PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... where precip is shown at end of run.

[TT-SEA]

Nina has been so friendly.   Hottest summer ever for 3 years in a row.  I think we should wish away the coming Nino and try to get back to more Ninas.  Working out great.  

[Phil]

Here is a visual of what I’m referring to. Lags the solar cycle by a few years due to the thermodynamic inertia of the system state, but it’s visible in the equatorial SSTA hovmoller, without any overlayed filtering.

If previous lags hold, it would occur in 2024.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... where precip is shown at end of run.

Nice deformation over the mid valley. Will probably rotate north and dissipate just south of PDX. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Here is a visual of what I’m referring to. Lags the solar cycle by a few years due to the thermodynamic inertia of the system state, but it’s visible in the equatorial SSTA hovmoller, without any overlayed filtering.

If previous lags hold, it would occur in 2024.

Updated version (new climo period). Can see the same pattern emerging yet again.

[MossMan]

Turned into a lovely evening! 
Currently 36 degrees. 
Happy Holiday’s! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

Turned into a lovely evening! 
Currently 36 degrees. 
Happy Holiday’s! 

Holiday blessings 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Turned into a lovely evening! 
Currently 36 degrees. 
Happy Holiday’s! 

We are in Bellingham... it was clear here this evening when we arrived.   Sky got bright right around your area on the way up.   

41 here per my parents automated thermometer.    Also 41 at BLI.

45 in North Bend and looks like it's still raining per the radar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We are in Bellingham... it was clear here this evening when we arrived.   Sky got bright right around your area on the way up.   

41 here per my parents automated thermometer.    Also 41 at BLI.

45 in North Bend and looks like it's still raining per the radar.

I swear it’s hardly rained this winter. My signature isn’t up to date, but I bet we are only around 25-30” on the water year if I added it up. Way way behind. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I swear it’s hardly rained this winter. My signature isn’t up to date, but I bet we are only around 25-30” on the water year if I added it up. Way way behind. 

It definitely hasn't seemed wet.

[Phil]

New EPS is definitely on team Tim/niño in the tropics. Check out those westerly wind anomalies over the WPAC.  

It’s only a snapshot in time but there doesn’t seem to be much of a low frequency/ENSO signal there anymore if this is anywhere close to accurate (those easterlies over the Indian Ocean represent full destructive interference with a La Niña circulation as well).

[MossMan]

I’m at 1.94” for the month, 6.70” for 2023. I would have to go back and look at my water year but I’m too lazy at the moment. 

[Prairiedog]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

My cat was pretty entertaining on Wednesday.   He was so happy to escape out the front door and then touched the snow and stopped and stared at his feet for like a minute and then started crying for me to pick him up.  Apparently he has the same opinion as me about snow after Valentines Day.   

 

My chickens refuse to come out of their coup when it snows.  They're all screaming WHITE LAVA!

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

My chickens refuse to come out of their coup when it snows.  They're all screaming WHITE LAVA!

Watch your back…

[Doinko]

ICON still looks good

 

[SimplySmoothWX]

And here, we, go...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

ICON still looks good

 

Rock solid. 

[Phil]

Downward propagation of the SSW being projected on a growing quantity of guidance now.

I don’t think winter is anywhere near done across the WHEM middle latitudes.

[Weiner Warrior]

00z running slightly cooler so far

[Anti Marine Layer]

47 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Turned into a lovely evening! 
Currently 36 degrees. 
Happy Holiday’s! 

Merry President's Day

 

[snow_wizard]

I can't seem to find a single significant late Feb cold snap that didn't have at least a couple of inches of snow for most places.  That is very significant in my book.  It's going to find a way to snow for the Puget Sound region.  Even last year we had that total 11th hour surprise come out of nowhere that laid down some decent snowfall.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Downward propagation of the SSW being projected on a growing quantity of guidance now.

I don’t think winter is anywhere near done across the WHEM middle latitudes.

I think this is going to be a great run of cold weather for the NW.  Hihgly possible we see another Arctic intrusion in early March.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I can't seem to find a single significant late Feb cold snap that didn't have at least a couple of inches of snow for most places.  That is very significant in my book.  It's going to find a way to snow for the Puget Sound region.  Even last year we had that total 11th hour surprise come out of nowhere that laid down some decent snowfall.

Last February was significant. I don’t think most places had snow with it. Though I did, and I know you did too. 

[Doinko]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Rock solid. 

Couple of inches for PDX. Euro and GFS show it too

[MossMan]

The 13” I got on this day 5yrs ago was completely unforecasted until a few hours beforehand, and even at that I wasn’t supposed to get that much. And of course 2011 I was supposed to get maybe an inch at the most…Got about 20”. Februaries are magic and this one will be no different. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

If we transitioned to +ENSO more rapidly this year, could we expedite the whole ENSO warm phase and get it over with sooner?

Past history says a Nino is extremely unlikely this year with indices still being so firmly in Nina territory this deep into the year.  Neutral winters are often great for us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Couple of inches for PDX. Euro and GFS show it too

Starting to look like the foothills out this way are gonna get pounded. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last February was significant. I don’t think most places had snow with it. Though I did, and I know you did too. 

My old cheap carports got nuked! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Past history says a Nino is extremely unlikely this year with indices still being so firmly in Nina territory this deep into the year.  Neutral winters are often great for us.

I’m non-binary enso fluid. We can do well with both. And neutral! 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The 13” I got on this day 5yrs ago was completely unforecasted until a few hours beforehand, and even at that I wasn’t supposed to get that much. And of course 2011 I was supposed to get maybe an inch at the most…Got about 20”. Februaries are magic and this one will be no different. 

Just mystifies why people put so much stock in models snow forecasts more than a couple of days before the event.  As you say they often biff it less than a day out.

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Starting to look like the foothills out this way are gonna get pounded. 

This could be the real deal Andrew. 

[Doinko]

00z looks great

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My old cheap carports got nuked! 

Nice. We got a couple inches. There was snow on the ground when we left for the hospital to have Mr Silas. Quite a week, my wife was in Eugene with her dad who just had a heart attack, came back to give birth and then we all test positive  for COVID! Kind of a blur, but I’ll never forget it either. 

Edited February 19, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m non-binary enso fluid. We can do well with both. And neutral! 

Nino is the worst of the three though.  Obvious there a few notable exceptions.  Neutral is usually pretty fun.

[Slushy Inch]

Snowier run for WW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Nino is the worst of the three though.  Obvious there a few notable exceptions.  Neutral is usually pretty fun.

2018-19 was pretty great though. 

[SunAndSnow]

How much longer should I wait to be excited about significant PDX metro snow? Monday?

[Doinko]

Widespread 1-4" in the Willamette Valley

[Requiem]

Conflicting reports! 

 

EDIT: REPORTS ARE GOOD

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Turned into a lovely evening! 
Currently 36 degrees. 
Happy Holiday’s! 

Pretty unusual to clear out so fast after a gunk fest like today.