the specifics.  Thought it was maybe acidity level?.  Need to go find it.  Been a while. 

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

I've heard of studies on amphibians in the high lakes in the Cascades.  Populations were declining per the research.  Can't remember the specifics.  Thought it was maybe acidity level?.  Need to go find it.  Been a while. 

Couldn’t tell last time I was up there by the alpine lakes, the little guys were all over.

[Sandy rocks]

Well I hope that last map doesn't verify, everything is to the south or the north. That would be a bummer but things can and probably will change. I don't see how the mets can be so certain.

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

I've heard of studies on amphibians in the high lakes in the Cascades.  Populations were declining per the research.  Can't remember the specifics.  Thought it was maybe acidity level?.  Need to go find it.  Been a while. 

When I was going to WSU I did some work with Jonah Pioviah-Scott’s ecology lab and they were doing some research along those lines. Trying to detect the fungus in local populations. I haven’t followed up with it in a few years though.

[snow_wizard]

Very interesting 18z GFS.  It actually reminds me of the progression from the Dec 1964 Arctic outbreak where it went into a very chilly onshore flow situation that brought a lot of lowland snow.  With a number of different flow trajectories and legit cold maritime polar air like what is being shown a lot of places could do pretty well with that.

Before that though we have some Arctic air and lowland snow to deal with. 

[Deweydog]

The frog talk reminded me of this gem. #datingmyself

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice evening for a walk around the South Falls day use area and campground. Mild day but now cooling off fast. 

[Dave]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The frog talk reminded me of this gem. #datingmyself

 

I can't believe you found that old gem. I still remember it.

Seeing how it got into the mid 50's today, I will be on the lookout for frogs tonight. I like frogs.

[Slushy Inch]

I guess north King county and Bothell will have a better chance to pick up an inch.

[snow_wizard]

37 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Not a single croak.  This is the longest I've gone not hearing them in my favorite frog hangouts.  Odd.  Frogs are very sensitive to environmental issues.  They're like the canary in the coal mine.  Not sure what's going on. 

Could be the cold nights.  I'm sure it's seasonal.

[The Cats Meow]

This will be an interesting week coming up.

Hopefully there will be some surprises.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting... because they have a very large lake at their doorstep in Seattle. 

Don’t know the reasoning.  There is a large private school on the lake here and there is a university of Washington truck and boat trailer parked there.  Maybe some kind of training weekend. 

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I guess north King county and Bothell will have a better chance to pick up an inch.

Kind of looks like most places have a good chance on that map.

[snow_wizard]

It's interesting to note I picked up about an inch and a half of snow here going into the Feb cold snap last year in spite of the fact the models showed nothing even hours before it hit.  Model snowfall projections going into these things are pretty meaningless at this range and are sometimes terrible even a day before the cold hits.

[Prairiedog]

Well, Mark has us at 36 and 38 for Thurs and Friday with lows 25 and 23.  He reassured us though that this was great for this late in the season.  True but not what I was hoping for.  He says little or no snow.  Maybe a few flurries initially then nada.