PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Phishy Wx]

I think we just had a wind shift here.  Squall got hung up though

[MossMan]

Another update from my house…Still hailing like crazy, temp down to 34. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[MillCreekMike]

Pretty intense hail near Paine Field right now. Looks like a pretty hefty band of precip moving inland. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, their warnings/advisories basically match that exactly. Not sure why they aren't even considering the usually better models showing more

Both the Euro and the GFS agree you get significantly more, don’t they?

If so, wouldn’t worry. When both those two models agree about something, my experience is that it almost always happens.

[Phishy Wx]

looks like Mt Spokane broke up our squall and its pivoting to the west of Spokane county lol.  might get skunked on this one. oof

   

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see the GFS on board for the weekend snow now.  Looks like a good shot at a widespread 2+ inches.  In the short term the ECMWF is trying to catch some magic for King County tomorrow morning.  Nice little bullseye of snow showed up on the 12z and got bigger on the 18z.  Very close to here!

[Cold Snap]

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, their warnings/advisories basically match that exactly. Not sure why they aren't even considering the usually better models showing more

It kind of surprises me they are basically ignoring the ECMWF with how accurate it normally is with PNW snow events

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Both the Euro and the GFS agree you get significantly more, don’t they?

If so, wouldn’t worry. When both those two models agree about something, my experience is that it almost always happens.

Yeah, the Euro shows around 3" and the GFS shows more than 8". The usually reliable GRAF model is also in the 5-6" range, and the RGEM shows 3-4"

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Doinko said:

Yeah, the Euro shows around 3" and the GFS shows more than 8". The usually reliable GRAF model is also in the 5-6" range, and the RGEM shows 3-4"

In that case, 3–6" sounds like a good guess for what you get. NWS is definitely dropping the ball by failing to get a warning out.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Rob-Cast

2/21/23 3:37 PM

Okay. I've been pouring over the latest data, guidance, and model soundings. Essentially a slice of the atmosphere overhead analyzing the temperature column, dewpoints, and winds. Based on the expected position and track of the area of low pressure here is my officially official forecast. I have narrowed down the area where the snow band may set up. This is where the heaviest snowfall totals will occur. I may fine tune this at a later date.

You had to know this was coming. It's me. It's me, Rob. C'MON!!!!

2-39"

I love it! 

In preparation, everyone in this slice should: 

[snow_wizard]

46 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Dew point in Squamish is now -5°C and falling.

Wind has shifted in Agassiz and temps and dew points are now starting to tumble there.

It’s coming, and sooner than modelled.

The ones that actually work out are often faster than expected.

[Phishy Wx]

Front just passed, Dry

Squall line pivoted West around the northside of Mt Spokane into Northern Spokane county.  Unless something changes going to get skunked on this one in east central Spokane County, lol

[Phishy Wx]

and it snowed all freakin day until about an hour ago but was too warm at the surface to accumulate..  oof

[Perturbed Member]

15 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, their warnings/advisories basically match that exactly. Not sure why they aren't even considering the usually better models showing more

All models are onboard, especially for the west and south metro. Most importantly the Euro, GFS, GRAF, GEM and UKMET are all in pretty good agreement. 

It is only the NAM and NBM that are complete outliers relative to all those other models. 

[Perturbed Member]

Just keeping the NWS PDX forecast here so we'll be able to evaluate it tomorrow 

[Doinko]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

All models are onboard, especially for the west and south metro. Most importantly the Euro, GFS, GRAF, GEM and UKMET are all in pretty good agreement. 

It is only the NAM and NBM that are complete outliers relative to all those other models. 

I think it's possible we get 3-5" if we're lucky. Would like the cutoff to get a bit farther away but looks good so far. Nice to see an event that will favor this part of the Metro area more, haven't seen much of that maybe except 2/25/19 since 2016/2017

[MillCreekMike]

It’s trying so hard to turn to snow but just not getting there. Had about 90% wet snow near Everett Mall Way on the way home but now I’m home and it’s mostly rain. The sadness of not having elevation on your side lol

[fubario]

2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Ummm

South Sound ....

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is certainty showing some snow for King County tonight and early tomorrow morning.  18z is the best run yet for that.  We shall see.

