PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not much with the Sunday system... quick transition on this run.

Way better than last night's GFS which showed nothing but rain.

[Deweydog]

Doing my part for all Clark Countonians, even Jesse…

Listening to Rush, watching Degrassi Jr. High reruns while whipping up a batch of poutine.

[Doinko]

 

[Perturbed Member]

UKMET

[bainbridgekid]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Is there something wrong with Tuesday night snow?

Definitely not! It’s just before the really cold air gets here which might be why it doesn’t show much out over the Sound.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

UKMET

Looks pretty good. Nice 00z runs so far

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Is there something wrong with Tuesday night snow?

Well... even the GFS shows temps in the 35-37 degree range all night tomorrow.   

[MossMan]

Getting a bit stormy out there again! 

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, Doinko said:

Looks pretty good. Nice 00z runs so far

Yeah, WA County gets a solid 3-5 inches from UKMET. 

Good results from RGEM, GEM, GFS, ICON, GRAF. Hopefully 00z Euro looks more like the 12z run. 

So far no bad 00z runs except the trash NAM. 

[MossMan]

Rain is absolutely pounding off the roof right now and my wind chimes are chiming. 

[ShawniganLake]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM

Wow looks like a huge improvement here. Right on the edge of the pepto and then we get nailed with the weekend storm too.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

Currently windy in the gym. Seems like a couple fans turned on

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Rain is absolutely pounding off the roof right now and my wind chimes are chiming. 

Wind is ripping across the South Island currently. 10s of thousands with power. 70mph surge down the strait 

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah, WA County gets a solid 3-5 inches from UKMET. 

Good results from RGEM, GEM, GFS, ICON, GRAF. Hopefully 00z Euro looks more like the 12z run. 

So far no bad 00z runs except the trash NAM. 

WRF GFS is better too

 

 

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Does the SE ridge forming have something to do with it? I’m in Alabama right now and it was pretty windy here all day though not as much as that video.

Yep, SE ridge is the “windy” pattern here, as systems track to the north and cold fronts/pressure rises occur in the unstable warm sector, all of which increases vertical momentum transfer.

Around here, this is further augmented by the terrain upwind, deepening the boundary layer and accelerating streamflow via the Venturi effect.

For instance, tomorrow when this image is valid we will likely be experiencing 40mph winds despite the lack of a tight pressure gradient, for the aforementioned reasons.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting how the trough in the long range is too far west on this run, when last run it was trending east. Still amazing potential.

[Canadian guy]

35 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Perhaps this won't be a non-event in Victoria after all. Either way, things look much better for East Vancouver Island, approaching a foot of snow in Shawnigan with that. The low is still shown a bit too far offshore for the Seattle - Bellingham area.

Hopefully the trend continues over the next 24 hours to slowly increase the amounts in Victoria. 

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS really half assing the AFD today. Picking arbitrary and made up  snow levels. Also the low will not be moving into NW OR and will instead remain offshore on pretty much all models. Hopefully the late evening update is better. 

 As the low moves right over northwest Oregon, it will become more
convective and precipitation will become more showery and scattered.
Similar to the snow observed last week, could see a wide variety of
outcomes with some areas staying mostly as rain while others
transition to snow. Areas within the valley above 300 ft have the
higher likelihood of seeing accumulating snow. -Muessle

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

PDX NWS really half assing the AFD today. Picking arbitrary and made up  snow levels. Also the low will not be moving into NW OR and will instead remain offshore on pretty much all models. Hopefully the late evening update is better. 

 As the low moves right over northwest Oregon, it will become more
convective and precipitation will become more showery and scattered.
Similar to the snow observed last week, could see a wide variety of
outcomes with some areas staying mostly as rain while others
transition to snow. Areas within the valley above 300 ft have the
higher likelihood of seeing accumulating snow. -Muessle

Almost spooky how similar this setup is to last week's!

[OysterPrintout]

20 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

 

It's been kind of weird how KPTV is calling Wednesday their RED FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY. There really hasn't been much of super realistic possibilities of daytime snow during that day but EURO/GRAF have been super consistent for a few days that it's an overnight wednesday into thursday morning situation.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

PDX NWS really half assing the AFD today. Picking arbitrary and made up  snow levels. Also the low will not be moving into NW OR and will instead remain offshore on pretty much all models. Hopefully the late evening update is better. 

 As the low moves right over northwest Oregon, it will become more
convective and precipitation will become more showery and scattered.
Similar to the snow observed last week, could see a wide variety of
outcomes with some areas staying mostly as rain while others
transition to snow. Areas within the valley above 300 ft have the
higher likelihood of seeing accumulating snow. -Muessle

Hey, they did unearth the technical aspects of the fact there is a 60% chance of snow falling from the sky. I think that’s almost a 6 in 10 chance!

Edited February 21, 2023 by Deweydog

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still chilly but won’t have those wild Kuchera maps. 

[HuskyMaestro]

53 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This is an excellent point and something that I think everyone needs to be a lot more sympathetic toward professional meteorologists for. I know so many people who have zero clue about weather forecasting, but they will very confidently tell you how dumb and unreliable "the weather man" is. It's seemingly "common knowledge" that weather forecasts suck, even though forecasts have become remarkable accurate in recent years.

Professional mets get basically no slack when it comes to overpredicting significant weather, because then on the occasions where the significant thing doesn't happen, all people have to talk about is how wrong the forecast was. When they underpredict, but then something crazy still happens, no one cares because they are too busy talking about the crazy weather instead of the overly conservative forecast that didn't call for it to happen.

