PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[FroYoBro]

Looks just about as cold as the 18z too. 

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[Doinko]

GFS looks great for here. Slightly worse for WW though

[Requiem]

Don't love the southern trends 

[SouthHillFrosty]

This will wobble back and forth. Portland will be fine 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Looks just about as cold as the 18z too. 

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Told you fckers 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GFS looks great for here. Slightly worse for WW though

Good lord that is vomit worthy. 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

What do you think is driving that? Some kind of convergence or lift from the outflow from the gorge? Upsloping from east winds running into the coast range?

 

1/10/17 part 2 confirmed. 

Hopefully the cold air can arrive a bit faster however unlikely that is or for the low to wait a bit longer. Not liking how the majority of snow on the Euro falls above freezing

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

What do you think is driving that? Some kind of convergence or lift from the outflow from the gorge? Upsloping from east winds running into the coast range?

 

1/10/17 part 2 confirmed. 

Hard to say, a lot of meteorological pieces to such a mesoscale event, but calling it an Arctic front wouldn’t be disingenuous. GFS shows decent, but not impressive, frontogenesis in the northern valley and near the gorge but nothing more than you’d expect to see during any transition to mid level cold advection from the ENE. Ultimately it will be a matter of the balanced interaction between that process and the coastal low. As for 1/10/17, that was quite a bit different as it was a landfalling low which deepened to around 990mb. A lot more WAA in play. 

[Perturbed Member]

RGEM is great for the WV but not so much for PDX

[TT-SEA]

@Hawksfan2008 should be happy... gets to enjoy Maui without missing any snow in North Bend. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Winter canceled again!!

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

RGEM is great for the WV but not so much for PDX

I feel like we're in a decent location to see snow in the lowlands

 

[Doinko]

GEM looks pretty amazing for far S metro and the Valley.

[thickhog]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Hopefully the cold air can arrive a bit faster however unlikely that is or for the low to wait a bit longer. Not liking how the majority of snow on the Euro falls above freezing

Anyone over 1000 feet should do really well

[Weiner Warrior]

Pretty cool temps as the moisture comes into WW Sunday

[TT-SEA]

GFS doesn't like any overrunning snow for Seattle either and this has now become a Sunday event.    That is a delay of 2 days over the last few runs.

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Hard to say, a lot of meteorological pieces to such a mesoscale event, but calling it an Arctic front wouldn’t be disingenuous. GFS shows decent, but not impressive, frontogenesis in the northern valley and near the gorge but nothing more than you’d expect to see during any transition to mid level cold advection from the ENE. Ultimately it will be a matter of the balanced interaction between that process and the coastal low. As for 1/10/17, that was quite a bit different as it was a landfalling low which deepened to around 990mb. A lot more WAA in play. 

Yeah 1/10/17 was a pretty different setup on the larger scale, I was just comparing the frontogenesis when the precip from the landfalling low ran into the CAA arriving via the gorge to what might be happening on these models showing that narrow area of heavier snow totals across PDX metro on this week. 

The fact that some models have painted a bullseye somewhere in the region with fairly big snow totals suggests this could be a decently dynamic setup no?

[Requiem]

Let's hope for a steadfast EURO run! 

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

Oh shoot I'm back in the pepto shades again. Looking very promising would be very nice for sure!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah 1/10/17 was a pretty different setup on the larger scale, I was just comparing the frontogenesis when the precip from the landfalling low ran into the CAA arriving via the gorge to what might be happening on these models showing that narrow area of heavier snow totals across PDX metro on this week. 

The fact that some models have painted a bullseye somewhere in the region with fairly big snow totals suggests this could be a decently dynamic setup no?

Y'all are gonna get nailed.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS doesn't like any overrunning snow for Seattle either and this has now become a Sunday event.    That is a delay of 2 days over the last few runs.

GEM shows it a bit better

[Perturbed Member]

15 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Hopefully the cold air can arrive a bit faster however unlikely that is or for the low to wait a bit longer. Not liking how the majority of snow on the Euro falls above freezing

Yeah a lot of these snow maps are showing a decent amount of phantom snow so expectations should be set accordingly IMO. Those 5-6 inch totals in the WV probably aren't gonna verify. 

[TT-SEA]

The Canadians have checked in.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah 1/10/17 was a pretty different setup on the larger scale, I was just comparing the frontogenesis when the precip from the landfalling low ran into the CAA arriving via the gorge to what might be happening on these models showing that narrow area of heavier snow totals across PDX metro on this week. 

The fact that some models have painted a bullseye somewhere in the region with fairly big snow totals suggests this could be a decently dynamic setup no?

Oh yeah, it seems like it could have almost a convective element to it kinda like 1/10/17, just not nearly as much mid level moisture to counteract the dry advection for most spots. Upslope areas will be favored as well as just generally areas to the west. This is of course assuming a slow westward trend doesn’t continue over the next couple days…

[Doinko]

Wow, the UKMET is crazy

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS alert? 

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow, the UKMET is crazy

Good amount of it falls when it's more than cold enough too

[joelgombiner]

High of 55 today in Othello! 

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow, the UKMET is crazy

Yeah that just looks convective or something. Pretty crazy run. Probably pretty unrealistic but nice to see the UKMET hold the bullseye right over PDX just like its 12z run. Hopefully the 00z Euro looks like the 12z euro. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another insane GFS run 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also nice to see an AR thrown in for good measure on this run. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Another insane GFS run 

Have to say... there is consistency on the GFS for the first weekend in March.   

[Doinko]

[Cold Snap]

11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow, the UKMET is crazy

Really hoping an insane run like this can verify for PDX. Would be nice to see both Western WA and WV have nice snow events this winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Uhhhh

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also great how much snow the Sierras get. 

[bainbridgekid]

Just noticed a strong Westerly Surge down the Straight will hit the Everett-Mt. Vernon area tomorrow night. Probably especially strong around Whidbey and Camano Islands. High Wind Watch already up there.

 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Just noticed a strong Westerly Surge down the Straight will hit the Everett-Mt. Vernon area tomorrow night. Probably especially strong around Whidbey and Camano Islands. High Wind Watch already up there.

 

Instead of staging the snow plow it looks like I will be staging my generator! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just got upgraded! Looks like it could be windy too. 

[MWG]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just got upgraded! Looks like it could be windy too. 

Same here! This means I will get more than a trace this time!!