PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Requiem]

C'mon 850 ft put in your magic! 

Also good morning folks.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TT-SEA]

On the opposite end of the weather spectrum... my sister and her husband are in London and Dublin this week and she said its lush green and there are flowers blooming everywhere.    Maybe that will be next spring here with a Nino in place.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

March 1951 repeat except it starts the last week of February?

[TacomaWx]

We might look back on this period of weather coming up as a very memorable one. Those of us who don’t score tonight into tomorrow will likely get a good round of snow Sunday morning. Not easy to pull off a regional event like this late in the winter but it’s looking like it’s going to happen. 

[Phishy Wx]

these mesolows like to camp out for awhile, E WA one still hanging around just west of here

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, thickhog said:

Portland NWS still thinks nothing noteworthy is happening later tonight. Guess we’ll see.

Not been following the models super-closely, so I'm not sure about how plausible those 10"+ scenarios are, but that just doesn’t make sense. Model signals are very strong: PDX is almost certain to get at least a few inches out of this event. Coupled with a flash freeze, that ensures an impactful snowstorm.

NWS is gonna end up with egg on their face if they don’t issue a warning.

[Cold Snap]

After seeing the model runs this morning especially the HRDPS, it’s going to be really fun seeing how this event goes for the Portland area. Though I can’t imagine the HRDPS being right I wouldn’t rule out some places getting over a foot.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not been following the models super-closely, so I'm not sure about how plausible those 10"+ scenarios are, but that just doesn’t make sense. Model signals are very strong: PDX is almost certain to get at least a few inches out of this event. Coupled with a flash freeze, that ensures an impactful snowstorm.

NWS is gonna end up with egg on their face if they don’t issue a warning.

Yeah... I think every model is showing significant snow now.   And its already been snowing in parts of the Portland area.   Bad idea to ignore this one.  

[Deweydog]

Pretty rare to have 1.5” on the ground after Scappoose has reported rain the entire time. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I think every model is showing significant snow now.   And its already been snowing in parts of the Portland area.   Bad idea to ignore this one.  

Portlands going to get slammed 2017 style MBG. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I think every model is showing significant snow now.   And its already been snowing in parts of the Portland area.   Bad idea to ignore this one.  

They issued a WWA.

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty rare to have 1.5” on the ground after Scappoose has reported rain the entire time. 

Yeah it’s just been rain here since 7:30. I live at 100’ and there is 3/4” on the ground still

[Cold Snap]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They issued a WWA.

The WWA they issued appears to be for this mornings snow. They don’t say anything about tonight in it.

[Doinko]

Nothing on the ground here and it's stopped snowing, but the GRAF looks fantastic. Almost 10" of snow here

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

The WWA they issued appears to be for this mornings snow. They don’t say anything about tonight in it.

The PDX metro area is almost certain to get more than “up to one inch” of additional snow.

[TacomaWx]

Y’all should stop giving the NWS Portland such a hard time. They just don’t want to jinx such a blessing so they’re downplaying it. 

[Meatyorologist]

Back at the house there's just a trace. Got about an inch here at work in Westlake. Looks like this evens the seasonal snowfall gap in the immediate metro area that was created by December's transitional event that favored the north end of the city, as well as the marginal overrunning events of Nov/Dec which dotted my house but barely brought a mix to the city.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Y’all should stop giving the NWS Portland such a hard time. They just don’t want to jinx such a blessing so they’re downplaying it. 

I heard Andrew is interning there this week.

[OysterPrintout]

If you decide to kick the totals prior to say 4PM here as snow in the air but non sticking you still result with mostly 2-4" solutions so the maps would look a lot more "realistic" in that scenario. Obviously other areas in the metro are gonna do better.

Sylvan Hill had wet non-sticking snow. Mostly a mix on the way out to 185th.

[Christensen87]

CFS has been hinting at the fun ending after the March 4-7 trough, and we warm up substantially. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Snow has started up again. Radar filled in fast. Hopefully a theme the next 18 hours or so. Coming down good again.

[Timmy]

Uk

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Nothing on the ground here and it's stopped snowing, but the GRAF looks fantastic. Almost 10" of snow here

 

And note that it’s FOX 12 running those maps and calling them plausible. They are normally conservative on snow amounts. Just can’t understand the official NWS forecast. Even east Portland is going to be an icy mess in that scenario when 2" of snow and slush freeze solid on the streets.

[AlTahoe]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

March 1951 repeat except it starts the last week of February?

It's looking like a March 1952 repeat down this way, which is interesting since this is the coldest Nov-Feb 20th since the winter of 1951-1952.

March of 1951 we got 21" of snow

March of 1952 we got 121" of snow. 

[Perturbed Member]

34F here, a bit of snow on cars but otherwise nothing. I think I should do fine this evening. 

12z GRAF

As far as the GRAF goes, that's a lot of snow. 6-10 inch totals west side. 

