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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Another possibly opportunity to drop .2in again😂😂

C3A5F28F-ED8C-42AF-92AE-205841ED3A4F.png

 

The weekend thing actually looks like an inch or inch and half.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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25 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Seems like there's less phantom snow and more of it falls at 30-32 degrees which is great to see

PDX soundings at 7 PM Wednesday is 32F/25F, so very much all sticking snow. Euro gives us several hours of decent precip after that point, up to about 2-3 AM. So yeah this should be legitimate sticking snow and not the phantom stuff. It also starts to drop into the mid 20s overnight so snowfall ratios might be a bit better with whatever moisture is left. 

image.thumb.png.0c10d118a29665151becd03cd3ee9721.png

image.thumb.png.8261df878ad6dce540e7bd04145254dc.png

image.thumb.png.da3d6b49d3180632cbcff8e4056e58f2.png

image.thumb.png.7c76c2962c5d4e98c09ab80ab380b436.png

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Actually a pretty cold ECMWF run.  Temps stay well below normal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I thought you had 1.5" last week?

Does graupel count as snow? I genuinely don't know, cuz we had 1" of that back in Dec.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Here's a new one.  Temps are marginal, but could be good enough.

1677585600-tvzibx79LhI.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Does graupel count as snow? I genuinely don't know, cuz we had 1" of that back in Dec.

Not sure.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

PDX soundings at 7 PM Wednesday is 32F/25F, so very much all sticking snow. Euro gives us several hours of decent precip after that point, up to about 2-3 AM. So yeah this should be legitimate sticking snow and not the phantom stuff. It also starts to drop into the mid 20s overnight so snowfall ratios might be a bit better with whatever moisture is left. 

image.thumb.png.0c10d118a29665151becd03cd3ee9721.png

image.thumb.png.8261df878ad6dce540e7bd04145254dc.png

image.thumb.png.da3d6b49d3180632cbcff8e4056e58f2.png

image.thumb.png.7c76c2962c5d4e98c09ab80ab380b436.png

Will shadowing be a problem in our areas? Usually I think the east wind helps us out so I don't think so but I'm not sure

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... and March 5-7th is just outside the range of the EPS currently which went out to March 4th on the last run.    It will be interesting to see if it starts showing the tell-tale strong cold signal over BC again in the long range in the next couple of days.  Could happen!  

Not sure I’d go that far yet, but I think it will be colder than the EPS is currently projecting D10-15.

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7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Will shadowing be a problem in our areas? Usually I think the east wind helps us out so I don't think so but I'm not sure

I doubt it, I would expect the west metro to do decently in this setup or at least no worse than any other part of town. Low is generally dropping south along the coast, being on the west end of town means you're a bit closer to the low and have some chance of benefiting from upsloping easterlies. 

This shouldn't be like the disaster we have with cold onshore flow and showers that get shredded by the Coast Range. 

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38 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Does graupel count as snow? I genuinely don't know, cuz we had 1" of that back in Dec.

Yes. It basically is a form of snow: snow that has rimed up with frost so much that the original snowflakes are no longer apparent.

Even though sleet is refrozen rain, sleet accumulations still count toward snowfall, too.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Wow!  Even the 7 to 10 period shows an average of 36.8 for SEA on the ECMWF which is a solid 7 degrees below normal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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20 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yes. It basically is a form of snow: snow that has rimed up with frost so much that the original snowflakes are no longer apparent.

Even though sleet is refrozen rain, sleet accumulations still count toward snowfall, too.

I knew sleet counted, but I was unsure about graupel because it's convective.  I know hail does not count toward winter snowfall totals or averages.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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35 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

I doubt it, I would expect the west metro to do decently in this setup or at least no worse than any other part of town. Low is generally dropping south along the coast, being on the west end of town means you're a bit closer to the low and have some chance of benefiting from upsloping easterlies. 

This shouldn't be like the disaster we have with cold onshore flow and showers that get shredded by the Coast Range. 

Hoping the UKMET verifies! Obviously that's unlikely but Euro looks great too

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36 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

I doubt it, I would expect the west metro to do decently in this setup or at least no worse than any other part of town. Low is generally dropping south along the coast, being on the west end of town means you're a bit closer to the low and have some chance of benefiting from upsloping easterlies. 

This shouldn't be like the disaster we have with cold onshore flow and showers that get shredded by the Coast Range. 

I think areas west of PDX will actually do better in this case in fact.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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EPS is looking great for an early March cold blast.  Looking like an amazing finish to winter.  I have to think SEA will end up scoring at some point.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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-NAO working its magic.  Thank the near record strong SSW for that one.

1678060800-mUKcSrJL1ZE.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm still a little bummed that Seattle folks aren't more excited about the coming pattern.  I get it though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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58 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

EURO temps trending in the right way. Going to be a cool 2 weeks ahead. 

Indeed.  A 31/21 at SEA on Thursday is top drawer stuff.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm still a little bummed that Seattle folks aren't more excited about the coming pattern.  I get it though.

For when?   You just discovered that the weekend "might still be alive" for a quick transition snow.   And yesterday you scolded us for looking at snowfall maps for this coming Wednesday system but tonight you are looking at snowfall maps for the middle of next week.  

Seems like you just talked yourself into being more excited.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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50 minutes ago, JW8 said:

I'm actually jelly. Would rather have that than cold rain. I know I'm in the 1% on here with that opinion though. Looking forward to summer!

We're not going to have much cold rain coming up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

For when?   You just discovered that the weekend "might still be alive" for a quick transition snow.   And yesterday you scolded us for looking at snowfall maps for this coming Wednesday system but tonight you are looking at snowfall maps for the middle of next week.  

Seems like you just talked yourself into being more excited.   😀

This is a legit cold pattern we're getting into.  I like cold pure and simple.  It still seems likely we will get snow before all is said and done anyway.  This coming pattern is worlds better than the typical late winter crap we normally see.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

We're not going to have much cold rain coming up.

Most of the precip in the Seattle area over the next 10 days is cold rain per the ECMWF. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What does it show for PDX on Thursday and Friday?

30/21, 38/20

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Most of the precip in the Seattle area over the next 10 days is cold rain per the ECMWF. 

Not much though. 0.9" with 2.5" of snow.

With the cold I call that way better than normal fare.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

This is a legit cold pattern we're getting into.  I like cold pure and simple.  It still seems likely we will get snow before all is said and done anyway.  This coming pattern is worlds better than the typical late winter crap we normally see.

Yes... I understand you like cold pure and simple.   But after 20 years on here you should know most people get really excited about snow.   Particularly snow going into cold.   I like 55-degree sun in January but it doesn't bum me out that people on here don't get excited about that.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not much though. 0.9" with 2.5" of snow.

With the cold I call that way better than normal fare.

Didn't notice until now that the ECMWF only shows .90 at SEA for the next 10 days.  Wow.  I get your point.   There won't be much cold rain or any rain at all for that matter.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Eye popping analogs tonight.  Huge potential in early March.

500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

-NAO working its magic.  Thank the near record strong SSW for that one.

1678060800-mUKcSrJL1ZE.png

And the EPS is starting to look colder in BC again towards the end of the run.   I think Andrew might be right about the March 5-7th period.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-8082400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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