PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Dave]

6 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Her name is Lexi 

Your dog is also a stripper?

[kokaneekidz]

48 minutes ago, Phil said:

Of course it’s gonna happen. The GFS is ROCK SOLID.  

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10 minutes ago, Dave said:

Your dog is also a stripper?

It would be written as Lexxxi if that were the case.

Lexxxi Luxe would be proud (Godspeed if you look her up).

[kokaneekidz]

Looks like we lost Snyder

 

[HuskyMaestro]

Dark clouds around my area with some heavy drizzle. Perfect coffee sweater weather in the meantime for model riding ️ 

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Dark clouds around my area with some heavy drizzle. Perfect coffee sweater weather in the meantime for model riding ️ 

Love the drizzle. GFS shows a lot of drizzle over the next 2 weeks. 

[SnowySeeker50]

Looks like a convergence zone has set up over me. A little over 0.25 so far today.

[HuskyMaestro]

7 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Love the drizzle. GFS shows a lot of drizzle over the next 2 weeks. 

It’s Fife so that would be perfectly on par.

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What, you don't believe Eureka, CA is going to get a foot and a half of snow soon?

Why such negativity?

94.6" for me. lol

[MossMan]

28 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

Looks like we lost Snyder

 

But we gained an Andrew!! 

[Phishy Wx]

seems garden variety for E WA.  2019 was awesome, not sure we see that again but here's hoping for surprises

[Deweydog]

Not even half way through the weekend,  folks…

[MossMan]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Not even half way through the weekend,  folks…

Time is nearly standing still! This is taking forever! 

[Deweydog]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Time is nearly standing still! This is taking forever! 

I’m at the drum solo! Again!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

29 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not even half way through the weekend,  folks…

I know. Great, isn’t it?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I know. Great, isn’t it?

Can’t wait until Monday. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It would be written as Lexxxi if that were the case.

Lexxxi Luxe would be proud (Godspeed if you look her up).

XXX

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dang the GEFS was great. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It would be written as Lexxxi if that were the case.

Lexxxi Luxe would be proud (Godspeed if you look her up).

Dude I was not prepared for that. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

51 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not even half way through the weekend,  folks…

It's a 3 day weekend 

Many people will celebrate 1-44 and 46 Monday 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

It's a 3 day weekend 

If you work for the bank or the government I guess. 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If you work for the bank or the government I guess. 

Holiday for me and I don’t work for either! 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty sure there is a final warming every year.  

Yes, but the majority are static final warmings. This would be a dynamic final warming (or close to it), as was last year.

[Blizzard777]

Been a huge year for me with the white stuff! 
South Sound snow events have been numerous, Prescott Az I enjoyed a few days snow while I visited there and finally here in Tennessee we had light snow showers most the day yesterday.  
it now looks like a fly home to snow next week ….just wow! What a year! Hoping Portland really scores on this coming event though.  Good luck Ya All from Tennessee!  

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yes, but the majority are static final warmings. This would be a dynamic final warming (or close to it), as was last year.

Not having a rapidly strengthening Nina this spring might help make it a little different.  

[Phil]

GEFS really cranks the -NAO as we turn the calendar. Would help build+anchor a bonafide continental polar airmass in SW Canada.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

GEFS really cranks the -NAO as we turn the calendar. Would help build+anchor a bonafide continental polar airmass in SW Canada.

Isn’t that bonkers!

[JW8]

18z Euro must have been bad...no mentions of it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Omg wow we get absolutely nailed on this run! 

I just looked and wow the hood canal gets fuking nuked.

[umadbro]

4 minutes ago, JW8 said:

18z Euro must have been bad...no mentions of it.

It only goes out 90 hours. So Tuesday morning at the latest right now.

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not having a rapidly strengthening Nina this spring might help make it a little different.  

Possibly, but the La Niña tendency will still exist during the spring months, at least, augmented by +QBO lingering at 50mb.

If the weakening of the trades associated with the SSW/MJO activation is sufficient to trigger a bonafide downwelling KW, that would expedite the termination of the La Niña background state, and possibly bring about a full transition to El Niño mid/late year, which would have other seasonal implications.

But it could easily be a multiyear transition as was the case from 2000/01 to 2002/03, and 1955/56 to 1957/58. Or we might take the mid/late 1970s route with a transition out of the La Niña regime, but with domains outside ENSO observing the largest change (big PMM/NPO flip in 1976/77).

Either way, the IPWP will extend again sometime in the next few years, and remain extended for at least half a decade, putting an end to this potent multi-year La Niña regime.

If I had to guess, I’d say next winter is neutral ENSO, and 2024/25 is a moderate or strong El Niño, but it could easily be next winter if things change slightly within the next few months.

[JW8]

1 minute ago, umadbro said:

It only goes out 90 hours. So Tuesday morning at the latest right now.

Yeah, not super useful yet. Was just wondering how the trough was coming in compared to 12z.

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Possibly, but the La Niña tendency will still exist during the spring months, at least, augmented by +QBO lingering at 50mb.

If the weakening of the trades associated with the SSW/MJO activation is sufficient to trigger a bonafide downwelling KW, that would expedite the termination of the La Niña background state, and possibly bring about a full transition to El Niño mid/late year, which would have other seasonal implications.

But it could easily be a multiyear transition as was the case from 2000/01 to 2002/03, and 1955/56 to 1957/58. Or we might take the mid/late 1970s route with a transition out of the La Niña regime, but with domains outside ENSO observing the largest change (big PMM/NPO flip in 1976/77).

Either way, the IPWP will extend again sometime in the next few years, and remain extended for at least half a decade, putting an end to this potent multi-year La Niña regime.

If I had to guess, I’d say next winter is neutral ENSO, and 2024/25 is a moderate or strong El Niño, but it could easily be next winter if things change slightly within the next few months.

If we transitioned to +ENSO more rapidly this year, could we expedite the whole ENSO warm phase and get it over with sooner?

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like winter is just getting started.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, umadbro said:

It only goes out 90 hours. So Tuesday morning at the latest right now.

And if it’s great for PDX no one on here will mention it!

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, umadbro said:

It only goes out 90 hours. So Tuesday morning at the latest right now.

90 hours is actually Wednesday morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I just looked and wow the hood canal gets fuking nuked.

The 18z GEFS is insane. If that happened in January people would be having involuntary bowel movements. 

Edited February 19, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

90 hours is actually Wednesday morning.

Fantastic about 3” here. With a lot more on the way. Very encouraging for Oregon folx. 

[Deweydog]

Down to 45 at PDX.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

If we transitioned to +ENSO more rapidly this year, could we expedite the whole ENSO warm phase and get it over with sooner?

If we’re talking about ENSO in isolation, then yes. Particularly if it’s a clean transition/stronger event.

But the bigger shift will be the intradecadal extension of the equatorial IPWP, which is due soon and will persist for 5+ years. It’s largely a function of solar forcing on the mass circulation/top of hadley/z-cells, perturbing the indo-pacific uplift and inverting the hadley/walker intensity ratio.

I projected this strong multiyear La Niña using the IPWP vacillation cycle as well. It’s been quasi-stable for the last several decades and appears to be responsible for the drinking-bird function of ENSO tendency.