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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The issue is you are arguing a point no one is making. I haven’t seen one person compare next week, or at least early next week, to what we have coming up. The other shot we might have is a little further down the road. 

Fair enough.

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The strong cold signal goes from the north of us in the short term to south of us in the mid and long range. 

The strong cold signal in SW BC this coming week came into view during our first days in Hawaii which was 10 days ago now.   I said that was what I was waiting to see on the EPS.    And its happening.    

But the period after this week will not be nearly as active or crazy as this week... in my opinion.  

You can tell me I am wrong all you want... but I am not cherry picking and I don't think its going to be as crazy active as some are saying.     Below is later this week compared to the 5 day average later in the run.     

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-7196800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8017600.png

To be fair GEFS sniffed out the cold signal first and has been pretty consistent. Snow maps have been nutty though.

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3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

To be fair GEFS sniffed out the cold signal first and has been pretty consistent. Snow maps have been nutty though.

Yeah those GEFS snow maps will not happen. 6” is pretty much the top upper

limit barring some weird 2019 like event. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS so far. The consistency of the cold for this time of year definitely gives me some 2012 or 2019 vibez. 763B9B14-1915-4BBF-9DD6-F28E1132B346.png

Good call on 850s verifying in the -8/-10C range this week. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Brookings effect?

My brother lives about 15 SE of North Bend, OR. He said this pattern is about as good as it gets for producing snow along the south Coast. I know they had minor accumulations in late February 2018 and 19. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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As someone who lives in the Seattle metro area, I'm pretty psyched for this upcoming week. Should be quite rarified cold for this time of year and plenty of snow opportunities to go along with it. Hoping for surprises, as well as that THUMPING of snow on the Euro to verify for Portland.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just noticed this… 

13540FF1-7FBD-4D43-B9AD-E95261BF0EE6.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

As someone who lives in the Seattle metro area, I'm pretty psyched for this upcoming week. Should be quite rarified cold for this time of year and plenty of snow opportunities to go along with it. Hoping for surprises, as well as that THUMPING of snow on the Euro to verify for Portland.

Personally I am most excited to track the Portland event.    They have been waiting a long time.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Show me where I have scolded anyone for being excited about snow.    Show me where I have told anyone what to like or not like.   Never happened... because I have no intention to do that at all.    I have been doing the opposite.   

Okay some time has passed and my white hot rage has subsided. I did yell a lil bit, and aside from tossing a few pieces of furniture around and making the neighbors cry, I think I'm good now and mostly under control. SO say the police. Anyways.

I do not think you have any malicious intent with your warm EPS maps. I'm just saying, it sometimes makes you into the 'well, ackshyually" type of poster and it's a downer for a lot of people.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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From my own personal perspective, the GFS and NAM are too aggressive, the Euro is probably a tad too warm. There will be surprises, and letdowns. There. My hot takes all out in the wind, fluttering about like snowflakes in the Westlake district of downtown Seattle at 9:38pm on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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image.png

This is most welcome.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

From my own personal perspective, the GFS and NAM are too aggressive, the Euro is probably a tad too warm. There will be surprises, and letdowns. There. My hot takes all out in the wind, fluttering about like snowflakes in the Westlake district of downtown Seattle at 9:38pm on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023.

How do you think we'll do in Portland? I'm hoping the cold air doesn't take too long to arrive before precip ends.

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

From my own personal perspective, the GFS and NAM are too aggressive, the Euro is probably a tad too warm. There will be surprises, and letdowns. There. My hot takes all out in the wind, fluttering about like snowflakes in the Westlake district of downtown Seattle at 9:38pm on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2023.

someone please hold me to this. you can take my life if this doesn't verify, if you so please

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How do you think we'll do in Portland? I'm hoping the cold air doesn't take too long to arrive before precip ends.

It'll be pretty fun down there Wednesday evening, especially in the central Willamette.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Okay some time has passed and my white hot rage has subsided. I did yell a lil bit, and aside from tossing a few pieces of furniture around and making the neighbors cry, I think I'm good now and mostly under control. SO say the police. Anyways.

I do not think you have any malicious intent with your warm EPS maps. I'm just saying, it sometimes makes you into the 'well, ackshyually" type of poster and it's a downer for a lot of people.

😀

There is nothing warm on the EPS!

 And the 'well actually' stuff is just life.   If we are talking about the models and not just hyping.  Seems to be a constant battle about the purpose of a weather forum and I have accepted that it's both.   

Sometimes it's crazy good and I was all over that last week when this week came into view.    And I am going to be all over snow chances this week.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Okay some time has passed and my white hot rage has subsided. I did yell a lil bit, and aside from tossing a few pieces of furniture around and making the neighbors cry, I think I'm good now and mostly under control. SO say the police. Anyways.

I do not think you have any malicious intent with your warm EPS maps. I'm just saying, it sometimes makes you into the 'well, ackshyually" type of poster and it's a downer for a lot of people.

Amen, it is difficult for one to see the things they do that most around them actually see.  And there is a lot of us on here that see it.

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9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Amen, it is difficult for one to see the things they do that most around them actually see.  And there is a lot of us on here that see it.

See what?   Seriously.

I get multiple messages every week from different people thanking me for my honest analysis and to ignore the same small group of people who jumps all over me all the time.  It surprises me how many people reach out individually.   I honestly have no ill intent.   But you can believe whatever you want.   I don't let it bother me any more.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

For those in the forecast contest... highs from Wednesday through Friday per ECMWF.   The cold highs on Thursday are even more impressive considering it shows a decent amount of sun that day.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-7110400 (3).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-7196800 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-7283200 (2).png

Thursday looks cold. I think there's a chance we could see maybe a sub 35 high but I'm not sure about subfreezing since it's so late.

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Thursday looks cold. I think there's a chance we could see maybe a sub 35 high but I'm not sure about subfreezing since it's so late.

Particularly if there is snow on the ground.   And the ECMWF says there will be.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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ICON is pretty juicy for the Willamette but anemic for the Sound.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

?

303B63CB-EE42-45FE-A164-938FD11A888C.png

Hour 84 vs hour 87

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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18z GFS is skittering about

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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