PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[hawkstwelve]

Getting some blizzard-like conditions here with strong winds and moderate snowfall. We have received roughly 6 inches so far but have drifts that are much, much larger. Updated Blizzard Warning is calling for an additional 8-10 inches by tomorrow morning.

Crossing my fingers for all you folks to score too!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF total snow over the next week is very impressive down south.  

I think the 12 inches at shelton and through the canal is pretty nuts.

[BLI snowman]

Temp slowly dropping here under this current enhancement. Down to 32.9 and starting to stick a little more efficiently again. Could just be the precip rates but have to think some of that offshore flow is working its way into the mid levels here now. Doubt there will be much more warming here today.

[FroYoBro]

9 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

It's showing what was supposed to have already fallen as of 11am. And it's actually pretty close. This same map turns into 2-3ft across the whole metro shortly after that frame. Definitely not a bad map lol

He means it is already inaccurate. Sticking snow was not close to being that widespread this morning.

Edited February 22 by FroYoBro

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

31 degrees at home and just 32 here at work. Impressive 33 at Bremerton still.

[OysterPrintout]

4 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

It's showing what was supposed to have already fallen as of 11am. And it's actually pretty close. This same map turns into 2-3ft across the whole metro shortly after that frame. Definitely not a bad map lol

I drove apparently through 2-3" of snow my whole commute and just never realized it I guess.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Temp slowly dropping here under this current enhancement. Down to 32.9 and starting to stick a little more efficiently again. Could just be the precip rates but have to think some of that offshore flow is working its way into the mid levels here now. Doubt there will be much more warming here today.

Looks like we are at 37. Hasn't snowed since around 8:45. Hoping we can get some more soon

[Blizzard777]

37* with NNW winds of 20 in Federal Way. 
81* here in the Smokies today thus far but will be back home  tomorrow morning.  Mixed emotions as this really does feel good!  Enjoying all the reports from back home though. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Temp slowly dropping here under this current enhancement. Down to 32.9 and starting to stick a little more efficiently again. Could just be the precip rates but have to think some of that offshore flow is working its way into the mid levels here now. Doubt there will be much more warming here today.

Yup, down to 32.8 here with the east wind picking up in gusts. DP is down to 30. Snow still coming down hard, over an inch now and sticking even in the roads.

I had a fear we would waste some of our best moisture in the high sun angle afternoon but things still seem to be working out. Just an hour to go until peak insolation!

[Kolk1604]

49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF total snow over the next week is very impressive down south.  

Nice, I think it's decent for the region. Plenty of time for it to change too. Hoping amounts increase as we get closer. 

[SpaceRace22]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

He means it is already inaccurate. Sticking snow was not never close to being that widespread this morning.

Nuh uh

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

It's showing what was supposed to have already fallen as of 11am. And it's actually pretty close. This same map turns into 2-3ft across the whole metro shortly after that frame. Definitely not a bad map lol

You’re going to singlehandedly jinx this whole thing for us dude

[Timmy]

Dumping in town, hope the precip intensity can keep up

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

You’re going to singlehandedly jinx this whole thing for us dude

Ok

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Switching over to snow at river level here in S. Salem. Wonder if @Jakewestsalem is seeing some stickage with this band. 

[TacomaWx]

Looks like the northern end of the band is trying to creep into the south sound. Temps are too warm for stickage for the next couple hour’s most likely…but DPs look low enough for flakeage. Hopefully some precip comes after dark too. 

[RCola]

Euro and GEM hold serve for the weekend threat. Amazing how consistent they have been. Still think the skunk potential is high for the Seattle area. The low placement and strength isn't ideal. But given the surprise this morning, I'm hoping for a change in the right direction. 

Really rooting for the PDX peeps. It's time you guys get what we had Valentine's day 2021. 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

You’re going to singlehandedly jinx this whole thing for us dude

The homie flew in from Cali to experience this. He’s praying Portland gets two feet of snow instead of 2in lol

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Thinking there will be some totals in the sw washington nw oregon area in the 10-16 range when this is over.

[TacomaWx]

OLM reporting snow now. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The homie flew in from Cali to experience this. He’s praying Portland gets two feet of snow instead of 2in lol

I’ll say I really respect the level of dedication. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I bet this band drops 2-3" per hour snowfall rates once it gets into the foothills. 

 

[Omegaraptor]

Rain/snow mix Corvallis

[TT-SEA]

@MossMan play with the sound up.  Aren't you glad you aren't here today. 

[Deweydog]

Southerlies are back at PDX!

[umadbro]

NWS finally came to their senses.

