PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Compared to previous expectations though.

Let's just wait and see what happens.  This is still an impressive cold shot coming.

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Doesn't always happen though.   This event starts in about 48 hours.

The December 20th event was a rapidly forming low that raced eastward.   Much more explosive.

Roughly the same timeframe out as we are now…I was in the grey! 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's just puzzling that people are taking model details on snowfall so literally at this point.  This week is going to be cold and there will be lowland snow.  I'm happy about that.

Its just about Sunday now and we are talking about an event starting Tuesday.    Its not like this is a week away.    I think 2-3 days out is when we can start getting a good idea about snowfall.     

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Not going to be much of an overrunning event with an airmass that pathetic.

10 degrees below average for a high is nothing to laugh at.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Any similarities to past events with this one?

Maybe kinda 12/14/08? That one had a lot more frontogenic properties though with the big influx of mid level dry/cold. Temps with this would be much more borderline, but could have more moisture to work with. 

[snow_wizard]

I predict that two weeks from now people are going to feel pretty stupid for being such weenies at this point.  Flat out cold two weeks coming.  850s are still way below normal at the very end of the run.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Roughly the same timeframe out as we are now…I was in the grey! 

If we have a low bombing off the WA coast that we don't see it and its racing eastward across western WA then we could definitely have a repeat.     That situation was a modeling nightmare with that bombing low.   This is much less volatile.

[Phil]

40 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Tanked NAO and tanked PNA.

Yep. That was a special pattern.

-NAO/-PNA/-EPO “ridge bridge” with the TPV itself forced down into the PNW. Rarified air.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Snow Saturday morning on the ECMWF as well.  Nothing better than Saturday morning snowfall.

Literally?

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Any similarities to past events with this one?

Some 1/26/1956 vibes on the Euro.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its just about Sunday now and we are talking about an event starting Tuesday.    Its not like this is a week away.    I think 2-3 days out is when we can start getting a good idea about snowfall.     

I'll never forget the 11th hour surprise just last year in late February.  As I say it almost always finds a way to snow with late season cold events.  I'm liking the looks of Saturday morning as well.

[TT-SEA]

Here is a cool map... the ECMWF still shows snow on the ground on Sunday in the Portland area.    That would be at least 4 days with snow on the ground.    Very nice.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll never forget the 11th hour surprise just last year in late February.  As I say it almost always finds a way to snow with late season cold events.  I'm liking the looks of Saturday morning as well.

Something could definitely happen late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.    Previous runs have shown that as well.   

Personally... I am not too interested in Saturday morning since there will be a roaring SW wind and temps in the 40s by afternoon.    But I know that would be fun for those who just want to see it snowing. 

[snow_wizard]

It's pretty noteworthy the ECMWF and GFS are both much colder at the mid levels Friday night / Saturday than the 12z runs.  The cold might get extended even more on future runs.

[WeatherGeek2022]

bring on routine disappointment

[TT-SEA]

I sense a sad Randy... don't like that.    

So I am going with the GFS for Randy and the ECMWF for Portland.    Could happen! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, DecimalCat said:

Insert MOSSMANN.

Insert nobody has control over what will happen. Nature could care less..

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Insert nobody has control over what will happen. Nature could care less..

My high school english teacher called it cosmic indifference.    The universe has no concern for humans or our feelings about anything.

[HuskyMaestro]

The 0-0.5" snowhole centered over the South Sound has been persistent on a lot of runs. Other than some 1-2" of sporadic snow IMBY, winter here overall has been cold yet run of the mill and nothing eye popping yet. 

Hope Oregon gets slammed with the pepto pink and then maybe Tacoma gets snowed in next weekend but who knows. 

 

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Insert nobody has control over what will happen. Nature could care less..

Yes, love the detached perspective. A good poem by Stephen Crane:

A man said to the universe:
“Sir, I exist!”
“However,” replied the universe,
“The fact has not created in me
A sense of obligation.”

[TT-SEA]

Can't discount the ICON either... it showed something similar with snow for Randy and Portland.     Chances are very good there will be snow in parts of the Puget Sound area despite the ECMWF.     And even the ECMWF showed it on most runs up until the 00Z run tonight.    

That being said... I am not really expecting much for my area.    

[snow_wizard]

The forum experience for me tonight was about like being wrapped in a 50 pound wet blanket.  Really a bummer when we still have good stuff coming.

[HuskyMaestro]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My high school english teacher called it cosmic indifference.    The universe has no concern for humans or our feelings about anything.

Cosmicism and cosmic horror are some of my favorite genres to read about. How not only does the universe not "care" about humans but the entirety of humanity's existence and history being so insignificant to the universe, the fear itself stems from the incomprehensive cosmic void. You had a great English teacher. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The forum experience for me tonight was about like being wrapped in a 50 pound wet blanket.  Really a bummer when we still have good stuff coming.

My wife loves her weighted blanket. Christmas score!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The forum experience for me tonight was about like being wrapped in a 50 pound wet blanket.  Really a bummer when we still have good stuff coming.

I’m on board. 

[Cold Snap]

Great to see the Portland area might actually get some meaningful snow next week! I don’t really care that much if the snow mostly hits Oregon next week anyways since I’ll be gone and I’ve gotten a decent amount of snow this winter already. Save the Washington action for week 2!

[Doinko]

 

[Requiem]

I am... surprised and mildly excited. Nice to see that feature on most every model.

[snow_wizard]

The end of the EPS looks like it's about to go Arctic again.  Ridge bridge forming.

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Could be an historic event for the CA Coast.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty damn insane!

[snow_wizard]

I sure hope most people will be less gloomy in the morning.  

[WeatherGeek2022]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I sure hope most people will be less gloomy in the morning.  

intense bust territory vibes

 

 

maybe time to sleep it off

[JW8]

Good luck to our Portlandians, though it does look like precip totals were an outlier again. Seems to be a trend on the OP, so maybe it's more likely? Who knows.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

intense bust territory vibes

 

 

maybe time to sleep it off

And it's not even a bust.  That's what kind of irritates me.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

And it's not even a bust.  That's what kind of irritates me.

Wouldn’t worry too much about what this season’s 14 year old sh*t poster has to say.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 51/39 day here. Drizzly in the morning then partly to mostly cloudy and milder. Down to 37 with some clearing this evening.

[Perturbed Member]

A definite shift in the models tonight towards more snow down in OR across all models. The stingy ICON shows a few inches in PDX which is pretty unusual. 

Even the weather.com model picked up on the shift. It had been showing just flurries or rain/snow mix in PDX until tonight but now it shows 1-3 inches of snow. 

Nice to see but still a long time to go before Wednesday and tons of time for changes. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Another snowy run for PDX! Oh, and the EPS was significantly colder Gorge/Cascades east. 850s around -19c The Dalles!

[SpaceRace22]

Been living vicariously through you guys, and I noticed that the last 24 hours of Euro Ensembles are an excellent example of a positive trend for PDX (I've noticed this place tends play a little fast and loose with the T word, but I mean an actual trend )

Here's how many members from each of the last 24 hours of model runs showed ≥2" of snow within any 24 hour period before Friday 2/24:

Last night's 00z: 2 members

06z: 2 members

12z: 8 members

18z: 15 members

Tonight's 00z: 19 members (with 1 member over 6" for the first time!)

2 -> 2-> 8 -> 15 -> 19 is about as trendy as it gets! The long range is also trending snowier for PDX, but it's quite a bit more uncertain than the Wed/Thurs now.