PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Well, Mark has us at 36 and 38 for Thurs and Friday with lows 25 and 23.  He reassured us though that this was great for this late in the season.  True but not what I was hoping for.  He says little or no snow.  Maybe a few flurries initially then nada. 

We're just going to have to wait and see on the max temps.  We are still going into a very cold pattern.  Max temps will depend on wind, cloud cover, and snow cover besides the very cold 850s that are quite likely to happen.

BTW...the temps he is forecasting would still be on the order of a -15 departure.  Very legit stuff.

[snow_wizard]

Just going by experience with cold snaps with -PNA heavy blocking....it usually snows.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

 

Poor Mt Vernon. 

[Slushy Inch]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of looks like most places have a good chance on that map.

Not Seattle or SeaTac. I guess it’s ok for downtown Seattle. Hard to zoom in and see where that is.

[MossMan]

Snow pile update! 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just going by experience with cold snaps with -PNA heavy blocking....it usually snows.

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Don’t know the reasoning.  There is a large private school on the lake here and there is a university of Washington truck and boat trailer parked there.  Maybe some kind of training weekend. 

I think so... I see references to UW participating in the Shawnigan Lake Regatta every May so they must be doing some kind of combined training this weekend.   That school looks beautiful!  

[umadbro]

20 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

Well, Mark has us at 36 and 38 for Thurs and Friday with lows 25 and 23.  He reassured us though that this was great for this late in the season.  True but not what I was hoping for.  He says little or no snow.  Maybe a few flurries initially then nada. 

He said the same thing ahead of the February 2014 event

[snow_wizard]

I actually think Portland has a very realistic chance of doing well going into the cold weather.  I just don't see any reason that area shouldn't score reasonably well.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, umadbro said:

He said the same thing ahead of the February 2014 event

I think it's a reasonable starting point though.  Things could easily verify colder, but there will be time to tweak it.

[JW8]

For the record, the frogs have awakened in Newcastle. They probably won't enjoy next week .

[Omegaraptor]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're just going to have to wait and see on the max temps.  We are still going into a very cold pattern.  Max temps will depend on wind, cloud cover, and snow cover besides the very cold 850s that are quite likely to happen.

BTW...the temps he is forecasting would still be on the order of a -15 departure.  Very legit stuff.

Fun fact: PDX has never seen a subfreezing high between February 17 and the end of February.

Which puts into perspective how insane the high of 29 on March 3, 1960 was.

[Prairiedog]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're just going to have to wait and see on the max temps.  We are still going into a very cold pattern.  Max temps will depend on wind, cloud cover, and snow cover besides the very cold 850s that are quite likely to happen.

BTW...the temps he is forecasting would still be on the order of a -15 departure.  Very legit stuff.

Obviously we have some days to go yet but the snow cover will indeed have a lot to do with temps.  That's the big question now.  Mark didn't name them but said 2 of the big 3 models said no snow for PDX.  We shall see. 

[ShawniganLake]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think so... I see references to UW participating in the Shawnigan Lake Regatta every May so they must be doing some kind of combined training this weekend.   That school looks beautiful!  

Yea. That place is crazy nice. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

Obviously we have some days to go yet but the snow cover will indeed have a lot to do with temps.  That's the big question now.  Mark didn't name them but said 2 of the big 3 models said no snow for PDX.  We shall see. 

All I know is I have seen the models bust way too low on snow many times with these things.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, JW8 said:

For the record, the frogs have awakened in Newcastle. They probably won't enjoy next week .

Really surprising as chilly as the past week has been.

[snow_wizard]

Beautiful turquoise sky out there right now.  Nice to see it clear at least for a while.  Could get a bit colder than expected this evening.

[JW8]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Really surprising as chilly as the past week has been.

Agreed. Just a few thus far, hasn't been a full chorus or anything. 

[Phishy Wx]

what did I miss?

 

looks like next week could still get fun for some

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Fun fact: PDX has never seen a subfreezing high between February 17 and the end of February.

Which puts into perspective how insane the high of 29 on March 3, 1960 was.

Of course if you look at the city of Portland’s entire period of record you see sub-freezing highs throughout late February and into mid March.

Edited February 18, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 49/38 day here. Partly to mostly cloudy with some sprinkles at times. Cloudy and 47 currently.

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Beautiful turquoise sky out there right now.  Nice to see it clear at least for a while.  Could get a bit colder than expected this evening.

Currently 38.1 here. 

[Omegaraptor]

23 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Of course if you look at the city of Portland’s entire period of record you see sub-freezing highs throughout late February and into mid March.

Do you think another 1887-88 or 1892-93 winter is possible in our current climate?

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Do you think another 1887-88 or 1892-93 winter is possible in our current climate?

No. Well probably more like just much less likely. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Do you think another 1887-88 or 1892-93 winter is possible in our current climate?

What if the moon was made of BBQ spare ribs. Would you eat it then?

[Doinko]

51 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I actually think Portland has a very realistic chance of doing well going into the cold weather.  I just don't see any reason that area shouldn't score reasonably well.

ICON showed a nice band of snow for PDX on the 18z. For the ICON that's really good to see

[Meatyorologist]

00z ONGOING

[Cold Snap]

Nice little cold snap we just had. Recorded 47/32, 42/29, 45/27, 49/30 days out of that with a quarter inch of snow. Just that quarter inch of snow alone is enough to make that event memorable. Honestly a cold snap with those temp spreads and some snow is more memorable than a few days around a 36/22 spread that come with no snow.

[Doinko]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like the second trough is dropping in. 

[Jbolin]

4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Are you some sort of sicko who doesn’t like cute spiders?

I didn't see nuthin' 

[Christensen87]

00z no good for snow. On to next weekend lol 

[Doinko]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

00z no good for snow. On to next weekend lol 

For WA. Looks good for Oregon, better than the 18z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gfs gets it done! 

[Doinko]

Beautiful snowstorm on this run, shows 1.5ft of snow for me

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gfs gets it done! 

Might as well call the GFS Larry the Cable guy! Because that’s what he says!! It’s part of his bit. Lol.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

00z no good for snow. On to next weekend lol 

I still get an inch. The inland shift was inevitable.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Beautiful, this run shows 1.5ft of snow for my location

Woah a bullseye over north king and south Snohomish county. Sweet!

[TacomaWx]

The models have pretty much insisted Tacoma wouldn’t get snow every event this winter so far…yet it’s managed to snow atleast some each time. Not worried about it. 

[Slushy Inch]

We’ll see what Euro has to say about this.