PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SouthHillFrosty]

[AbbyJr]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tell that to 1968/69 and 2018/19. These relationships can and do change over time.

What do you think it would take to get a 1968/69 repeat in the PNW?

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

How problematic does climo become in late March? Because that’s another window that could be interesting.

Piece of cake! Well early to mid March anyway! 

Edited February 19, 2023 by MossMan

[TigerWoodsLibido]

9 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

What do you think it would take to get a 1968/69 repeat in the PNW?

A 1 in 69 dice roll.

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Eureka!

yeah no kidding d-dog this map is wack and this is a really cool way of pointing out just how wack it is and then add an exclamation point and I see you got bored with Crescent City and Cannon beach  and yeah we are all kind of ignoramus in comparison to you but it’s cool that you’ll  still post in our presence please keep telling us how it is and thank you

[Anti Marine Layer]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We’ve never had a dog who can make it to the Euro. I’ll never understand a species that can’t manage to obsess over the weather 6-660 hours out.

The dog would make it if there was a thunderstorm outside.

[Jakewestsalem]

Just bought a new Subaru Forester today.

 

It's over....

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, DecimalCat said:

yeah no kidding d-dog this map is wack and this is a really cool way of pointing out just how wack it is and then add an exclamation point and I see you got bored with Crescent City and Cannon beach  and yeah we are all kind of ignoramus in comparison to you but it’s cool that you’ll  still post in our presence please keep telling us how it is and thank you

Uh, the formula requires you include a question. Noob…

[Slushy Inch]

A decent bit colder in BC later on in the GEFS. 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

The dog would make it if there was a thunderstorm outside.

Dewey slept through thunder and fireworks.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

The dog would make it if there was a thunderstorm outside.

Not him, the picture would be exactly the same as noise doesn’t phase him at all. However this one would be peeing herself and would be trying to dig out a bomb shelter because she would be convinced that we are  all going to die! 

[snow_wizard]

Wednesday looks like a pretty incredible day with brisk north winds and afternoon temps in the low 30s for the Seattle area.  We'll just have to wait and see if there is any snow on the ground to enjoy that day or not.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

A decent but colder in BC later on in the GEFS. 

The developing -NAO during week 2 suggests we could get another punch of Arctic air in early March.  Getting two shots after Feb 20 would be pretty amazing.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The developing -NAO during week 2 suggests we could get another punch of Arctic air in early March.  Getting two shots after Feb 20 would be pretty amazing.

2006???

[snow_wizard]

One piece of very good news on the GFS is the air mass is much colder than previous runs for the Friday night snow in the Puget Sound area.  Looks like any precip will fall as rather dry snow.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

2006???

I think we had just one shot on that.

[snow_wizard]

36 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

What do you think it would take to get a 1968/69 repeat in the PNW?

Tanked NAO and tanked PNA.

[SouthHillFrosty]

37 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

What do you think it would take to get a 1968/69 repeat in the PNW?

Lots of drugs 

[snow_wizard]

GEFS bottoms out at -13.5 (0.5 lower than the 18z) with the cold snap and has a second dip down to -6.6 around the 27th showing up now.  Good stuff coming up.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we had just one shot on that.

The period between now and the big March trough was pretty Andrewrific-adjacent. GOA ridging was just a bit displaced to the west.

[MWG]

Odin still not impressed.  

[Deweydog]

Just now, MWG said:

Odin still not impressed.  

That face is priceless!!

[snow_wizard]

Most of the day Saturday is much colder on the 0z GFS than previous runs.  Nice to see the warmup delayed a good 12 hours on this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MWG said:

Odin still not impressed.  

That’s also the name of the kid who saved my daughter from a bully at school the other day. I heard songs about the brave and glorious Odin for a week. 

[KingstonWX]

45 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How I feel watching the GFS all winter long. 

[MWG]

Just now, Deweydog said:

That face is priceless!!

He always looks like this! Like an old grumpy man 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows the south wind going all day and into the evening on Tuesday in the Seattle area... highs in the mid 40s that day.     Snow is going to have to happen late Tuesday night or Wednesday if its going to happen.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The period between now and the big March trough was pretty Andrewrific-adjacent. GOA ridging was just a bit displaced to the west.

Good point.  What Andrew likes and what I like don't always correspond.  I'm in agreement with him about week two though.  Good potential for many of us there.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That’s also the name of the kid who saved my daughter from a bully at school the other day. I heard songs about the brave and glorious Odin for a week. 

That's awesome!

[Jakewestsalem]

3 minutes ago, MWG said:

Odin still not impressed.  

Should have been named Durant

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The goofy gfs snow maps have verified over here in my neck of the woods several times this winter. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

How I feel watching the GFS all winter long. 

Not really.  I'm pretty happy with the winter so far.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through early Wednesday morning and temps at 4 a.m. on Wednesday.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF shows the south wind going all day and into the evening on Tuesday in the Seattle area... highs in the mid 40s that day.     Snow is going to have to happen late Tuesday night or Wednesday if its going to happen.

It has patches of snow that would just be a rain snow mix if anything.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF shows the south wind going all day and into the evening on Tuesday in the Seattle area... highs in the mid 40s that day.     Snow is going to have to happen late Tuesday night or Wednesday if its going to happen.

The wind shift almost always brings snow.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Jakewestsalem said:

Should have been named Durant

I don’t see him being the d*ck pic type.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

It has patches of snow that we just be a rain snow mix if anything.

Models are terrible with snowfall going into these.  I feel like I'm talking to myself when I say that though.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The wind shift almost always brings snow.

The wind is still from the SE on Wednesday morning.

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The goofy gfs snow maps have verified over here in my neck of the woods several times this winter. 

Same here. It’s outperformed all other models for snow 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Models are terrible with snowfall going into these.  I feel like I'm talking to myself when I say that though.

That was in reference to Tuesday and its accurate.   The cold air is not here on Tuesday.