PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Prairiedog]

1 hour ago, Requiem said:

Don't wanna say much yet but I could see 2-4 inches for part of the metro. 

You're sitting better than most of us with your elevation.  Us lowlanders represent the bigger part of the metro, even me out towards Estacada, I'm just over 300'.  Are you thinking 2-4 at your elevation or us poor folk? Equity might work here, but only here.  LOL

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We really got the shaft on that one.  Just a little bit of snow here.  That was still a decent cold winter here though.

Sometimes I think the mid valley is still paying for all the snow we got that winter. 32” at Salem, which is one of their snowiest ever. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

wow. This would be a significant event! 

Going to be very interesting, historically a 995 to 1000mb low sliding down the coast and being 995 around Astoria the Puget Sound would have a major event as would Portland.  Fwiw I believe models are to stingy with snowfall for the entire region with this pattern. We will know soon but I believe this could be a pretty major event for many places and probably catch a bunch of people off guard.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

You're sitting better than most of us with your elevation.  Us lowlanders represent the bigger part of the metro, even me out towards Estacada, I'm just over 300'.  Are you thinking 2-4 at your elevation or us poor folk? Equity might work here, but only here.  LOL

I like Dewey’s analogy of Wednesday being a juiced up but warmer version of 12-14-08. 

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

You're sitting better than most of us with your elevation.  Us lowlanders represent the bigger part of the metro, even me out towards Estacada, I'm just over 300'.  Are you thinking 2-4 at your elevation or us poor folk? Equity might work here, but only here.  LOL

Actually this time I'm cautiously optimistic that S. Metro will do better than anyone else-- would be some nice karmic balance. But it's gonna be all about where that deformation band sets up after swinging in from the south-- could be right over the metro, could be OC south, could be Salem. Fingers crossed!

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would be remiss not to mention the 30th anniversary of the greatest willamette valley snowstorm of my lifetime is today. 

Believe it or not I was just about to post about this! At the coast we ended up with very little, but tomorrow we ended up with a surprise three inches or so from the little surface low associated with the ULL. Kind of similar to Wednesday’s system?

[Phishy Wx]

20 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Marcember to remember!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

50 minutes ago, Doinko said:

UKMET is fantastic

 

That model has terrible resolution.  It thinks the entire kitsap peninsula is sea level lol. There should be snow shown on the kitsap peninsula especially the area that is above 1000ft which is a pretty large area.

[SouthHillFrosty]

The 6z GEFS was drinking last night 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m excited about mid-March and looking back at these few weeks. I think we will have a lot to talk about. 

[LowerGarfield]

44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. I’m starting to get excited. 

I'd take it. Looks like that low on Canada is bringing a strong windstorm to my location tomorrow night. 60-70 mph gusts expected. NWS Spokane is more conservative about warnings and advisories for wind for my area than Pendleton is.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another model that leaves the Puget Sound area out of the fun except for maybe Randy.    

I'd like to see if it's precip or temp issue. If it shows precip than it's just wrong for kitsap peninsula. There is a large area over 1000ft over here and that map thinks the entire area is sea level it would appear. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

I have never seen a ensemble so snowy before…:

[MossMan]

Getting the plow staged today and going to fire up the generator to make sure all is a go for the major winter madness! 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m excited about mid-March and looking back at these few weeks. I think we will have a lot to talk about. 

Even after this week things still look interesting. Will probably be several chances at lowland snow in the mid/long range. 

[TacomaWx]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

850s stay in the -5 to -6 range indefinitely over SEA.  Not exactly returning to normal.  And in case you haven't noticed the model are indicating a -NAO developing which causes more cold to be forced into SW Canada.  I'm betting that in two weeks people are going to look back on their naysaying at this point and realize they were wrong.

You worry too much about other people’s opinions. I do agree with a lot of what you said about the future potential…but everyone doesn’t have to agree with you. Just tell ‘em in a couple weeks time I told ya so. 

[snow_wizard]

Th operational GFS has even more of a delay in the weekend warmup than the 0z had.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

You worry too much about other people’s opinions. I do agree with a lot of what you said about the future potential…but everyone doesn’t have to agree with you. Just tell ‘em in a couple weeks time I told ya so. 

I agree.  It's totally on me how I react to it.  The weenieism last night was insane though.

[LowerGarfield]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would take this to mean they might see at least some snow on the CA Coast.

I think more likely would mean possibility of snow above about 2500-3k ft on the higher hills and mtns. Anything is possible above 2k ft although usually the snow line in NorCal sits around 3k. Anything around that height or greater can expect snow at least once in an average year. Hence why poison oak is less common there above 3-4k ft but loves lower hills.

 2500k is more marginal but can happen in places such Colfax. Below 2K in only the best setups in places like Auburn or Placerville.