[Mid Valley Duck]

My thoughts. 

[Gummy]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is certainty showing some snow for King County tonight and early tomorrow morning.  18z is the best run yet for that.  We shall see.

Picking up on the arctic front like the WRF did maybe.

[BLI snowman]

Dallas, OR will probably be a big winner with this. Bet they see 12"+.

[fubario]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Tim wins!

oh the irony lol

[snow_wizard]

GEFS is gradually getting colder for early March.  850s are now shown to be persistently in the -6 to -7 range.

[BLI snowman]

23 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

In that case, 3–6" sounds like a good guess for what you get. NWS is definitely dropping the ball by failing to get a warning out.

Par for the course.

I literally can't remember any high impact snow events that they did all that well with. Maybe 12/20/2008? But then they dropped the ball on the back bent occlusion stuff that swung through right after that.

[runninthruda206]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is certainty showing some snow for King County tonight and early tomorrow morning.  18z is the best run yet for that.  We shall see.

like south king county or metro?

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Picking up on the arctic front like the WRF did maybe.

There's a lot going on that could produce surprise snowfall.  Convergence / Arctic front tonight and then return flow moisture tomorrow morning.

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Dallas, OR will probably be a big winner with this. Bet they see 12"+.

We'll need some pictures from @Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Winter wonderland all the way to the valley floor out here.

And with a sw wind?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

like south king county or metro?

It shows a bullseye around Renton of all places.  Could be pretty much anywhere though.

[bainbridgekid]

It’s snowing big wet flakes here and temp is down to  34.5 degrees. Started as 40 degree groupel about half an hour ago.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It shows a bullseye around Renton of all places.  Could be pretty much anywhere though.

Kinda looked more Newcastle to me in 18z euro but

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

It’s snowing big wet flakes here and temp is down to  34.5 degrees. Started as 40 degree groupel about half an hour ago.

Rich marriot was in the area when it was 40 degrees.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the possible weekend snow the models have gotten pretty decent with it today.  Pretty exciting.

[Phishy Wx]

Squalls finally arrived 27 with a WC of 15

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It’s snowing big wet flakes here and temp is down to  34.5 degrees. Started as 40 degree groupel about half an hour ago.

I’ve heard reports of this. Cheers to the troll who posted a temp map with mid40s in B.C.

[Perturbed Member]

14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Dallas, OR will probably be a big winner with this. Bet they see 12"+.

What are your thoughts on how tomorrow unfolds?

 

[OysterPrintout]

That's a pretty significant improvement in the believable timeframe for snow on the 18z euro vs the 12z. Maybe the GRAF is onto something. 

[Perturbed Member]

Team UKMET and GFS vs Team GEM and ECMWF for this weekend.

 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

That's a pretty significant improvement in the believable timeframe for snow on the 18z euro vs the 12z. Maybe the GRAF is onto something. 

Most of the snow at PDX falls below 30 degrees too on this run

[WildrootParable]

Oh my goodness, I'm tuning in late to the party and I've completely missed the chatter about tonight! Sorry for the weenie question, but chances of impact on Gorst area, anyone? 

[OysterPrintout]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Most of the snow at PDX falls below 30 degrees too on this run

Decently below 30, which is good cause Euro probably running too cold.

[TT-SEA]

Its currently 43 at BLI and snowing at PAE.    Interesting.

[Perturbed Member]

5 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

That's a pretty significant improvement in the believable timeframe for snow on the 18z euro vs the 12z. Maybe the GRAF is onto something. 

The GRAF isn't known for handing out snow like candy unlike the GFS so that makes it a bit more compelling. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Its currently 43 at BLI and snowing at PAE.    Interesting.

Wow the miracle of convection.

[OysterPrintout]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

The GRAF isn't known for handing out snow like candy unlike the GFS so that makes it a bit more compelling. 

yeah it was a stingy one on valentines day and nailed it for PDX

[umadbro]

[MossMan]

Currently 33.9 degrees and mostly cloudy. Roads were a bit greasy along with my deck. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its currently 43 at BLI and snowing at PAE.    Interesting.

Going to be interesting radar tonight, looks like some moisture might sneak up over the cascades into the sound as well if you watch the sat loop. Some of our cold is coming from the top down also not just the fraser.