[Doinko]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And note that it’s FOX 12 running those maps and calling them plausible. They are normally conservative on snow amounts. Just can’t understand the official NWS forecast. Even east Portland is going to be an icy mess in that scenario when 2" of snow and slush freeze solid on the streets.

Those are auto-generated maps, they have maps for the GFS/Euro and GRAF. They don't show all on air though, but this model nailed the valentine's day snow so it's definitely a pretty accurate one

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

If you decide to kick the totals prior to say 4PM here as snow in the air but non sticking you still result with mostly 2-4" solutions so the maps would look a lot more "realistic" in that scenario. Obviously other areas in the metro are gonna do better.

Sylvan Hill had wet non-sticking snow. Mostly a mix on the way out to 185th.

Good point, I keep wondering how much of the snow from the maps with the mega totals is forecast to fall around peak “warming” today. I think much of the metro under 500’ will struggle to see accumulation from about 11-4.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Snow has started up again. Radar filled in fast. Hopefully a theme the next 18 hours or so. Coming down good again.

This is going to be a epic event there buddy. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Uk

That would be anarchy.

[MossMan]

Well this winter is now at A- status with the nearly 3” unforecasted stunt that Mother Nature pulled this morning! My truck covered in snow under the carport equals a north wind! Love that sight! 

[ShawniganLake]

56 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

So no one is going to mention that the Canadian RDPS just spit out 3 ******* FEET of snow in Portland? Shows the temps dropping below freezing by noon and then absolutely nukes the city.

Could be overdone.  I like the HRDPS but all of the Canadian models tend to run a little moist a lot of the time.  Placement could be right on the heaviest band but just over juiced on the amounts. 

[Requiem]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They issued a WWA.

What are your thoughts on this as to why models switched back to a more convective solution? Do you buy the solutions the models are spitting out right now?

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That would be anarchy.

*will be 

[OysterPrintout]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Good point, I keep wondering how much of the snow from the maps with the mega totals is forecast to fall around peak “warming” today. I think much of the metro under 500’ will struggle to see accumulation from about 11-4.

In the case of the Euro - about half of it. In the case of the recently run GFS - more than that even looks like.

[TacomaWx]

Most places north of Seattle are below freezing…just above south. Still light snow here in Redmond…sea tac at 32 and light snow. it’s early in the day but I suspect today won’t get out of the 30s especially if we maintain some cloud cover. 

[Doinko]

Just now, OysterPrintout said:

In the case of the Euro - about half of it. In the case of the recently run GFS - more than that even looks like.

GRAF looks like mostly not phantom snow, and shows 8-10" here. Hoping it's right

[Timmy]

Ttd -dls up to -2.2, dls down to 33f and dp has dropped 6 degrees over the last couple hours to 26f

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well this winter is now at A- status with the nearly 3” unforecasted stunt that Mother Nature pulled this morning! My truck covered in snow under the carport equals a north wind! Love that sight! 

Wow 3” that’s pretty solid. That’s going to stick around all week and you’ll probably get snow Sunday and beyond. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Most places north of Seattle are below freezing…just above south. Still light snow here in Redmond…sea tac at 32 and light snow. it’s early in the day but I suspect today won’t get out of the 30s especially if we maintain some cloud cover. 

28 here!

[OysterPrintout]

Just now, Doinko said:

GRAF looks like mostly not phantom snow, and shows 8-10" here. Hoping it's right

GRAF basically looks like something similar to Euro/GFS except it is saying there isn't any precip (and thus snow) during the day at all. Kinda weird.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

What are your thoughts on this as to why models switched back to a more convective solution? Do you buy the solutions the models are spitting out right now?

Hard to say, just model noise I suppose. I think the west side will see plenty of enhancement overnight as the offshore flow slowly deepens and meaningful advection kicks in. Even 24 hours from now dynamics are still pretty decent.

[FroYoBro]

Been getting some nice wet snow for the past hour in the far sw Portland area. Hoping this is just the appetizer for later! 

[Christensen87]

It's been a beautiful, bright morning in Kent/Covington. 40 degrees currently. Envious of everyone seeing snow! Maybe tonight...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

It's been a beautiful, bright morning down in Kent/Covington. 40 degrees currently. Envious of everyone seeing snow! Maybe tonight...

This weekend will be good.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

It's been a beautiful, bright morning in Kent/Covington. 40 degrees currently. Envious of everyone seeing snow! Maybe tonight...

Is the sun out there? Pretty much everywhere south of Seattle is 33-36 degrees currently in western WA. 

[Christensen87]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Is the sun out there? Pretty much everywhere south of Seattle is 33-36 degrees currently in western WA. 

Yep, just took the dog on a nice walk. Light breeze. 41 now. 

[umadbro]

About 2” on the ground with a moderate snow shower at the moment.  Battle Ground was the big winner this morning.

[MillCreekMike]

That was a classic NWS Seattle moment as a WWA was issued after the peak of the event. I know this wasn’t really in the models but it was clear there was a good setup at around 5 or 6 this morning.

[Christensen87]