PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Nothing on the ground here and it's stopped snowing, but the GRAF looks fantastic. Almost 10" of snow here

 

And note that it’s FOX 12 running those maps and calling them plausible. They are normally conservative on snow amounts. Just can’t understand the official NWS forecast. Even east Portland is going to be an icy mess in that scenario when 2" of snow and slush freeze solid on the streets.

[AlTahoe]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

March 1951 repeat except it starts the last week of February?

It's looking like a March 1952 repeat down this way, which is interesting since this is the coldest Nov-Feb 20th since the winter of 1951-1952.

March of 1951 we got 21" of snow

March of 1952 we got 121" of snow. 

[Perturbed Member]

34F here, a bit of snow on cars but otherwise nothing. I think I should do fine this evening. 

12z GRAF

As far as the GRAF goes, that's a lot of snow. 6-10 inch totals west side. 

[Doinko]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And note that it’s FOX 12 running those maps and calling them plausible. They are normally conservative on snow amounts. Just can’t understand the official NWS forecast. Even east Portland is going to be an icy mess in that scenario when 2" of snow and slush freeze solid on the streets.

Those are auto-generated maps, they have maps for the GFS/Euro and GRAF. They don't show all on air though, but this model nailed the valentine's day snow so it's definitely a pretty accurate one

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

If you decide to kick the totals prior to say 4PM here as snow in the air but non sticking you still result with mostly 2-4" solutions so the maps would look a lot more "realistic" in that scenario. Obviously other areas in the metro are gonna do better.

Sylvan Hill had wet non-sticking snow. Mostly a mix on the way out to 185th.

Good point, I keep wondering how much of the snow from the maps with the mega totals is forecast to fall around peak “warming” today. I think much of the metro under 500’ will struggle to see accumulation from about 11-4.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Snow has started up again. Radar filled in fast. Hopefully a theme the next 18 hours or so. Coming down good again.

This is going to be a epic event there buddy. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Uk

That would be anarchy.

[MossMan]

Well this winter is now at A- status with the nearly 3” unforecasted stunt that Mother Nature pulled this morning! My truck covered in snow under the carport equals a north wind! Love that sight! 

[ShawniganLake]

56 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

So no one is going to mention that the Canadian RDPS just spit out 3 ******* FEET of snow in Portland? Shows the temps dropping below freezing by noon and then absolutely nukes the city.

Could be overdone.  I like the HRDPS but all of the Canadian models tend to run a little moist a lot of the time.  Placement could be right on the heaviest band but just over juiced on the amounts. 

[Requiem]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They issued a WWA.

What are your thoughts on this as to why models switched back to a more convective solution? Do you buy the solutions the models are spitting out right now?

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That would be anarchy.

*will be 

[OysterPrintout]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Good point, I keep wondering how much of the snow from the maps with the mega totals is forecast to fall around peak “warming” today. I think much of the metro under 500’ will struggle to see accumulation from about 11-4.

In the case of the Euro - about half of it. In the case of the recently run GFS - more than that even looks like.

[TacomaWx]

Most places north of Seattle are below freezing…just above south. Still light snow here in Redmond…sea tac at 32 and light snow. it’s early in the day but I suspect today won’t get out of the 30s especially if we maintain some cloud cover. 

[Doinko]

Just now, OysterPrintout said:

In the case of the Euro - about half of it. In the case of the recently run GFS - more than that even looks like.

GRAF looks like mostly not phantom snow, and shows 8-10" here. Hoping it's right

[Timmy]

Ttd -dls up to -2.2, dls down to 33f and dp has dropped 6 degrees over the last couple hours to 26f

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well this winter is now at A- status with the nearly 3” unforecasted stunt that Mother Nature pulled this morning! My truck covered in snow under the carport equals a north wind! Love that sight! 

Wow 3” that’s pretty solid. That’s going to stick around all week and you’ll probably get snow Sunday and beyond. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Most places north of Seattle are below freezing…just above south. Still light snow here in Redmond…sea tac at 32 and light snow. it’s early in the day but I suspect today won’t get out of the 30s especially if we maintain some cloud cover. 

28 here!

[OysterPrintout]

Just now, Doinko said:

GRAF looks like mostly not phantom snow, and shows 8-10" here. Hoping it's right

GRAF basically looks like something similar to Euro/GFS except it is saying there isn't any precip (and thus snow) during the day at all. Kinda weird.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

What are your thoughts on this as to why models switched back to a more convective solution? Do you buy the solutions the models are spitting out right now?

Hard to say, just model noise I suppose. I think the west side will see plenty of enhancement overnight as the offshore flow slowly deepens and meaningful advection kicks in. Even 24 hours from now dynamics are still pretty decent.

[FroYoBro]

Been getting some nice wet snow for the past hour in the far sw Portland area. Hoping this is just the appetizer for later! 

[Christensen87]

It's been a beautiful, bright morning in Kent/Covington. 40 degrees currently. Envious of everyone seeing snow! Maybe tonight...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

It's been a beautiful, bright morning down in Kent/Covington. 40 degrees currently. Envious of everyone seeing snow! Maybe tonight...

This weekend will be good.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

It's been a beautiful, bright morning in Kent/Covington. 40 degrees currently. Envious of everyone seeing snow! Maybe tonight...

Is the sun out there? Pretty much everywhere south of Seattle is 33-36 degrees currently in western WA. 

[Christensen87]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Is the sun out there? Pretty much everywhere south of Seattle is 33-36 degrees currently in western WA. 

Yep, just took the dog on a nice walk. Light breeze. 41 now. 

[umadbro]

About 2” on the ground with a moderate snow shower at the moment.  Battle Ground was the big winner this morning.

