PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Christensen87]

Yeah, looks like march 4 ish is the next timeframe to watch for. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

@TT-SEAyou must understand. I have engaged JIM Mode. 

Well then I better just not post.   You will get very forceful with compliance.   

[Phishy Wx]

Anybody knows that opinions are only allowed if they are Pro Cold and Snow. I'm mean geez people

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, Perturbed Member said:

18z NAM actually has some snow for PDX Wednesday AM too. Temps are marginal though, 31-33F across the metro area. 

GRAF too

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What?  Having a different opinion?

If the GFS was showing massive ridge in the long range and the EPS was showing a trough... I wouldn't believe that ridge regardless of what I wanted.    I am pretty simple.   I follow the EPS in the long range and that works out the majority of the time.    It's the best odds... by far.

Is the EPS showing a huge ridge now? Hard to keep track of that thing these days. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Is the EPS showing a huge ridge now? Hard to keep track of that thing these days. 

No.   Of course not.   Just using it as an example.   

But its also not showing anything close that really strong BC cold signal happening again.  Go back 10 days and the EPS was showing that crazy strong BC cold signal then.   And it is actually coming in 3 days.  Worked out well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No.   Of course not.   Just using it as an example.   

But its also not showing anything close that really strong BC cold signal happening again.  Go back 10 days and the EPS was showing that crazy strong BC cold signal then.   And it is actually coming in 3 days.  Worked out well.

It was slower than the GFS to latch on though. Let’s check back in 3-4 days. I’m sure you will let us know if the eps is showing ridging around March 5th if it is. 

[Phishy Wx]

Brrrrr

 

Per NWS Spokane:

 

Thursday is currently forecasted to be the coldest day of the week, 
as drier air continues to filter into the Inland Northwest for the 
best chance for skies to clear out. 

The National Blend of Models (NBM) is giving the following 
probabilities for Thursday's low temperatures to be below 10F: 
-Spokane: 75%, Sandpoint: 90%, Coeur d'Alene: 95%, Colville: 
 100%, Winthrop: 100%, Wenatchee 40%, Pullman 80%, Moses Lake: 
 30%, Lewiston: 5%. 

NBM probabilities for Thursday's high temperatures to be below
below 20F: 
-Spokane: 60%, Sandpoint: 95%, Coeur d'Alene: 70%, Colville: 75%,
 Winthrop: 85%, Wenatchee 20%, Pullman 15%, Moses Lake: 5%, 
 Lewiston: 0%. 

While winds Thursday morning will be weaker than Wednesday morning, 
air temperatures will be much colder, so even a slight breeze will 
result in wind chill values below -10F. In addition, some locations 
may even break daily records for the lowest high temperatures. 
February has been a pretty mild month, with most days featuring 
above average temperatures for this time of year. This may have 
given individuals a false sense of hope that winter was over, but 
that is very much not the case. These temperatures will pose impacts 
for newborn livestock and people without adequate heating, 
especially during the early morning hours. For tips on how to
protect yourself and others during excessive cold, please visit
weather.gov/safety/cold.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It was slower than the GFS to latch on though. Let’s check back in 3-4 days. I’m sure you will let us know if the eps is showing ridging around March 5th if it is. 

Good point.   EPS could pick up on it... totally agree.  But I am not on board until I see that.   No big deal Andrew.   That is just my opinion.    

[Perturbed Member]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GRAF too

 

Yeah that should be mostly non-sticking snow in the city and lowest elevations. 

12z Euro agrees with that too actually but temps crash Wednesday evenings and that brings the real sticking snow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dave Sallesky is not on board. 

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF will go out through Thursday morning.   Snow maps incoming in next 15 minutes.   Cheering hard for Portland!   No joke.   Seriously would love to see it happen. 

[Omegaraptor]

My brother is currently in San Diego and will be there for the next week and a half or so. Bet he wasn’t expecting this.

[umadbro]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Dave Sallesky is not on board. 

Roads must be too warm for sticking snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

My brother is currently in San Diego and will be there for the next week and a half or so. Bet he wasn’t expecting this.

Time to head out to Julian. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice AFD from the Portland nws office. 

