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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

More so for Andrew.   Not as impressive up here.   Maybe 3-4 inches Sunday morning but then we get a few hours of a roaring SW wind and then the focus of the precip is from Oregon southward early next week again.   

Yeah, but you should have plenty of chances next week

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Honestly starting to get worried I’ll be too far south tonight based on some of the most recent runs this morning. Clark County always owns this area for snow events anyways. 
 

Give me the weenies. 

Really hoping for a decent metro wide event with a focus on the south and west metro. You guys are due.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Honestly starting to get worried I’ll be too far south tonight based on some of the most recent runs this morning. Clark County always owns this area for snow events anyways. 
 

Give me the weenies. 

Tigard should do really well once we shift to a more frontal dynamic.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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It’s crazy how scattered the snow showers are. There’s nothing on the ground at Woodinville-duvall road at the west snoqualmie intersection but the Avondale intersection has quite a bit.

F307F570-17F5-4793-8777-D4A3914E4893.jpeg

A91C8CCA-8C00-4E1E-A92D-1CD8958CB254.jpeg

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2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 15.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 70

Sub-40 highs - 21

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Really hoping for a decent metro wide event with a focus on the south and west metro. You guys are due.

The temps are concerning but i'm hoping that changes with these heavy bands down there. I want the entire fuking area to get hit from Eugene to Seattle.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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29 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks like no precip for my area today……I guess I was due to be skunked lol

Tonight is a better chance but not 100%

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-14

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-42

Total snowfall-7.6”

Monthly rainfall-2.38”

Wet season rainfall-20.77”

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The temps are concerning but i'm hoping that changes with these heavy bands down there. I want the entire fuking area to get hit from Eugene to Seattle.

Winds are still from the south here so it’s not too surprising that temps are still marginal. It will easily be cold enough later today though. Not too worried about the temps for the main show here, it’s all about where the moisture sets up.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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19 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

So no one is going to mention that the Canadian RDPS just spit out 3 ******* FEET of snow in Portland? Shows the temps dropping below freezing by noon and then absolutely nukes the city.

hrdps-portland-total_snow_kuchera-7222000.png

That bullseye is almost right over me. I'm really liking our chances

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  • Longtimer
15 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Honestly starting to get worried I’ll be too far south tonight based on some of the most recent runs this morning. Clark County always owns this area for snow events anyways. 
 

Give me the weenies. 

I think there'll be plenty to go around. The arctic air advecting into the low is a great mechanism for widespread lift everywhere, and this isn't one of those arctic airmasses that stops at Olympia.

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Posting the wider map of that insane RDPS run. Other items of note: The South Sound scores on it, and Coos Bay also gets 2-3ft, lol.

This would be the largest single snowfall in Portland history if it actually happened, right?

hrdps-washington-total_snow_kuchera-7236400.png

December 20-22, 1892 is the largest official storm of record in Portland. About 27" in 48 hours. 

Some pre-1870s storms like January 1857 and January 1866 may have been a bit larger but no official records exist from the city then.

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5 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Nothing happening in Tacoma. A brisk north wind and some broken clouds. 

I really think we’re going to score tonight. Models really seemed to underplay things so far as seen by what’s happening up north. Odds are pretty good IMO for 1/2” atleast tonight. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-14

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-42

Total snowfall-7.6”

Monthly rainfall-2.38”

Wet season rainfall-20.77”

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Just now, thickhog said:

Portland NWS still thinks nothing noteworthy is happening later tonight. Guess we’ll see.

Can you imagine if 2-3ft fell across the metro after the NWS forecast literally 0"? I can't even imagine the chaos that would occur in the city of the RDPS scenario actually occurred tonight. No one in Portland who isn't a weather nerd is expecting anything significant.

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  • Longtimer

Snow has let up here for the time being, but looks like more moisture could be rotating up from the SW soon. Nice coating on cars, trees and rooftops with even some slushy accumulation on the roads. 34 degrees.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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C'mon 850 ft put in your magic! 

Also good morning folks.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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  • Staff

On the opposite end of the weather spectrum... my sister and her husband are in London and Dublin this week and she said its lush green and there are flowers blooming everywhere.    Maybe that will be next spring here with a Nino in place.  😍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We might look back on this period of weather coming up as a very memorable one. Those of us who don’t score tonight into tomorrow will likely get a good round of snow Sunday morning. Not easy to pull off a regional event like this late in the winter but it’s looking like it’s going to happen. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-14

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-42

Total snowfall-7.6”

Monthly rainfall-2.38”

Wet season rainfall-20.77”

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8 minutes ago, thickhog said:

Portland NWS still thinks nothing noteworthy is happening later tonight. Guess we’ll see.

Not been following the models super-closely, so I'm not sure about how plausible those 10"+ scenarios are, but that just doesn’t make sense. Model signals are very strong: PDX is almost certain to get at least a few inches out of this event. Coupled with a flash freeze, that ensures an impactful snowstorm.

NWS is gonna end up with egg on their face if they don’t issue a warning.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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After seeing the model runs this morning especially the HRDPS, it’s going to be really fun seeing how this event goes for the Portland area. Though I can’t imagine the HRDPS being right I wouldn’t rule out some places getting over a foot.

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2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 15.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 70

Sub-40 highs - 21

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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  • Staff
Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not been following the models super-closely, so I'm not sure about how plausible those 10"+ scenarios are, but that just doesn’t make sense. Model signals are very strong: PDX is almost certain to get at least a few inches out of this event. Coupled with a flash freeze, that ensures an impactful snowstorm.

NWS is gonna end up with egg on their face if they don’t issue a warning.

Yeah... I think every model is showing significant snow now.   And its already been snowing in parts of the Portland area.   Bad idea to ignore this one.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I think every model is showing significant snow now.   And its already been snowing in parts of the Portland area.   Bad idea to ignore this one.  

Portlands going to get slammed 2017 style MBG. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-14

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-42

Total snowfall-7.6”

Monthly rainfall-2.38”

Wet season rainfall-20.77”

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I think every model is showing significant snow now.   And its already been snowing in parts of the Portland area.   Bad idea to ignore this one.  

They issued a WWA.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty rare to have 1.5” on the ground after Scappoose has reported rain the entire time. 

Yeah it’s just been rain here since 7:30. I live at 100’ and there is 3/4” on the ground still

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They issued a WWA.

The WWA they issued appears to be for this mornings snow. They don’t say anything about tonight in it.

961C9343-BA2C-4C54-A68B-F59169A94AB7.jpeg

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2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 15.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 70

Sub-40 highs - 21

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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Y’all should stop giving the NWS Portland such a hard time. They just don’t want to jinx such a blessing so they’re downplaying it. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-14

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-42

Total snowfall-7.6”

Monthly rainfall-2.38”

Wet season rainfall-20.77”

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Back at the house there's just a trace. Got about an inch here at work in Westlake. Looks like this evens the seasonal snowfall gap in the immediate metro area that was created by December's transitional event that favored the north end of the city, as well as the marginal overrunning events of Nov/Dec which dotted my house but barely brought a mix to the city.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
Just now, TacomaWx said:

Y’all should stop giving the NWS Portland such a hard time. They just don’t want to jinx such a blessing so they’re downplaying it. 

I heard Andrew is interning there this week.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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If you decide to kick the totals prior to say 4PM here as snow in the air but non sticking you still result with mostly 2-4" solutions so the maps would look a lot more "realistic" in that scenario. Obviously other areas in the metro are gonna do better.

Sylvan Hill had wet non-sticking snow. Mostly a mix on the way out to 185th.

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