[MillCreekMike]

That was a classic NWS Seattle moment as a WWA was issued after the peak of the event. I know this wasn’t really in the models but it was clear there was a good setup at around 5 or 6 this morning.

[Christensen87]

[DRG]

Picked up about 2"+ overnight.  NWS has bumped up their projected totals for the area.  Looks like later today thru the first half of tomorrow is going to shake its money maker down here (15 miles east of Crescent City, CA about 300' asl).  Lots of dripping going on...probably switch to rain here at some point for a bit.

 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hard to say, just model noise I suppose. I think the west side will see plenty of enhancement overnight as the offshore flow slowly deepens and meaningful advection kicks in. Even 24 hours from now dynamics are still pretty decent.

Seems like we're being a bit shadowed at the moment. Do you think it'll even out and we'll do well later on? Most models show it but the last few years have been pretty disappointing here but this time it seems like a decent chance for us doing okay.

[Chris]

Wife said there is currently 4" - 5" at the house now.  Was only an inch when I left for work at 5 am this morning.

[Gummy]

Just now, MillCreekMike said:

That was a classic NWS Seattle moment as a WWA was issued after the peak of the event. I know this wasn’t really in the models but it was clear there was a good setup at around 5 or 6 this morning.

Yea, that is really common for them. Happens usually at least once per La Nina winter.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MillCreekMike said:

That was a classic NWS Seattle moment as a WWA was issued after the peak of the event. I know this wasn’t really in the models but it was clear there was a good setup at around 5 or 6 this morning.

I knew it was going to be a fun drive up north when I looked at the radar and saw the bands setting up north of I-90 along 405. Some of the models hinted at it but it was a sporadic signal at best…and some spots did really well this morning better than anything shown. Models aren’t gospel all the time. 

[Chris]

I don't think Mark Nelsen likes the winter weather as much as he used to.

 

From his blog - Will the metro area be a snowy, frozen hell-scape all day Thursday? No

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I knew it was going to be a fun drive up north when I looked at the radar and saw the bands setting up north of I-90 along 405. Some of the models hinted at it but it was a sporadic signal at best…and some spots did really well this morning better than anything shown. Models aren’t gospel all the time. 

I got caught up in the models, I usually don’t do that since I have seen so many over performances…I should have listened to you and Snowmizer. Just hard when you see basically every model showing zero or almost zero and temp maps in the 40’s. Not sure any temp map showed me at 28 degrees right now??? 

[umadbro]

[Phishy Wx]

windier than a Mutha up in here.  almost all the snow cover blew up the street to some guys perpendicular fence line.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I got caught up in the models, I usually don’t do that since I have seen so many over performances…I should have listened to you and Snowmizer. Just hard when you see basically every model showing zero or almost zero and temp maps in the 40’s. Not sure any temp map showed me at 28 degrees right now??? 

That is crazy!   Its currently 39 degrees in North Bend and the snow is falling off the trees here with lots of dripping.  

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That is crazy!   Its currently 39 degrees in North Bend and the snow is falling off the trees here with lots of dripping.  

Wow! Yeah everything is frozen solid here! 

[umadbro]

NWS still says it’s just about done for northern areas and nothing should happen tonight.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I got caught up in the models, I usually don’t do that since I have seen so many over performances…I should have listened to you and Snowmizer. Just hard when you see basically every model showing zero or almost zero and temp maps in the 40’s. Not sure any temp map showed me at 28 degrees right now??? 

Yesterday hope was lost but you may have about 8-10” of snow on the ground by the time things wrap Sunday with more likely at your elevation next week. This was a set up that was prime for having a hard time picking up on subtle features like the one that set up over the central/north sound this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pendleton is getting hammered right now. In the lower 20s now too per the ODOT cams. Looks like light snow falling in the eastern and central Gorge, with temps around freezing there. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

29 and light snow.  Currently have just under an inch right now.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I got caught up in the models, I usually don’t do that since I have seen so many over performances…I should have listened to you and Snowmizer. Just hard when you see basically every model showing zero or almost zero and temp maps in the 40’s. Not sure any temp map showed me at 28 degrees right now??? 

Just checked the 00Z ECMWF and it showed 31 or 32 in your area at this time.     But it also showed around 30 in North Bend right now and its quite a bit warmer.     Its just the Randy effect... it always works!   

[TeacherLori]

1 hour ago, SnowHawks said:

You mean Eugene to Bellingham?

I was thinking the exact same thing!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pendleton is getting hammered right now. In the lower 20s now too per the ODOT cams. Looks like light snow falling in the eastern and central Gorge, with temps around freezing there. 

It’s snowing here 2 Andrew

[Cold Snap]

Meanwhile here in the SE ridge. Currently 75 with a DP of 63. Feels like a more humid version of a classic Seattle summer day. Decently windy as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Had a really nice snow shower move in right as I was leaving for work. Looking at the ODOT cams, it looks like Silver Falls is getting rocked. 

It was snowing all the way down into Silverton, sticking to roads and about 1"+ above 800', you could tell below that this was the first time it had been cold enough for snow to stick. It was 29 at the house, 33 by the time I got to Silverton. Sticking at the edge of town, but sun was actually peaking through the clouds once I got to downtown. 

In Salem there were some wet snow showers, car thermometer in the 35-37 range in the city. 

[SpaceRace22]

Just landed at PDX and it was absolutely nuking snow on the whole descent until about 200ft off the ground. Then on the drive out of the airport we were starting to get some windshield splats, and the moment we crossed the river into Vancouver it changed to all snow and it's sticking rapidly.

This is actually happening, wow. 1/10/17 will be child's play when this is over.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Butler Hill along HWY 22 west of Salem heading towards Spirit Mountain Casino is seeing accumulating snow now. About 600'. 

[Chris]