[MossMan]

Memories! 

[LowerGarfield]

9 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I think more likely would mean possibility of snow above about 2500-3k ft on the higher hills and mtns. Anything is possible above 2k ft although usually the snow line in NorCal sits around 3k. Anything around that height or greater can expect snow at least once in an average year. Hence why poison oak is less common there above 3-4k ft but loves lower hills.

 2500k is more marginal but can happen in places such Colfax. Below 2K in only the best setups in places like Auburn or Placerville.

To add to my post. Mt Tam in Marin, north of SF is about 2500 ft and it is not uncommon to see snow for a few days actually stick and visible from my location further away. They are in a favored location for precip and in a cooler spot so it sticks. Mt Diablo 40 or so miles from SF is 3800 ft and I have fewer memories of seeing sticking snow on that peak but whenever CA gets a cold system people drive there to see an inch or two of snow and play in it. Mt Hamilton near San Jose is about a thousand ft higher than that and snow is of course much more common there, seen usually each winter for a few days. Santa Cruz mtns could get snow but it's not a common event for them. They are very favored in rain events, with totals similar to the PNW traditionally.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I hope areas to the south get rocked with this pattern.  With that said I believe areas in the Puget Sound will get hit hard as well. Expecting a pretty good shot out here. 

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Lot of model runs insistent on painting that little bullseye just south of the Columbia.

Is there a specific reason why? Or just something that all models are seeing. That would be great though!

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I agree.  It's totally on me how I react to it.  The weenieism last night was insane though.

FWIW, I think the overreaction to the weenieism is by definition weenier than the initial weeniing.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I hope areas to the south get rocked with this pattern.  With that said I believe areas in the Puget Sound will get hit hard as well. Expecting a pretty good shot out here. 

We will see how it goes here…definitely think a lot of places atleast see flakes or a trace of snow. It really wouldn’t be too shocking for us to get an inch or so of unexpected snow if the precipitation shield is underdone on the north side. The best of this is going to be in Oregon for sure. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RIP Richard Belzer! 

[Weiner Warrior]

Euro showing a touch more snow dor Seattle for same time frame 

[TT-SEA]

This precip on Wednesday morning per 12Z ECMWF.    Just wanted to point out that the ECMWF has been showing that band of precip moving westward across the north Sound on many runs at that time.    People will say the ECMWF was totally dry but I am certain we will be watching that feature on the radar on Wednesday morning.  

 

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

RIP Richard Belzer! 

Oh no! Loved him on both SVU and as the presenter of this great Canadian true crime show called Crime Stories. RIP

[DRG]

For the next week-ish, I'll be where the green dot is...please make this happen

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Oh no! Loved him on both SVU and as the presenter of this great Canadian true crime show called Crime Stories. RIP

He was my favorite on SVU after Stabler left the show. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is becoming very consistent now... which makes sense since we are talking about an event in 2-3 days.    FWIW... that snow in northern King County is with a c-zone on Tuesday morning but then it pops back up into the low to mid 40s that afternoon.  

I really think its going to be memorable for Portland on Wednesday evening.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This precip on Wednesday morning per 12Z ECMWF.    Just wanted to point out that the ECMWF has been showing that band of precip moving westward across the north Sound on many runs at that time.    People will say the ECMWF was totally dry but I am certain we will be watching that feature on the radar on Wednesday morning.  

 

That looks really good here. 

[MossMan]

Conflicting reports! 

[Weiner Warrior]

You guys in Oregon are going to get the goods!!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is becoming very consistent now... which makes sense since we are talking about an event in 2-3 days.    FWIW... that snow in northern King County is with a c-zone on Tuesday morning but then it pops back up into the low to mid 40s that afternoon.  

I really think its going to be memorable for Portland on Wednesday evening.

 

Wow, that looks great. 5" of snow here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is becoming very consistent now... which makes sense since we are talking about an event in 2-3 days.     

I really think its going to be memorable for Portland on Wednesday evening.

 

Pretty much every model now showing 8-10” here by Thursday morning. 

[Deweydog]

Pretty easy to see why things are trending moister…

yesturday:

today:

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Is there a specific reason why? Or just something that all models are seeing. That would be great though!

I think just some added lift there with the closer access to the gorge air as it interacts with the developing system offshore. The exact placement of which will play a big part in where that particular deformation band develops, as it's generally been modeled as a pretty narrow 10-25 mile wide swath of intense stuff for the lowlands.

The likely slower-than-modeled cold air advection should be a bit of a benefit for places closer to the gorge. It doesn't look like a mountain wave type gradient with this system so I don't see a ton of downslope being likely.

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

RIP Richard Belzer! 

Sounds like Tom Sizemore might be knocking on the door too.