I can't remember what year in the 2010's when a snowmageddon was projected to bury New York City in feet of snow, but when they only got 2-4 inches of snow if I recall right because the models shifted around at the last minute, these weather forecasters got absolutely dragged through the filth and mud and were roasted off the Internet. There were death threats being spewed and calling for their jobs to be axed, despite the weathermen and women making it clear beforehand that the snow setup was sensitive to changes. Wish I can remember what exact winter season that was, but it was really depressing. 

[ShawniganLake]

The westerly surge is still increasing. Trial Island is currently 62mph gusting to 75mph. 

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Almost spooky how similar this setup is to last week's!

Better setup this time around with the offshore flow in place and more moisture potential, no? 

[Phishy Wx]

if only 00z NAM 3k.   WOW, Spokane

 

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

 

It's been kind of weird how KPTV is calling Wednesday their RED FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY. There really hasn't been much of super realistic possibilities of daytime snow during that day but EURO/GRAF have been super consistent for a few days that it's an overnight wednesday into thursday morning situation.

Right, there is no chance of anything interesting happening in a widespread way for almost all of Wednesday.

If anything Thursday should be the day they mark as a First Alert weather day. We have several models now continuing snow into Thursday AM and a sub freezing high or close might actually be possible if we got several inches. 

7PM Wednesday to 10 AM Thursday is probably where the focus should be. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Right, there is no chance of anything interesting happening in a widespread way for almost all of Wednesday.

If anything Thursday should be the day they mark as a First Alert weather day. We have several models now continuing snow into Thursday AM and a sub freezing high or close might actually be possible if we got several inches. 

7PM Wednesday to 10 AM Thursday is probably where the focus should be. 

There will be SCHOOL CLOSURES on Thursday.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

I can't remember what year in the 2010's when a snowmageddon was projected to bury New York City in feet of snow, but when they only got 2-4 inches of snow if I recall right because the models shifted around at the last minute, these weather forecasters got absolutely dragged through the filth and mud and were roasted off the Internet. There were death threats being spewed and calling for their jobs to be axed, despite the weathermen and women making it clear beforehand that the snow setup was sensitive to changes. Wish I can remember what exact winter season that was, but it was really depressing. 

I remember the forecasters getting absolutely slammed for this windstorm bust that was all the talk leading up to that day…Seems like ever since then they have been very conservative with any sort of wind event. 

[Doinko]

12 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

PDX NWS really half assing the AFD today. Picking arbitrary and made up  snow levels. Also the low will not be moving into NW OR and will instead remain offshore on pretty much all models. Hopefully the late evening update is better. 

 As the low moves right over northwest Oregon, it will become more
convective and precipitation will become more showery and scattered.
Similar to the snow observed last week, could see a wide variety of
outcomes with some areas staying mostly as rain while others
transition to snow. Areas within the valley above 300 ft have the
higher likelihood of seeing accumulating snow. -Muessle

In December they also just kind of used raw NBM values which were obviously way too cold, stuff like 21/14. Sometimes it feels like it's not even useful looking at their forecasts compared to Mark Nelsen and other mets

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Better setup this time around with the offshore flow in place and more moisture potential, no? 

 

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Better setup this time around with the offshore flow in place and more moisture potential, no? 

They are pretty different setups at a higher level. 

The 14th had a bunch of cold air spilling out over the ocean and coming at us from the NW. Cold onshore flow. You get a bunch of showers from the cold air interacting with the warmer ocean, some of which can get a bit more organized and form some decent bands of precip but you know this generally doesn't work reliably at the lower elevations here due to shadowing from the coast range and having westerly or southwesterly flow at the surface which often makes it just a hair too warm to stick at the lowest elevations. 

 

This is what will be happening by Wednesday

This very cold trough is coming at us from the NE in Canada. As the trough digs offshore, it will pick up moisture and form our low. We already have a bunch of cold air spilling out into the basin but this low will offshore strengthen offshore flow through the gorge and rotate precip over us. It looks like a deeper, more organized and vertically stacked low so it seems like it would more reliably provide precip coverage. 

I like this setup much more. 

[ShawniganLake]

The leading edge of arctic air is hanging out near a Prince George currently 

[GHweatherChris]

Why are people rooting for Oregon to score.... most of us don't live down there, also, I don't think commentary is needed with snow maps posted, the visual is enough.  I am super excited for my 8th trace of snow of this  winter.

[SpaceRace22]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Why are people rooting for Oregon to score.... most of us don't live down there, also, I don't think commentary is needed with snow maps posted, the visual is enough.  I am super excited for my 8th trace of snow of this  winter.

Maybe time to take a little break, bud.

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Why are people rooting for Oregon to score.... most of us don't live down there, also, I don't think commentary is needed with snow maps posted, the visual is enough.  I am super excited for my 8th trace of snow of this  winter.

 

[Weiner Warrior]

7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Why are people rooting for Oregon to score.... most of us don't live down there, also, I don't think commentary is needed with snow maps posted, the visual is enough.  I am super excited for my 8th trace of snow of this  winter.

Good call coach! We will win in the 4th quarter.

[Doinko]

31 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

 

It's been kind of weird how KPTV is calling Wednesday their RED FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY. There really hasn't been much of super realistic possibilities of daytime snow during that day but EURO/GRAF have been super consistent for a few days that it's an overnight wednesday into thursday morning situation.

The NWS is doing it too. They say snow possibilities "diminish" Wednesday night into Thursday, when that's probably our best chance for snow. I guess the NBM which they rely way too much on doesn't show much. Kind of ridiculous

 

[Weiner Warrior]

Meanwhile... 69 members. 

[GHweatherChris]

13 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Maybe time to take a little break, bud.

Nah I am good.