[HuskyMaestro]

A pretty nice chilly Tacoma day. Could use some 10” of snow but this can do for now before hoping to score this weekend. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy snow falling now in S. Salem, but it's about 35 degrees, so not sticking. 

[TonyP]

That moisture plume around Olympia does seem to be heading north. Hopefully we can see some flakes in the Central Sound!

[thickhog]

Clark County looks like the winner today. Again.

[Mid Valley Duck]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Rain/snow mix Corvallis

This is about 15 west of you

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, TonyP said:

That moisture plume around Olympia does seem to be heading north. Hopefully we can see some flakes in the Central Sound!

Flurries in Seattle. 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 80 IMUBY (U stands for Uncle’s)

[Prairiedog]

I have a band moving just south of me going SE and might clip me but whats interesting temps have quickly jumped from 37 to 39f.  Previous shower bands were from the west or moving NW and temps would drop.  Must be a slight shift in wind direction but it was a quick jump in temp.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, umadbro said:

NWS finally came to their senses.

The atmosphere responded immediately here.

[joelgombiner]

The low seems to be pretty stationary near the mouth of Columbia. 

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Flurries in Seattle. 

Snowing again here in Redmond. 

[TacomaWx]

8 minutes ago, TonyP said:

That moisture plume around Olympia does seem to be heading north. Hopefully we can see some flakes in the Central Sound!

Hopefully later tonight too when temps are more favorable. 

[Cold Snap]

Based on radar it does look like the south sound might start getting in on some action soon.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Oly and Yelm are getting pounded

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Oly and Yelm are getting pounded

Little too warm now that it’s mid afternoon for accumulating snow unless there’s some high precip rates. Nice to see precip making it this far north though. 

[Perturbed Member]

Currently 37.5F and light rain.

I think we should start to do much better around here starting early this evening but feeling a tad nervous about it.

If the Euro is right, this is how much snow we will see from the 24 hours starting at 4 PM today. Not terribly impressive. 

The euro very clearly called for 1-2 inches here last night with temps at 32F/30F and that busted pretty badly. These kind of events can be harder for the global models to handle and perhaps the mesoscale stuff is more reasonable to look at (as was the case for 1/10/17) but the euro doesn't show anything too impressive tonight and that is a tad worrying.

[Cold Snap]

This was just posted for where I’m at… I don’t think those wind speeds are even close to meeting the Wind Advisory criteria but ok. 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Currently 37.5F and light rain.

I think we should start to do much better around here starting early this evening but feeling a tad nervous about it.

If the Euro is right, this is how much snow we will see from the 24 hours starting at 4 PM today. Not terribly impressive. 

The euro very clearly called for 1-2 inches here last night with temps at 32F/30F and that busted pretty badly. These kind of events can be harder for the global models to handle and perhaps the mesoscale stuff is more reasonable to look at (as was the case for 1/10/17) but the euro doesn't show anything too impressive tonight and that is a tad worrying.

On the other hand EURO *does* show some pretty robust precip coming through just before 4 PM and it's worth nothing temps on the east side are mostly conducive to sticking snow now that the offshore flow has turned on. Timing is super wonky on nearly every model 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

My parents place in Nanoose, just north of Nanaimo is already up to 4" with more on the way. They sent this picture from earlier in the day. Meanwhile the outflow is desicating every trace of moisture that tries to work it's way north of Bellingham. Just cold and windy in Victoria 

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Little too warm now that it’s mid afternoon for accumulating snow unless there’s some high precip rates. Nice to see precip making it this far north though. 

It’s nice to see precip almost to Graham now…. Seems like the precip shield is always a little farther north than anticipated 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Currently 37.5F and light rain.

I think we should start to do much better around here starting early this evening but feeling a tad nervous about it.

If the Euro is right, this is how much snow we will see from the 24 hours starting at 4 PM today. Not terribly impressive. 

The euro very clearly called for 1-2 inches here last night with temps at 32F/30F and that busted pretty badly. These kind of events can be harder for the global models to handle and perhaps the mesoscale stuff is more reasonable to look at (as was the case for 1/10/17) but the euro doesn't show anything too impressive tonight and that is a tad worrying.

Euro really pumped the brakes on the idea of explosive frontal stuff and seems more in line with rotating more in the way of stable deformation bands. I’m going with a blend of the GOLU and RRB (radar refresh button) models. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Can someone just reassure me that the moisture down in Olympia will make it to Seattle? Just say yes it will make it that far north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Little bit of a dusting at my brothers house in Coquille, on the Southern Oregon coast. They are about 10 miles inland. About 75' elevation. 

[thickhog]

Well, it was fun to have hope for a bit. There’s always next year.