PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Is there something wrong with Tuesday night snow?

Gonna be with a maritime airmass, and will therefore be more marginal. Also, temperatures will rise well above freezing Wednesday afternoon, so there will be more significant melting than if it were to fall Wednesday night, since Thursday will struggle to hit freezing.

[HuskyMaestro]

17 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Why are people rooting for Oregon to score.... most of us don't live down there, also, I don't think commentary is needed with snow maps posted, the visual is enough.  I am super excited for my 8th trace of snow of this  winter.

[SouthHillFrosty]

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I remember the forecasters getting absolutely slammed for this windstorm bust that was all the talk leading up to that day…Seems like ever since then they have been very conservative with any sort of wind event. 

My senior homecoming dance got cancelled that night  so I threw a “typhoon party” instead. Good times 

[Sandy rocks]

It's one thing for the Weather service to be cautious, that understandable until they know for sure but to say that there is no chance of snow on Thursday at all seems very perplexing. On Wednesday, they are not calling for anything more than mixed showers or light snow.

[SpaceRace22]

7 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

It's one thing for the Weather service to be cautious, that understandable until they know for sure but to say that there is no chance of snow on Thursday at all seems very perplexing. On Wednesday, they are not calling for anything more than mixed showers or light snow.

I'm not sure what you are talking about. The NWS has Sandy under a Winter Storm Warning and is calling for up to 6" of snow over the next couple days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sitting out on the porch listening to the wind rip. Going to be some midnight highs. 

[Meatyorologist]

24 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Why are people rooting for Oregon to score.... most of us don't live down there, also, I don't think commentary is needed with snow maps posted, the visual is enough.  I am super excited for my 8th trace of snow of this  winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I'm not sure what you are talking about. The NWS has Sandy under a Winter Storm Warning and is calling for up to 6" of snow over the next couple days.

 

Looking good here.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sitting out on the porch listening to the wind rip. Going to be some midnight highs. 

Roaring here now! The westerly surge has begun to hit inland! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

King Euro time 

[RentonHill]

Probably strongest wind since January 2021(?) but I can’t be sure

[GHweatherChris]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

110% truth.

[SpaceRace22]

While y'all wait for the next few frames of the Euro, the HRRR is pretty good for Portland when you consider that this is only through 4pm on Wednesday:

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A little rain now. Temp down to 40. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

While y'all wait for the next few frames of the Euro, the HRRR is pretty good for Portland when you consider that this is only through 4pm on Wednesday:

I’ll take the clownish amount it shows here. 

[Deweydog]

We need a few more models.

[SpaceRace22]

The Euro so far is near identical to the GFS for the low placement, however it's about 3mb weaker than the GFS.

edit: whoops, nevermind lol. Euro wont be great for Portland.

[MossMan]

This was about 15min ago, much stronger now, trees are cracking and power is surging! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The Euro so far is near identical to the GFS for the low placement, however it's about 3mb weaker than the GFS.

edit: whoops, nevermind lol. Euro wont be great for Portland.

South?

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The Euro so far is near identical to the GFS for the low placement, however it's about 3mb weaker than the GFS.

edit: whoops, nevermind lol. Euro wont be great for Portland.

Looks okay to me

[FroYoBro]

CR!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh wow. The euro is incredible south of PDX and east of I 5. 

[Perturbed Member]

Euro vs GFS low placement, they are starting to come into pretty good agreement. Timing is a bit different too. 

 

[Requiem]

Only out to 60 hours on Pivotal but it could definitely be far worse

[Doinko]

What do Kuchera totals look like vs the 18z?

[Perturbed Member]

Seems pretty decent. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Seems pretty decent. 

2-3" for most of WA county. Looks like Kuchera is also slightly higher than 10:1 here, while it's lower in some places east of I-5

[Perturbed Member]

Washington

[OysterPrintout]

Gotta chop some of the euro totals since some of it is phantom snow during Tue/Wed. 

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, Doinko said:

2-3" for most of WA county. Looks like Kuchera is also slightly higher than 10:1 here, while it's lower in some places east of I-5

Yeah still pretty decent for WA county. Here is the 18z. The 00z is clearly a bit better. 

[Dave]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Seems pretty decent. 

I'm glad this is the Euro, which we all trust the most. The other models haven't looked favorable for the South Valley this evening. Let's go ahead and lock this in.

[Doinko]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah still pretty decent for WA county. Here is the 18z. The 00z is clearly a bit better. 

Seems like every model except the NAM is good for 2". That would be great

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Gotta chop some of the euro totals since some of it is phantom snow during Tue/Wed. 

Yeah, models seem to have fallen in love tonight with the idea of an impulse moving through Wednesday morning for some snow in the air.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Deweydog

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, Doinko said:

Seems like every model except the NAM is good for 2". That would be great

Yeah, every single model except the NAM gives PDX at least something. After accounting for some phantom snow, looking like 1-3 inches for PDX might be a decent bet right now. 

I am ignoring those convective looking solutions like the ICON which give much more for now and the NAM that seems like an outlier in the opposite extreme. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Why do weatherbell maps show more snow? 

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Why do weatherbell maps show more snow? 

The Kuchera ratio implementation on Pivotal almost always seems more pessimistic than Weatherbell from what I've noticed. Not sure why that is...

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah, every single model except the NAM gives PDX at least something. After accounting for some phantom snow, looking like 1-3 inches for PDX might be a decent bet right now. 

I am ignoring those convective looking solutions like the ICON which give much more for now and the NAM that seems like an outlier in the opposite extreme. 

UKMET kind of has something similar to the ICON to the north of the river too. Most models seem to think we'll do well here

[OysterPrintout]

At least we've sorta stopped the bleeding with the slight southern push and decreasing QPF. If we can hold the line here feel confident I will pick up at least the coveted 1" instead of TR

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah, every single model except the NAM gives PDX at least something. After accounting for some phantom snow, looking like 1-3 inches for PDX might be a decent bet right now. 

I am ignoring those convective looking solutions like the ICON which give much more for now and the NAM that seems like an outlier in the opposite extreme. 

I'm gonna go for a rather gutsy 2-4 inches-- could definitely be one of our better snow events since February 2021 (not counting April 2022, where snow didn't really stick around for too long afterwards)

[SilverFallsAndrew]