PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SouthHillFrosty]

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see the GFS and ECMWF have both trended colder for Thursday in the home stretch.  18z GFS had 33/23 for SEA and the 12z ECMWF had 31/23.  Very impressive cold for this late in the winter.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uhhhh… didn’t he post the eps.

Yeah... and March 5-7th is just outside the range of the EPS currently which went out to March 4th on the last run.    It will be interesting to see if it starts showing the tell-tale strong cold signal over BC again in the long range in the next couple of days.  Could happen!  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Nice to see the GFS and ECMWF have both trended colder for Thursday in the home stretch.  18z GFS had 33/23 for SEA and the 12z ECMWF had 31/23.  Very impressive cold for this late in the winter.

Sub-freezing high at SEA would be very impressive.  

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... and March 5-7th is just outside the range of the EPS currently which went out to March 4th on the last run.    It will be interesting to see if it starts showing the tell-tale strong cold signal over BC again in the long range in the next couple of days.  Could happen!  

Main event is not in view yet? I’m down 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I'm becoming pretty convinced the Central Puget Sound will only see an inch or so going into the cold.  Still a chance for something unexpected like last year though.  Looks like a lot more snow chances going forward though.

[TT-SEA]

Not liking the 00Z ICON... much less in the way of deformation over the Portland area on Wednesday night.   Hope the ECMWF holds it ground.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm becoming pretty convinced the Central Puget Sound will only see an inch or so going into the cold.  Still a chance for something unexpected like last year though.  Looks like a lot more snow chances going forward though.

The little surprise snow last February was nice. 

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm becoming pretty convinced the Central Puget Sound will only see an inch or so going into the cold.  Still a chance for something unexpected like last year though.  Looks like a lot more snow chances going forward though.

That lack of insulation makes life harder for the plants during the cold snap. Hoping for a little more snow cover going into the freeze. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm becoming pretty convinced the Central Puget Sound will only see an inch or so going into the cold.  Still a chance for something unexpected like last year though.  Looks like a lot more snow chances going forward though.

Yea not sold on anything good for the PS south of Everett. We will see tho! Portland is in a good place and they will score! 

Edited February 20, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty

[Gradient Keeper]

None of the local mets on board in the PDX metro area.

History tells us whenever we have a low attendant to an arctic front/boundary or interacts with one that it's often a snowy scenario, sometimes very snowy. That is exactly what the models show currently. Maybe they are thinking the models are running too cold and not factoring in the increasing sun angles. Dunno.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The little surprise snow last February was nice. 

That is something that would be very easy for the models to miss or would be barely noticeable... that is probably .01 in precip.    It would be so easy for something like to happen once there is cold air in place.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not liking the 00Z ICON... much less in the way of deformation over the Portland area on Wednesday night.   Hope the ECMWF holds it ground.

Flatiron jinx activating.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Brrrrr I got cold just looking at the icon. Trending colder in the home stretch. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That is something that would be very hard for the models to miss... that is probably .01 in precip.    It would be so easy for something like to happen once there is cold air in place.

I doubt we get an inch here…something like the photo is kind of what I’m expecting. Unless things change on the models our best chance might be something in the next couple weeks. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I doubt we get an inch here…something like the photo is kind of what I’m expecting. Unless things change on the models our best chance might be something in the next couple weeks. 

I updated my post... meant to say it would very "easy" for the models to miss.  

[RentonHill]

It’s like kind of stormy outside here. Definitely not the drizzle fest earlier. Wtf @Meatyorologist I told my family nothing would change for 48 hours?? 

[Perturbed Member]

Anyone have the weatherbell ICON snow map?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, RentonHill said:

It’s like kind of stormy outside here. Definitely not the drizzle fest earlier. Wtf @Meatyorologist I told my family nothing would change for 48 hours?? 

I bet your kids are pissed about being misled!  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Anyone have the weatherbell ICON snow map?

Only out through Wednesday morning... will post when it updates through Thursday morning.

[FroYoBro]

Just now, RentonHill said:

It’s like kind of stormy outside here. Definitely not the drizzle fest earlier. Wtf @Meatyorologist I told my family nothing would change for 48 hours?? 

