PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Uhhhhh

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

WHOA. Pretty good for most of W. Oregon. Shows 14" up here..

If that verified, it would be the largest February snowfall for Medford since 1917 - which incredibly had 2 separate 5"+ storms.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uhhhhh

WOW. Looks like some of the CFS runs. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

AYO

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

WOW. Looks like some of the CFS runs. 

CFS has recently gone to crud. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uhhhhh

Interestingly it also shows temps around 40 that afternoon... something doesn't compute.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

AYO

Those would be record min/maxes 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uhhhhh

That would work. 

[Slushy Inch]

12 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

GEFS was a lot more snowy for this week

Oh yeah! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly it also shows temps around 40 that afternoon... something doesn't compute.   

IDK what to tell you. Those are still record or near record min/maxes. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Be interesting if the westerlies break through at the end on this one. It's going to happen eventually. 

[MWG]

[MossMan]

Can we password protect the temp maps from Tim….Those maps are a major buzzkill and are ruining my hopes and dreams. 

[Snownerd3000]

Drunkle sniffing glue again. Holy sh!t lol

[SouthHillFrosty]

I NEED MORE

[Fircrest]

28 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

My boss is still complaining about the lack of rain. Tried telling him yesterday the totals wouldn’t be that impressive at most of our sites. Sends an email to everyone saying prep for a long day but everyone’s going home mostly now

We've only had some light drizzle this morning but dry after that.  Strong shadowing from the Olympics here. I was hoping for more rain so I wouldn't have to do much yard work, haha.  But we are transplanting things and moving them around in the yard so it was good to get some of that done.  

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

IDK what to tell you. Those are still record or near record min/maxes. 

Oh for sure its very cold for this time of year.    But that map that shows literally all of the precip as snow even on the coast and in the lowlands with those temps does seem sort of suspicious right?    

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly it also shows temps around 40 that afternoon... something doesn't compute.   

That’s a max and temps lower with heavy precip.

[Doinko]

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Oh for sure its very cold for this time of year.    But that map that shows literally all of the precip as snow even on the coast and in the lowlands with those temps does seem sort of suspicious right?    

Chunky rain, and a lot of wet non-sticking snow.

[TT-SEA]

Don't get me wrong... the 18Z GFS is crazy and there are many snow chances coming up.    I am just trying to understand the GFS formulas.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

 

Need it to trend south, but at some point we are going to get slammed with wetter warmer systems.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I NEED MORE

At least that map wasn't at hr 384.

[Phishy Wx]

Miracle March on tap? 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Need it to trend south, but at some point we are going to get slammed with wetter warmer systems.

More likely that systems start to weaken.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Don't get me wrong... the 18Z GFS is crazy and there are many snow chances coming up.    I am just trying to understand the GFS formulas.  

whomever wrote their 'marginal temps' snow algorithm should be fired

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

More likely that systems start to weaken.

It's March, not May.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's March, not May.

Still, chance of windstorms drops off. 

[T-Town]

We may not get any snow here but we’ve got some wind driven drizzle in the bank and no one can take that away from us. 

[Phishy Wx]

winds ramping up and I think we may have posted our first 50 burger since November 5th here

[Slushy Inch]

Pepto for all! I could add caveats but that’s what we have Tim for.

[Gummy]

Gusty in the sound as advertised.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Still, chance of windstorms drops off. 

Oh yes, for sure. 

[Doinko]

NWS Portland AFD barely mentions anything about Wednesday night/Thursday morning snowfall. Most of what they are talking about is the Wednesday morning stuff.

[TT-SEA]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well I'm staring down the barrel of a possibly record-breaking, multi-day snowstorm. GFS shows almost 30 inches here by Friday while the Euro is probably more "realistic" at 14 inches and the GEM is in-between the two at around 17 inches.

Currently under a Winter Storm Watch for 10-16 inches of snow with gusts up to 50 mph. Blizzard conditions and 2 inch/hr rates likely Wednesday night. By Friday we should be within the top-five snowiest winters through this point of the season and will have probably broken a top-five all time snowiest two days of February record.

Wish I could be tracking and experiencing this storm with you all but at least it looks like PDX folks will have a shot at some white gold themselves. Wish you guys the best of luck!

Little snippet from the afternoon AFD from the Twin Cities NWS.    I think the amounts might exceed even what they are saying here.   

When you add it all up, most of the forecast area will end up with
12 to 18 inches. Locally higher amounts, 20 to 24 inches, aren`t out
of the question for areas that double dip with round 1 and 2. It`ll
be difficult to measure Friday morning, but the damage will be done
when you consider the widespread disruptions to daily life and
travel through this period. These conditions will be slow to improve
as winds slowly decrease and plummeting temperatures into the -5 to
-15F range limiting the effectiveness of road salt and continued
blowing/drifting snow Thursday night into Friday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I went from 40 to 48" in Kuchera on this run. This with a warming trend for the final day or so on this run... Hoping we can hang on until mid-March, but who knows. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Okay... While we were busy talking about clown range maps. WTF is going on with the GFS snow maps for W. Oregon Wednesday/Thursday. Holy moly.

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Okay... While we were busy talking about clown range maps. WTF is going on with the GFS snow maps for W. Oregon Wednesday/Thursday. Holy moly.

GFS GFS'n

[WhoNeedsAC]

23 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I NEED MORE

Seriously, what is up with these long-range models? It seems like there's been a major snowstorm 2 weeks to 10 days out for half the winter. Do they not take historical climatology into consideration at all? Or is it a scale thing, like the entire Willamette Valley is modeled at 5,000 feet?

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, WhoNeedsAC said:

Seriously, what is up with these long-range models? It seems like there's been a major snowstorm 2 weeks to 10 days out for half the winter. Do they not take historical climatology into consideration at all? Or is it a scale thing, like the entire Willamette Valley is modeled at 5,000 feet?

I need AC in the summer!