[TT-SEA]

Boom!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Boom!

What are temps like while it's snowing?

[fubario]

2 hours ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

the bias is strong with the donut holes over the south sound a lot this winter.

Seriously. wuddup wit dat?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Boom!

Holy moly. Thanks for sharing brotha. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What are temps like while it's snowing?

Cold enough! 

[Timmy]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Boom!

Ouch, that was a rug pull for Columbia county.  Great for pdx though 

[Meatyorologist]

On 2/18/2023 at 12:03 AM, Dave said:

Although this is off topic, this is a good watch. This dude dumbs down a lot of the meteorology for plebs like me and he seems to know what he is talking about. It is a good summary of the deadly Vancouver, WA tornado of 1972.

  

I almost missed this! I was about to post the video myself but you beat me to it. Weatherbox is an awesome channel and the dude behind it isn't just some east coast weenie... When he talks about weather configurations he speaks about the upstream implications over the western US. Even in his video about the harsh winters of the mid 1970s in the midwest, he sets aside 7 minutes to talk about the dismal snowpack and drought situation that pattern created up and down the west coast.

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Boom!

I see no booms. 

[T-Town]

Looks like it might be a streetlight staring event in Tacoma:
 

Was that a flake?  I think I saw a flake. 

No, I think it might be raining. 
 

No, I think it’s snowing. Those are flakes. 
 

Hmmm… Actually I don’t think it’s doing anything. 

No, it’s definitely snowing…. I think…

[Meatyorologist]

I wonder if we will begin to challenge what is climatologically possible for March. Fun times ahead. I'm rooting for as much cold and snow as possible...duh

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

I see no booms. 

You gonna get buried on March 5th!

[thickhog]

42 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Dave Sallesky is not on board. 

What’d he say?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I wonder if we will begin to challenge what is climatologically possible for March. Fun times ahead. I'm rooting for as much cold and snow as possible...duh

I mean... if we crushed April last year then March seems like low hanging fruit. 

 

[fubario]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I see no booms. 

Yes. What's the opposite of a "boom"? lol

[thickhog]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice AFD from the Portland nws office. 

Saying 10-20% chance of 1 inch in the lowlands through Wed.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I mean... if we crushed April last year then March seems like low hanging fruit. 

 

No subfreezing highs though! Let's see if we can do that in the first half of March. There is a small precedent!

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, fubario said:

Yes. What's the opposite of a "boom"? lol

Doom. Gloom. We are doomed up here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, thickhog said:

Saying 10-20% chance of 1 inch in the lowlands through Wed.

Seems reasonable. Some folks at the lowest elevations will definitely see an inch though. Question is where! 

[Prairiedog]

4 hours ago, Doinko said:

I wonder if Mark Nelsen will jump on it now the Euro shows it too. I think he's off today though

He's almost always off on the weekends.  I wonder too if he'll modify his forecast but he was pretty set Friday with his 7-day and gave his reasons.  His fill in this am bumped Thursdays high down one giant degree from 36 to 35 but left Friday at 38 and kept the "only flurries" late Tuesday night into Wed and then crickets. He doubted there would be any accumulation on the valley floor.  He also said, "It's still some days out yet, so we will see".   It will be an interesting forecast for sure Monday unless he blogs something before that. 

[Meatyorologist]

Kind of a weird weather situation right now. A stalled warm front is causing upslope precipitation in the central-north Sound, and this configuration appears to remain nearly identical until our cold trough swings in from the NW and allows the pattern to progress. But for now, the weather is essentially frozen in time for another 24 hours or so; same conditions, winds, and temps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, thickhog said:

What’d he say?

 

[Requiem]

I think as long as the models stay steadfast through the next two days we'll see some flipping from the local mets. Worth noting our friend Rod Hill actually predicted this a bit ago!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I think as long as the models stay steadfast through the next two days we'll see some flipping from the local mets. Worth noting our friend Rod Hill actually predicted this a bit ago!

Rod!!!!!

[Requiem]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Holy moly. Thanks for sharing brotha. 

 

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Boom!

Great! Thanks for sharing. Have an inkling that north cutoff may not be *that* stark where it does set up.