PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[thickhog]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

I wish someone would nail me

The only thing standing between you and your dreams are your standards.

[Cold Snap]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I am ready to eat crow on this one, but I'm exceedingly bullish on this. Put it on the record. Sitting in my bedroom 200 miles away I am vicariously excited. This is the real deal. Yeah, the real deal real deal. And all who live in the area, or just like to see extreme weather events play out in real time, should be paying close attention to radar and satellite over the following 36 hours.

I’m excited for Portland as well! This definitely should at least be a poor man’s 1/10/17. Though I have the feeling it won’t be a poor man’s version of it.

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Poor Olympia.

 

[Doinko]

lol the WRF


This was the WRF on 1/10/17

[TacomaWx]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Poor Olympia.

 

Nobody’s had it worse than Olympia this year. Especially once western OR gets the goods. They were either a little too south or tonight, too far north. We will see though… 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

lol the WRF


This was the WRF on 1/10/17

This model needs help! It’s the spoiled child of Cliff Mass that can do no wrong.

[Doinko]

Wonder how cold temps will be Thursday/Friday morning if we get signficant snow cover. Maybe we can manage a subfreezing high if precip/clouds last a bit longer than expected and then some very cold lows once it clears out.

[Weiner Warrior]

I'm still not all in. Still thinking 1 to 2 inches. 

[OysterPrintout]

GRAF hacks the precip in half. In GRAF we no longer trust! Also has the snow* basically done by 5pm tomorrow. Weird!

[Doinko]

WWA for the inland empire...

[SunAndSnow]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ICON... very nice for the Portland area!    Particularly the areas on the south and west side of town.

I’m in the purple. Should I let myself be excited yet?

[Meatyorologist]

Back to the Puget Sound, today was a wonderful day for skygazing off the top floor. Working in an Amazon building has its perks. Driving home today around 7pm, there was a burst of heavy rain/snow mix at sea level in the Interbay neighborhood within the CZ.

Most models, including (especially) the Euro, are insistent on some wraparound snowfall in the area later tonight. Given how saturated this airmass is, any lift will cause precipitation.

Also @RentonHill dawg there is no way you work more than like two blocks away from me. Looking at your posts earlier I recognized that vantage point like the palm of my hand. Westlake right?

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

GRAF hacks the precip in half. In GRAF we no longer trust! Also has the snow* basically done by 5pm tomorrow. Weird!

It actually increased snow on this side of the metro area to 7-8"+. I doubt it'll be that uneven though

[Gradient Keeper]

UKMET also further north and buries PDX metro!

[Requiem]

18Z EURO was encouraging but we'll see what the 00Z says. I place a lot of trust in that model...

[Weiner Warrior]

Just over here wondering what has a higher probability...they finally find treasure on Oak Island or the GFS pepto map for seattle verifies.

[Doinko]

Wow

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

lol the WRF


This was the WRF on 1/10/17

Literal garbage doodoo trash

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SunAndSnow said:

I’m in the purple. Should I let myself be excited yet?

I think so... all signs point to something significant down there.

[Perturbed Member]

15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm just astonished at how anemic these mesoscale models are for the PDX area. This is a textbook setup for an overperformer on steroids. Someone not an hour ago brought up 1/10/2017 as an analog. That is fair and accurate.

Us PDX lowlander plebs have spoken of the prophecy for years now, the second coming of the holy 1/10/2017. 

This seriously has a very similar vibe to it though. 

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

WWA for the inland empire...

Check out this WSW for Auburn... California. 

 

[Slushy Inch]

In Salt Lake City with heavy snow. Flight to SEA boards in 10 mins. Still on time some how.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Us PDX lowlander plebs have spoken of the prophecy for years now, the second coming of the holy 1/10/2017. 

This seriously has a very similar vibe to it though. 

Not only a similar vibe, but a very similar physical configuration of the atmosphere.