@Meatyorologist put a lot of lives in danger with his dangerously mundane forecast earlier. Looks to be an intense onshore push. Thousands of innocent yuppies are in danger out on the lake now. Sue. 

[Sandy rocks]

I am definitely not misspelling his name, it's just one of those hard one. I know we are in a warming climate and that has to be considered. I remember many years when things were very different. I also know that places on the east side of Portland near the gorge and/or at higher elevations have a different climate often. Plants, in the spring, can often be a full month ahead of out here.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I doubt we get an inch here…something like the photo is kind of what I’m expecting. Unless things change on the models our best chance might be something in the next couple weeks. 

We still have the possible weekend snowfall.

[TT-SEA]

Well I was wrong about the ICON... its just a timing issue.   Its faster and already shows decent snow in Portland by 4 p.m. Wednesday.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Brrrrr I got cold just looking at the icon. Trending colder in the home stretch. 

Kind of dovetails with the GFS and ECMWF getting a bit colder in the home stretch.  Very legit cold coming at the very least.

Things certainly look good for Portland for some decent snowfall.  Aside from here I want to see them score the most.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Well I was wrong about the ICON... its just a timing issue.   Its faster and already shows decent snow in Portland by 4 p.m. Wednesday.

I think our best shot in the Seattle area is to have that northern stuff verify south of expectations.  With a stronger / faster push of cold it could happen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of dovetails with the GFS and ECMWF getting a bit colder in the home stretch.  Very legit cold coming at the very least.

Things certainly look good for Portland for some decent snowfall.  Aside from here I want to see them score the most.

This is gonna be like 2011 imo. 

[thickhog]

Call me a weenie but I’ll believe it when the local mets or NWS get on board. 

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

It’s like kind of stormy outside here. Definitely not the drizzle fest earlier. Wtf @Meatyorologist I told my family nothing would change for 48 hours?? 

9 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

@Meatyorologist put a lot of lives in danger with his dangerously mundane forecast earlier. Looks to be an intense onshore push. Thousands of innocent yuppies are in danger out on the lake now. Sue. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well I was wrong about the ICON... its just a timing issue.   Its faster and already shows decent snow in Portland by 4 p.m. Wednesday.

Hoping the system moves by slower. Probably will be harder for stuff to accumulate during the day but should be fun to watch at least if it is faster like the ICON shows.

[Doinko]

GFS is farther south with the heaviest snow. Also looks like less phantom snow this run

[MossMan]

On life support. 

[FroYoBro]

This would be great timing for my location.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

522 thickness to Eugene at the end of the ICON. 

[Doinko]

Just now, FroYoBro said:

This would be great timing for my location.

GFS really nails your area with 5"+. On the northern edge here but still decent 2-3".

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

This would be great timing for my location.

Outstanding!!!

[Omegaraptor]

51 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

I think Joshua Lake Oswego gave up on this place because he was scorned and mocked every time he brought up drought issues. I can relate.

For the record, EUG is way behind in every precipitation metric. Going on 8 straight months of below-normal rainfall. February could end up top-tier dry (like 2020 and 2022) if the upcoming systems under-perform like so many have recently. But that's not important. What's important is that actually may SNOW half an inch, amirite?

tbh the guy kind of overblew the dry thing so much you'd think he lived in Moses Lake or something

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think our best shot in the Seattle area is to have that northern stuff verify south of expectations.  With a stronger / faster push of cold it could happen.

And still could get a dusting even with the models showing nothing and being technically correct.  

[Perturbed Member]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

This isn’t really the kind of setup with a precip shield from WAA. Looks mainly frontogenic with enhancement due to some localized deformation and upslope assistance. Doesn’t mean it couldn’t set up further north, but the dynamics don’t suggest the typical rightful assumption that precip will sprawl a bit more than modeled.

What do you think is driving that? Some kind of convergence or lift from the outflow from the gorge? Upsloping from east winds running into the coast range?

 

1/10/17 part 2 confirmed. 

[TacomaWx]

Shame there just isn’t a ton of precip to work with. Would be cool if Oregon saw a much heavier widespread snow event to break the streak. Should still be good for most spots.