[OysterPrintout]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

It actually increased snow on this side of the metro area to 7-8"+. I doubt it'll be that uneven though

pretty hard to tell what's actually going on outside of PDX with that model without seeing the raw data.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Us PDX lowlander plebs have spoken of the prophecy for years now, the second coming of the holy 1/10/2017. 

This seriously has a very similar vibe to it though. 

Would be one hell of a way to break the streak of suckage south of OLM. Hopefully snow coverage across the area ends up being more widespread than shown on some of the models. 

[Gummy]

NWS is NOT on board with the idea of accumulating snow this weekend.

[Perturbed Member]

UKMET

[Kolk1604]

Guys I think we need something like this when we're about to get hammered. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow

Really sucks for folks west of I 5 south f wilsonville. Would be a real bummer. @Jakewestsalem

@Mid Valley Duck

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

UKMET

Looks like ocean effect snow for PDX to me. Garbage to the north and south. 

[HuskyMaestro]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

UKMET

Poor Salem getting the Fife/Puyallup treatment

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If I lived in Salem I’d be moving to

iowa. Nowhere inland and north of Red Bluff has been hosed more since January 7, 2017.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS 850s touch colder -20c The Dalles. LEGIT blast.

[Slushy Inch]

[TacomaWx]

Down to 38 here…looks like some showers are still around. Not expecting anything but hopefully when I wake up at 5am the ground is white. I’m sure I’ll end up doing the old fashioned streetlamp check atleast once or twice though still

[RentonHill]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Back to the Puget Sound, today was a wonderful day for skygazing off the top floor. Working in an Amazon building has its perks. Driving home today around 7pm, there was a burst of heavy rain/snow mix at sea level in the Interbay neighborhood within the CZ.

Most models, including (especially) the Euro, are insistent on some wraparound snowfall in the area later tonight. Given how saturated this airmass is, any lift will cause precipitation.

Also @RentonHill dawg there is no way you work more than like two blocks away from me. Looking at your posts earlier I recognized that vantage point like the palm of my hand. Westlake right?

I’m at fifth and marion…so close

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I would expect a deicing delay but I would also expect to take off. SLC can handle snow.

[SpaceRace22]

If the Euro shows more than 2" at PDX, I'm booking my flight for first thing in the morning, deadass.

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not only a similar vibe, but a very similar physical configuration of the atmosphere.

Would be pretty incredible to see something similar at all besides the fact that it is late February

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My wife just declared this whole thing a bust.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I would expect a deicing delay but I would also expect to take off. SLC can handle snow.

That’s what I thought. PDX or SEA would be shutdown.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I’m at fifth and marion…so close

6th/Lenora

[LowerGarfield]

Had about .10 from 3pm-5:30pm when I checked and prepared the board for overnight. We had a good cell come through around 7 or so, it was enough to bring the snowplow out on the hwy out front. The shoulder lane was covered in snow as was a good portion of the sidewalk, but shortly after the plow came through, the snow stopped and melted on the shoulder and hanging in there on the walk. Have a nice layer on the grass, but will wait to measure again til tomorrow morning, I'm about 33F and a half.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My wife just declared this whole thing a bust.

My wife is mad at me for the bust up here. I told her last week that we would have a big snow Tuesday night/Wednesday morning…I was WAY off and she is not letting me forget. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My wife is mad at me for the bust up here. I told her last week that we would have a big snow Tuesday night/Wednesday morning…I was WAY off and she is not letting me forget. 

So far this has been a non event 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow

Another great run! Similar to what the 00z RGEM/GEM showed with a strong deformation band signal over PDX Metro. I’m getting 1/10/17 vibes right now where the forecast was up to a few inches but everything came together perfectly and we got hammered.

[Christensen87]

CFS looks great for prolonged cold through mid March. 

[Deweydog]

23 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

UKMET

[selkirks]

30 minutes ago, Doinko said:

WWA for the inland empire...

Not just that––Mt. Waterman could end up getting 5-6 feet!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2-4 inches for the metro Area of Portland looks like a good forecast if you average everything out.